American Politics is Weird
Every day there is new polling evidence that Democrats are more than holding their own in the run-up to November's midterm elections.
I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality of American politics. If you received this email - or you are a free subscriber - and you’d like to subscribe: you can sign up below.
First, a quick housekeeping note. Unfortunately, I must cancel my Friday Zoom Chat again as I need to pick up my daughter from camp. However, I think I will try and do a quick Zoom chat on Thursday night. My dilemma is whether to schedule it before the January 6 Committee primetime hearing, which begins at 8:00 PM or after to wrap up what we heard. I’m curious what people prefer (I don’t have a preference either way), so if you could add a vote in the comments section, I’ll proceed accordingly). I’ll send a note out tomorrow morning letting you know what I decide.
Polling Weirdness
This week, John Sides and Robert Griffin wrote a piece for the Washington Post, pointing out that things have returned to normal in at least one area of American politics.
When Joe Biden was elected president, a common refrain was that he would usher in a new era of “normalcy” after four chaotic years of President Donald Trump. But in certain ways, normalcy hasn’t returned. This is visible first and foremost in the inflation rate, which in May was higher than at any point since 1981.
But this growing inflation, and the resulting pessimism about the economy, has restored one thing to normal: the historical relationship between how Americans view the economy and how they view the president.
As Sides and Griffin note, during the Obama and Trump years, something very unexpected happened — no longer did presidential approval ratings move in concert with the electorate’s views about the economy. Usually, as the latter goes, the former follows. But both Obama and Trump underperformed relative to people’s views on the economy. Throughout his presidency, Trump’s approval rating remained mired in the low to mid-40s, even as people gave high marks to the state of the economy. A similar situation occurred with Obama. Sides and others argued that the disparity was a by-product of political polarization. Even with things going well in the country, voters weren’t willing to give a president of a different party credit for it.
For Biden, the electorate’s negative views about the economy are clearly dragging down his approval numbers — but we do not see the same effect for congressional Democrats. This week, we have three new polls tracking the generic congressional ballot.
The Economist/YouGov poll gives Democrats a 3-point advantage. Morning Consult/Politico has Democrats up 4. CNN shows the race dead even. All three polls also have Biden deep underwater with the electorate.
Now, it’s often been the case that this far out from the election, the incumbent party holds its own on the generic ballot, but as we get closer to the election, things begin to fall apart. This happened to Democrats in 2010 and 2014. So take all this with a grain of salt.
But individual polls tell a similar story of Republican underperformance. I’ve written before about the disparity in the Georgia polling results for Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker and incumbent governor Brian Kemp. Last week, the latest poll from the state showed Kemp up 7 points over Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams and Walker down 3 points to Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock. That’s the same ten-point gap between the two Republicans that we saw in a poll earlier this month. That tells me that the spate of bad stories buffeting the Walker campaign is taking a major toll on his candidacy — and is yet further evidence that candidate quality will likely be a serious issue for Republicans this Fall.
In Iowa, the latest Iowa Poll has incumbent Chuck Grassley up 47-39 over his relatively unknown Democratic challenger, Mike Franken. According to the Des Moines Register, “the margin is narrower than in any Iowa Poll match-up involving Grassley since he was first elected to the U.S. Senate. Grassley has not polled below 50% in a head-to-head contest since October 1980, before he went on to defeat incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. John Culver.”
I think Chuck Grassley will win reelection, but this appears to be a closer race than anyone would have expected — and, in general, it’s never a good thing for an incumbent to be below 50 percent in a reelection campaign (undecided voters traditionally break for the challenger). One might argue that there is an anti-incumbent factor at play here — or there is the fact that Grassley is 88 years old, and voters might be looking for a change.
But then I saw a new poll out of Washington State, which shows five-term incumbent Patty Murray crushing her Republican opponent by a 53-33 margin. In January, a poll showed Murray beating a generic Republican opponent by a much narrower 42 to 39 margin with 19 percent undecided. On the generic congressional ballot, Democrats lead in Washington 51 to 32, which may provide some solace to Democratic Rep. Kim Schrier, who is in a toss-up race for reelection. Keep in mind, even though Washington is one of the bluer states in the country, Biden’s approval rating stands at a dismal 31 percent, and three-term incumbent governor Jay Inslee is at 40 percent. One might expect that in this lousy political environment for Democrats, with a profoundly unpopular Democratic president, it would drag down Democratic incumbents and boost Republican ones. But instead, we are seeing the opposite.
