Ain't No Fun Getting Old
We need to talk about Joe Biden's age again .. but it's far from clear that it will matter next November.
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This has been one of the crazy political weeks in recent memory. The GOP killed a border security bill they had demanded for months; the Republican-led House of Representatives, again, drove its clown car over a cliff; Nikki Haley lost to nobody in the Nevada primary; Trump’s ferkakta immunity argument got shot down in the DC Court of Appeals and then the Supreme Court debated whether he can appear on the presidential ballot.
And then this happened (first, the good news for the White House).
The special counsel investigating President Biden said in a report released on Thursday that Mr. Biden had “willfully” retained and disclosed classified material after leaving the vice presidency in 2017 but concluded that “no criminal charges are warranted.”
Not so fast, Democrats.
While Mr. Hur decided not to prosecute Mr. Biden, 81, some of the reasoning he cited for his decision immediately created a new political crisis for the White House. In recounting his interviews with the president, Mr. Hur portrayed him as unable to remember key dates of his time in the Obama White House — or even precisely when his son Beau had died.
“Mr. Biden would likely present himself to a jury, as he did during our interview with him, as a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory,” Mr. Hur wrote.
He cited Mr. Biden’s age by the time he would leave office — either in 2025 or 2029 — as an additional factor. It would be difficult to convince a jury that “a former president well into his 80s” was guilty of a felony that “requires a mental state of willfulness,” Mr. Hur added.
I have a host of thoughts about this.
First, this an absolute cheap shot from special counsel Robert Hur. It is needless editorializing that looks an awful lot like a purposeful effort to embarrass the president politically. This is precisely what Jim Comey did to Hillary Clinton in 2016. It was wrong then, and it’s wrong now. There was simply no need for Hur to say this, and the claims of faulty memory are belied by the plain text report, which makes clear there was not enough evidence to charge Biden with a crime. If that’s true, then Biden’s likely defense is irrelevant.
Biden’s lawyer, Bob Bauer, said, “The report uses highly prejudicial language to describe a commonplace occurrence among witnesses: a lack of recall of years-old events. This language is not supported by the facts, nor is it appropriately used by a federal prosecutor in this context.” While it’s always dubious to agree with a plaintiff’s lawyer (whose job is to defend his client zealously), Bauer is right. At least to Hur’s credit, he laid out the key differences between Biden’s handling of classified material and Donald Trump’s willful retention of such material — and his refusal to cooperate with investigators in returning them to the federal government.
Still, the political damage has been done, and the release of Hur’s report has led to more hand-wringing over Biden’s age.
Before I delve into the politics of this situation, let me get one thing out of the way.
Biden is 81 years old.
If he finishes out a second term, he’ll be 86.
He looks frail and old.
There’s a real question — which has not really come up — of whether he can serve a full second term.
Poll after poll shows voters are concerned about the issue.
If Biden were an 81-year-old incumbent Republican president, liberals would be demanding that the press talk about the age issue.
This is a long way of saying that Biden’s age is highly relevant, and political reporters should absolutely be addressing it. While I think Hur crudely attacked Biden … once he used it to justify not prosecuting Biden, there was no chance that reporters would not seize on it. And they were right to do so.
If I have any criticism of how the press handles this issue, it is that they focus on Biden’s memory slips rather than the far more important question of whether his age is affecting his ability to do the job of president. Last night, at a hastily assembled press conference, Biden referred to Egypt’s president, Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, as the leader of Mexico — and it received significant (and negative) media attention. There was less focus on Biden’s cogent and compelling discussion of the situation in Gaza and his efforts to strike a deal that would release Israeli hostages and stay the fighting. But reporters love gaffes.
