All Aboard The Presidential Train
The GOP presidential field is getting crowded. A Republican out-of-touch update and a plea to ignore Robert Kennedy Jr. Also, an update from my day job!
I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, ’ absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality. If you were sent this email or are a free subscriber and would like to become a paid subscriber, you can sign up here.
So as I have mentioned at various points over the past year, I am working on a project at Tufts University looking at the assumptions underpinning the US war in Afghanistan. Our first paper was published last week, and it looks at the origins of the war — and the Bush Administration’s decision-making in the Fall of 2001. Here are the major takeaways.
Four throughlines of US involvement in Afghanistan were cemented in those early days in the fall of 2001.
First, from the initial hours after the 9/11 attacks, US leaders believed that the use of American military force in Afghanistan was unavoidable and even a preferred outcome. From September 11 until the initiation of hostilities on October 7, 2001, the Bush administration set out a clear and consistent path toward war in Afghanistan and largely rejected the path of diplomacy or political negotiations.
Second, US officials treated Afghanistan as an abstraction. As the first of what US leaders expected would be many theaters for combating global terrorism, Afghanistan was seen as a venue for demonstrating American resolve rather than an independent country with unique politics, culture, and history. As a result, the United States failed to make key distinctions, including differentiating between the Taliban and al Qaeda. Instead, both organizations were often conflated and treated as if they shared similar interests and objectives.
Third, Bush administration officials believed they could alter Pakistan’s strategic calculus pertaining to Afghanistan. They repeatedly glossed over the fact that Pakistan’s interests did not align with those of the United States. As a result, Pakistan would often undermine US efforts in Afghanistan for the next two decades.
Fourth, fearful of entanglement in a long-term nation-building project, US government officials believed they could carry out the Afghanistan mission on the cheap, fob off responsibilities to others and quickly wash their hands of the country. The United States set broad goals for the war on terrorism—and for the post-Taliban mission in Afghanistan— while failing to deploy commensurate resources and bureaucratic attention to achieve its objectives.
Above all else, however, US officials and, in particular, President George W. Bush, framed the 9/11 attacks and the US response to them in simplistic, black-and-white language that limited strategic options, precluded most political or diplomatic solutions, and created a policy straitjacket from which future administrations struggled to extricate themselves for fear of domestic political costs and reputational damage. The overarching assumption, reached within hours of the 9/11 attacks, was that a war between the United States and the Taliban in Afghanistan was necessary. The paradox is that within a matter of months, the United States had defeated the Taliban and routed al Qaeda, but Washington had failed to fully recognize and effectively capitalize on that initial victory.
You can read the whole thing here.
Hats In The Ring
The Republican presidential race is getting crowded. This week, former Vice President Mike Pence, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum are expected to throw their hats in the ring. This seems a far cry from a few months ago when it seemed that frontrunner Donald Trump would face little competition for the GOP’s top nod as former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin demurred from taking him on.
On the surface, it might seem that Republican candidates are responding to Trump’s perceived vulnerability, but I suspect that it has more to do with Ron DeSantis than the former president. I can’t imagine that Pence, Christie, Burgum, Tim Scott, Asa Hutchinson, or any other GOP candidates seriously believe they can defeat Trump in a nomination contest. But if Trump’s candidacy falls apart because of health infirmity, criminal prosecution, or some other factor we haven’t considered, the big question is who will be there to pick up the pieces.
Since the beginning of the year, the overarching assumption was that DeSantis was the most likely to emerge from the “Not Trump” crowd. But with his poll numbers declining; his underwhelming campaign trail appearances; his disastrous campaign announcement on Twitter; and the overall lack of excitement about his candidacy, the competition to be the top non-Trump candidate has intensified. It’s gotten easier to imagine a circumstance in which Trump falters and a full-fledged race for the Republican nomination begins. Throwing a hat in the ring today is, I suspect, less about beating Trump and more about being in the arena should the 600-pound gorilla in the room exit stage left. Based on the current poll numbers, the GOP presidential race is Trump’s to lose, but if he’s out of the picture, it could be up for grabs — and if that’s the case, please pass the popcorn.
Out Of Touch
Several months I vowed that I would have little to say about Nikki Haley’s candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination. I’m making an exception today to illuminate a larger point about how out-of-touch the Republican Party is with the median American voter.
In an appearance Sunday night at a CNN Town Hall, Haley made this extraordinary and deplorable comment.
Let’s put aside the fact that this is Grade-A bullshit. The vast majority of teenage girls who are dealing with suicide ideation are not heterosexual girls stressed out about the possibility of sharing a locker room with biological boys … but rather trans and gay girls who are stressed out about rising homophobic sentiments that Republican politicians like Nikki Haley are actively fanning.
But perhaps the most extraordinary thing about Haley’s statement is that she says that biological boys playing in girls’ sports is the “women’s issue of our time.” Only if you spend your time marinating in the fetid discourse of the conservative fever swamp could you believe this is true. Gun violence is the number one cause of death among American children today. Beyond that, since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and abortion because illegal or severely restricted in much of red-state America, girls and women are dealing with the ramifications of becoming second-class citizens.
