Veeps Don't Matter
Last night's VP debate did not move the political needle ... and are the polls missing Democratic voters.
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Yes, JD Vance lied repeatedly last night. My favorite fib was his claim that Donald Trump, who ran on repealing Obamacare, actually “salvaged” the health care reform measure.
The other moment that almost made my head explode was at the end when Vance said that Trump “ peacefully gave over power on January 20.”
Are you f’ing kidding me? Crediting Trump for handing over power peacefully on January 20, 2021, is like praising Imperial Japan for peacefully surrendering at the end of World War II.
Having said that, I thought Vance was relatively effective in the debate, particularly in attacking Kamala Harris. Yes, he lied, but he lied well, and for low-information voters, I imagine he seemed more reasonable than the negative media caricature of the past few months.
Walz played things closer to the vest, seemingly going out of his way to lessen the partisan heat and talk about policy solutions. At various points, I think he missed the chance to hit Vance. You might expect that to happen when a campaign thinks it’s leading and feels relatively confident … or perhaps Walz doesn’t feel as comfortable going after the jugular when facing off directly against a political opponent. It seems Minnesota-nice reared its head.
But at the end of the day, none of this matters. Vice presidential picks pretty much never matter in presidential elections — and VP debates matter even less. As the graphic above suggests, last night’s affair did not move the proverbial political needle.
Polling Problems
I want to pick up on something that Ron Brownstein tweeted last week.
It is a remarkably consistent (tho not uniform) pattern that media/academic polls show Harris at or above Biden 2020 % w/Whites but lagging him w/POC & young, while large-sample polls of those groups show better results for her. Gonna fuel lots of pollster after actions post-11/5.
I’ve mentioned this issue before, but perhaps the most important polling result of the year (both pre-and post-first debate) is sustained Democratic polling strength with white voters. Harris is continuing a pattern that started with Biden—matching or even topping Biden’s 2020 performance with this key cohort.
Harris's problems are with smaller demographic groups—voters of color and younger voters—but as I wrote back in June, this could be a polling issue.
Maybe since white voters make up a larger share of the population, it’s easier to get a large, representative sample, and the numbers are relatively consistent. And maybe since Black, Hispanic, and young voters make up a much smaller share of the population — and getting anyone to talk to pollsters is more difficult than ever— pollsters are forced to rely on smaller sample sizes and getting skewed, non-representative results.
At the time, I was skeptical that polling was a satisfactory explanation for what’s happening. But the fact that we’re seeing the same issue with vastly different Democratic candidates (white, old, male vs. Black, young-ish, and female) lends credence to the idea that this could be a systemic polling issue.
To Brownstein’s point above, check out the topline result from the latest Harvard Youth Poll, the gold-standard poll of younger voters.
A national poll released today by the Institute of Politics (IOP) at the Harvard Kennedy School indicates that among 18-to-29-year-olds nationwide, Vice President Kamala Harris holds a commanding 31-point lead over former President Donald Trump among likely voters in a multi-candidate matchup. The 48th Harvard Youth Poll shows Harris leading Trump 64% to 32% among likely voters in a two-way hypothetical scenario with her advantage expanding as young people become more engaged in the electoral process.
So here again, we have a large sample poll of a smaller demographic cohort with a result that matches what we would expect to happen in 2024. (As a frame of reference, in 2020, Biden won younger voters by a 59-35 margin). Considering the salience of abortion to younger voters and the fact that the Democratic nominee is significantly younger than Biden, this is a result you’d broadly expect.
Here’s the bottom line: if Harris is holding her own with young white voters (and every poll suggests that she is) and if national polling is undercounting her support among distinct minority groups, she should win handily in November.
Stupid Is As Iran Does
I may write something longer about yesterday’s failed Iranian missile attack against Israel, but suffice it to say, this is one of the dumbest military strikes in recent memory. From a military standpoint, it accomplished nothing, doing minimal damage in Israel and in no way reshaping the military balance of power in the region. From a political standpoint, for years, Israel has been looking for an excuse/opportunity to wipe out Iran's nuclear program militarily. Iran just handed Israel the casus belli on a silver platter.
So why did Iran do it? The obvious conclusion is that they believed they had no choice and that from a credibility/reputational standpoint, they had to do something to respond to the Israeli assassination of Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah.
It’s fair to note that Iran was in an impossible situation. To do nothing would make it look like Israel just bloodied their nose with no repercussions. However, that sub-optimal outcome is far preferable to the alternative: a likely punishing military response. Sending rockets into Israel’s population centers (vs. the more muted military strikes that Iran attacked Israel with in April) opens the door to a military retaliation from a much stronger rival. That rarely ends well. Moreover, this is a good reminder that fighting wars or using military force for reputational reasons is a terrible idea. Iran might have thought they had no choice but to “do something.” They’re wrong, and they will pay a grievous price.
The extent to which Israel’s enemies have consistently overestimated their military leverage and underestimated the tenacity of Israel’s response to military attacks since October 7 is really something.
Musical Interlude
I decided to go with another Grateful Dead show today because yesterday was the anniversary of one of my favorite late-era Dead shows — October 1, 1994, at the Boston Garden.
Any show with a “Help-Slip-Frank” and a “Scarlet-Fire” is worth a listen, but both versions of this show are monsters. As an aficionado of Scarlet-Fires, the ‘94 Fall tour was a high point for that couplet (I’ll get to the MSG show on 10-14-94, which I attended, in a few weeks). But the whole show is excellent. There’s a lovely “Terrapin” and “So Many Roads,” and I always enjoy a “Last Time.” Even the Vince Welnick song “Way To Go Home” is pretty good. A “Liberty” encore is a bit anti-climactic but let’s not nickpick. This is as good as it gets for late-era Dead and arguably stands up with any show from the band’s 30-year run. (I’ve included an audio link above and the video below).
The repeated unsuccessful aerial attacks on Israel make me wonder why the US doesn't provide the sort of passive protection employed by Israel to Ukraine. It seems less aggressive than sending weapons to attack Russia (although I think this is proper as well).
Should have said, if Trump dies, Vance becomes President.