A Theory On Donald Trump's Madness

Trump's desperate need for attention, validation and dominance is America's new political reality.

I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality of American politics. If you were sent this email or are a free subscriber and would like to become a paid subscriber, you can sign up here.

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A Method To The Madness

I’ve spent the past few days interviewing Canadian political analysts for a piece I’m writing for MSNBC on Trump’s impact on Canadian politics. One common theme from those interviews stood out: no one seems to understand why Trump has imposed tariffs on Canada.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has a theory:

“What he wants is to see a total collapse of the Canadian economy because that’ll make it easier to annex us.”

For a moment, let’s step back and acknowledge that for a Canadian Prime Minister to make a statement like this is unprecedented and extraordinary. Trudeau is basically accusing Trump of declaring economic war on Canada.

What makes Trudeau’s statement even more astonishing is that it’s not clear he’s wrong. The New York Times has a report this morning with some simply incredible tidbits:

[Trump] told Mr. Trudeau that he did not believe that the treaty that demarcates the border between the two countries was valid and that he wants to revise the boundary. He offered no further explanation.

… While Mr. Trump’s remarks could all be bluster or a negotiating tactic to pressure Canada into concessions on trade or border security, the Canadian side no longer believes that to be so.

And the realization that the Trump administration was taking a closer and more aggressive look at the relationship, one that tracked with those threats of annexation, sank in during subsequent calls between top Trump officials and Canadian counterparts.

What adds fuel to the Canadian view about Trump’s motive is that his stated reason for slapping tariffs on Canada — curbing the flow of fentanyl into the country — can’t possibly explain the decision. Last year, 19 kilograms of fentanyl were intercepted at the Canadian border. By comparison, 9,600 kilograms were stopped at the Mexican border. So this ain’t about drugs.

I suspect what’s driving the trade war and much of Trump’s actions over the past six weeks is a desire for attention — and Trump’s belief that as long as his actions are getting media coverage and he is in the spotlight, that’s the best possible outcome for him (the country not so much).

Let me give you another example.

Earlier this week, the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump intends to issue an executive order to eliminate the Department of Education. Scrapping the DOE has been a long-standing conservative goal, but Trump can’t do it unilaterally. It requires an act of Congress. Moreover, doing away with the Department of Education is deeply unpopular—Americans oppose it 2-1. Taking a unilateral action that most Americans disagree with and that plays into the hands of your political opponents seems like a bad idea. But that’s been largely par for the course with Trump.

Indeed, this graphic from the Washington Post’s Aaron Blake is fascinating — and inexplicable.

• 83 percent opposed Trump’s pardons of violent Jan. 6 defendants (Washington Post-Ipsos)

• Around 70 percent of Americans opposed the administration’s move to rename the Gulf of Mexico the “Gulf of America” (Ipsos and Marquette University Law School)

• 70 percent opposed dismantling the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Ipsos)

• 62 percent in one poll and 74 percent in another opposed Trump’s plan to take control of Gaza (Quinnipiac University and Ipsos)

• 67 percent opposed freezing funds for public health agencies (Ipsos)

• As many as 65 percent opposed trying to take the Panama Canal (Marquette)

• 64 percent opposed his 25 percent tariffs on goods from Canada (Post-Ipsos)

• 60 percent in one poll and 64 percent in another opposed trying to make Canada the 51st state (Economist-YouGov and Reuters-Ipsos)

• 59 percent opposed his 25 percent tariffs on goods from Mexico (Post-Ipsos)

• 58 percent and 59 percent in two polls opposed dismantling the U.S. Agency for International Development (Ipsos and Washington Post-Ipsos)

• 58 percent opposed laying off large numbers of government workers (Post-Ipsos)

Then, there are the near-daily policy reversals. Days after taking office, Trump declared he would impose across-the-board tariffs on Mexico and Canada. Then, he blocked them from going into effect hours before the tariffs were to go into effect. Then this week, he announced 25% tariffs … and then quickly reversed them for certain industries.

Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency fired hundreds of thousands of probationary employees, but after a court ruling blocking the move (that should have surprised no one), agencies are now scrambling to rehire them. This follows a familiar pattern. Earlier job cuts at the CDC, Department of Energy, the Agriculture Department, and other agencies have also been reversed. The White House announced to great fanfare the use of military aircraft to transport deportees out of the country — and even promoted the endeavor with a White House snuff film. Now, the flights have been suspended because they are too expensive.

It might be tempting to attribute this to the general incompetence of the Trump administration — and with these individuals, that’s often the correct explanation. However, I‘m more curious about what’s motivating Trump’s actions.