But, of course, Haley is locked into a position on guns and abortion that prevents her from acknowledging these are issues of serious concern for girls, women, boys, and men. On guns, she wants more of them in schools, not less. On abortion, she’d rather change the subject. Rather than talk about the issues that actually resonate with voters — and shaped the 2022 midterms — Haley is catering to the small subset of culture warrior GOP voters.
Haley’s approach to trans issues — and her ostrich-like approach on guns and abortion — might play in a Republican primary, but it’s a non-starter in a presidential election. Of course, that is true for every Republican candidate, even Trump (though he’s arguably more savvy on abortion than the rest of the GOP aspirants), and it’s ultimately the biggest problem facing the party. (In a recent appearance in Iowa, Ron DeSantis used the word “woke” 7 times in 35 seconds). Republicans can only speak to the issues that motivate their base of voters. They are stuck in a feedback loop of their own making. Until Republicans figure out how to broaden their message and meet the American voter where they are, they will have a very difficult time winning a national election soon.
Crazy Is As Crazy Does
Michael Scherer of the Washington Post did a deep dive into the candidacy of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for president. Kennedy is polling around 20 percent in Democratic primary polls. However, I wouldn’t put much stock in these numbers. They are almost certainly a combination of dissatisfaction with Biden and the Kennedy name. If RKF Jr. were Robert Smith Jr, he’d be lucky to hit 2 percent in the polls. Also, if Democratic votes knew anything about Kennedy and the simply insane set of conspiracy theories, he believes Kennedy wouldn’t be polling as well as he is. Scherer does a nice job of exposing Kennedy’s views. Among other things, he’s a full-on anti-vaxxer — and that was true before the COVID vaccine. In fact, Kennedy spent years pushing the discredited notion that vaccines cause autism. In addition, he believes that the CIA killed his father and uncle (John F. Kennedy). He has called Tucker Carlson “breathtakingly courageous” and blames America for provoking the war in Ukraine. As one person in Scherer’s piece puts it, “His entire worldview has become a conspiracy theory.” Name any conspiracy theory, no matter how far-fetched, and there’s a reasonable chance that Kennedy believes it.
I know this will sound hypocritical because I have publicly defended CNN’s decision to host a town hall with Donald Trump — and I am wary of political reporters deciding which candidates merit coverage and which ones don’t — but I’m not sure reporters should give Kennedy a platform to spout his nonsense. Unlike Trump, he’s not a serious candidate and has no chance of unseating Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee for president. There’s legitimate reason to believe that he is using the opportunity to run for president — and the free media exposure that comes with it — to spread dangerous misinformation. It’s hard for me to see what good would come from covering Kennedy like he’s a real presidential candidate. It’s far easier to see the danger.
Will Biden Get A Serious Challenge?
As long as we’re talking about “challengers” to President Biden, a reader asked this morning, “I'd like to see a rundown of plausible democratic challengers to Biden's nomination and what it would take for someone serious to challenge him.”
There’s a pretty straightforward answer to this question. There are no plausible candidates who will challenge Biden’s nomination.
Aside from the aforementioned RFK Jr., Marianne Williamson has entered the race, but she is not a plausible challenger to Biden. Serious primary challenges to incumbent presidents are relatively rare (the last time it happened was in 1992 when Pat Buchanan took on the incumbent president, George H.W. Bush). If there is a primary challenge, it usually comes from a rival wing of the party (see: Buchanan challenging Bush from the right in 1992; Ronald Reagan doing the same in 1976 to Gerald Ford; Teddy Kennedy taking on Jimmy Carter from the left in 1986 and Eugene McCarthy and Robert F. Kennedy challenging LBJ, mainly over this conduct of the war in Vietnam, but nominally from the left). But today, both parties are relatively homogenous, so these kinds of ideological challenges are more difficult to mount.
In addition, primary challenges rarely succeed, and more often than not, they weaken the incumbent. (You’ll note that of all the challenges I mentioned above, the incumbent lost or dropped out). No serious Democratic candidate, no matter how unsatisfied they are with Biden, will risk weakening the president with the prospect of a Trump rematch on the horizon in 2024. And even if they did, none of them would emerge victorious. The key to winning a Democratic presidential primary is black voters, and while Biden’s numbers have slipped among this cohort, there is simply no candidate of stature who can wrestle them away from the president (particularly with a black woman on the ticket). Moreover, to challenge an incumbent president, a prospective candidate would need to raise a ton of money, which likely isn’t going to happen either.
In an open Democratic party, one could imagine a host of potential nominees — California Governor Gavin Newsom, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Vice President Kamala Harris, and maybe Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg or Senators Klobuchar and Booker. Why would any of them risk upsetting Democratic voters by challenging Biden when they could wait four years and run in 2028? It’s not as if Vice President Kamala Harris looks unbeatable. So, for better or worse, Democrats are stuck with Joe Biden.
What’s Going On
The levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere continue to rise.
It looks increasingly likely that Ukraine blew up the Nord Stream pipeline.
Twitter’s ad sales continue to plummet.
Musical Interlude