I've attached the audio above for those who missed my Friday Zoom Chat with Elliott Morris. It was a fascinating conversation that focused mainly on the midterm elections but also touched on the census and redistricting and the role of abortion and guns in the midterm election.
One place Elliott and I found consensus is in the view that the impact of the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade and continuing anger over gun violence will be felt likely in just a handful of key states (Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and possibly Nevada, New Hampshire, Georgia, and Florida).
In some of those places, abortion and, to a lesser extent, guns have the potential to play an outsized role. In Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona, abortion could become illegal immediately if Roe is scrapped. In Pennsylvania, the Republican-dominated state legislature could pass a total abortion ban. That might also happen in Florida. Both developments could significantly impact the gubernatorial campaigns in both states and have a down-ballot effect on other races. In New Hampshire, Nevada, and possibly Colorado, overturning Roe could mobilize enough pro-choice voters to save vulnerable Democratic Senate incumbents.
While the situation in the House of Representatives looks increasingly dire for Democrats, the Senate is a different story. Republicans seem very committed to blowing their chances of winning Senate control by nominating a bevy of lousy candidates.
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