The question reporters need to ask is whether Biden’s age makes it difficult for him to carry out his presidential responsibilities. Is he checked out? Is he making bad decisions, etc? Is there concern in the White House about his mental faculties? I don’t see much evidence this is an issue for Biden. He did an impressive job handling the debt limit negotiations last year. He has expertly managed the crisis in the Middle East, and the same can be said for the war in Ukraine. Since many of these decisions are made behind closed doors, it can be hard to tell how much his age affects Biden’s performance. But we’ve seen report after report — including from Republican members of Congress that Biden remains sharp and dialed in on policy.
Still, the age issue is a major problem for Biden’s reelection. The reason that the White House press conference happened last night is that Biden wanted to rebut Hur’s conclusions … and there’s a reason he’s not doing the annual Super Bowl interview for the second straight year. His staff is afraid he’ll make a gaffe. Democrats can’t complain about the press coverage of Biden’s age when it’s obvious that the White House is trying to protect him from these questions.
Does It Matter?
Having said this, I don’t know how relevant Biden’s age will be in the Fall election. Don’t get me wrong: voters will continue talking about it. But will it stop them from voting for Biden? On this, I’m not so sure.
I suspect that the age factor is largely baked in with the electorate. Votes know that Biden is old, and they are concerned about it, but it’s less clear that it costs him a significant number of votes. Consider the alternative: vote for the sociopathic, insurrectionist, likely-convicted felon?
To put on my “Tom Friedman Anecdote is Data” hat, I was struck by a recent conversation with an old college friend. He is a long-standing Republican who, in recent years, has switched sides as the GOP has descended further into the MAGA swamp. He texted me last week and said this about Biden: “He sucks” and “He is obviously too old to do this job.”
But, he also said, “I’m a never Trump Republican,” and he plans to vote for Biden in the Fall. Keep in mind, this is a guy who would probably prefer to vote for a Republican, but with Trump on the ticket, it’s not even a discussion. I know this is anecdotal, and regular readers of Truth and Consequences will know that I hate when political analysts use anecdotes as data almost as much as I hate warm fruit pie and Billy Joel.
But I think this particular story is instructive because I doubt that it’s an isolated view. I suspect that many Americans are not in love with Biden and fear he’s no longer up to the job, but simply can’t imagine a scenario in which they sit the election out or vote for Trump. Look, I’ll be honest. 2019 I wrote a column expressing my concerns about Biden’s age. I think he’s probably too old to do the job for four more years … but this election isn’t between Biden and a palatable young whippersnapper. It’s between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. I’ve said for a while that I think an inanimate carbon rod could beat Trump in 2024, and I still tend to believe it. To the extent that the election is a referendum on Trump, the age factor will pale in importance.
Musical Interlude
The more news I read: the more frustrated I get. Supposedly the reason why people read the news is to become informed about issues. Biden's age is an issue! It's fair to discuss it! But here we are focusing on Biden screwing up the President of Egypt with the President of Mexico. THAT SAME DAY Trump AND Mike Johnson made similar mistakes and nobody cared; if gaffes were a sign of mental decline: then there should be focus on Trump, at least, as much as Biden.
I would argue that if you had not watched that conference you could be told many stories. I will propose one and I will offer what I saw as the story the media presented:
Story 1: Joe Biden angrily defended his use of classified documents, apologized for not watching over his staff closely enough, and used the report the Special Counsel presented to promote his innocence. He angrily sparred with reporters, deflecting questions about his age. Finally, he offered a detailed answer about his administration's diplomatic efforts in the Middle East, and misspoke on President el-Sisi saying he was the President of Mexico not Egypt. Former President Trump & Speaker Mike Johnson made similar flubs that same day.
Story 2: Joe Biden angrily defended his use of classified documents, and claimed he was mentally fit to be President. He then couldn't remember that President el-Sisi is the President of Egypt, and said he was the President of Mexico instead.
Both stories are, technically, true. Which one is more true? The first story. Which one did the media run? The second. Why? Because the second one generates more clicks.
Michael - All that political stuff is important, but loving the 4 Tops! Give us more - and Temptations, Smokey Robinson and the Miracles, Supremes, and so much more! Great tonics in the midst of these dreary dicussions!