Finally, there is Michigan, where trial heats between incumbent governor Gretchen Whitmer and her potential Republican rivals show her double-digit leads and polling above 50 percent in all but one of the match-ups. Down ballot, Democratic incumbents running for attorney general and secretary of state are also ahead. Now, it’s worth noting that in the past several months, the Michigan Republican Party has fallen off the crazy tree and pretty much hit every branch on the way down. Still, that’s an important factor: it suggests that voters are following the election closely and that extremist GOP candidates are taking a toll on the party’s image.
This might all be polling noise, and as we get nearer to the election — and voters pay closer attention — Republicans will see their numbers improve. But we are 100 or so days out from the midterm elections, and I have a hard time finding any poll results that show Republicans are on their way to a massive victory in November. This is not to say that Democrats will hold the House and Senate (the former still feels like a very long shot), but there is a lot more uncertainty with this midterm election than any other in recent memory.
Meanwhile in Maryland
There was a primary election in Maryland yesterday, and this happened:
Conservative Republican Del. Daniel L. Cox vigorously fought against the certification of President Biden’s 2020 victory and Maryland’s coronavirus mitigation measures.
He launched a failed attempt to impeach Republican Gov. Larry Hogan, accusing him of malfeasance in office, theft of “the people’s liberty and property,” and “deprivation of the religious liberties of the people.”
As rioters stormed the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, he called Vice President Mike Pence “a traitor” in a tweet he then deleted — later expressing regret for his choice of words.
Now, Cox is projected to become the Republican nominee for governor in November to replace the outgoing Hogan. With former president Donald Trump’s endorsement, he beat Kelly M. Schulz, the former state commerce secretary, in a race shaped by deep divisions across the country between members of the GOP establishment and supporters of former president Donald Trump.
Maryland is a very blue state — although Hogan is a two-term Republican incumbent — so Democrats were likely always going to be favored in this race, but Cox, who is also stridently anti-abortion and pro-gun, is a train-wreck. He will likely get crushed in November.
Democrats have received criticism because they threw their financial backing behind Cox, believing he would be a weaker general election candidate than Schulz. This can be a dangerous strategy (see: Donald Trump. 2016), but I think parties need to maximize their chances of winning elections — and if that means helping flawed but extremist candidates win party nods, so be it. Maryland might be an exception because of Hogan’s tenure in office, but in general, the gap between an extremist Republican and a less extremist Republican is not that wide. It’s also the case that Cox won by 16 points. I’m confident that a $1 million Democratic ad buy is not the reason for his double-digit victory. Cox is the Republican nominee that the state’s GOP voters wanted.
But there’s a broader issue here as well. It’s increasingly clear that Republican extremism is weakening the party’s image with voters, so the more “Don Coxes” there are on GOP tickets, the easier it is for Democrats to run on the issue. Cox’s victory bolsters the global argument that the GOP has gone off the deep end. If Democrats believe Republican extremism, writ large, is their key to success in November, the election results last night in Maryland give them another big boost.
Our Deranged Former President
This is simply astonishing:
The November 2020 election took place 624 days ago … and LAST WEEK, Trump called the Speaker of the Wisconsin Assembly asking him to decertify the results. Even if Vos did it, what possible difference would it make? Trump still wouldn’t be president. It’s yet another reminder that what drives Trump’s mania about the 2020 election is a deep-seated inability to admit that he lost the race.
I’m also greatly amused that Vos said he respects Trump’s position even though he points out it would be unconstitutional. Vos’s fidelity to the rule of law is nothing if not stirring.
What’s Going On
As my kids would say, this Secret Service story about deleted texts is suss.
I fear we will hear more stories like this one of overseas residents leaving the United States because of fears about gun violence.
The prosecutorial noose is tightening in Georgia on Trump supporters who tried to overthrow the election.
A woman in Texas was forced to carry a dead fetus for two weeks because her doctors feared running afoul of the state’s draconian anti-abortion law.
Musical Interlude
(I can’t mention Maryland and not play this song).
After the committee meeting would be best, because we'd be spending our time trying to guess what they would be covering...besides I have a Zoom call scheduled for 7pm that I cannot blow off for a second week in a row. My sister is full blown Q and I try to restrict the nu mber of times we speak, but We nedd to talk this week.
I wish I had a meaningful vote, but I have a longstanding commitment tomorrow that will force me to miss the hearing, the men's 200m world championship final, and your chat. I'd been looking forward to seeing you on Friday. Oh well. (By the way, given your tweet two days ago about Adrián Beltré being a top five third baseman, I was going to ask who you thought the other four were, or did you not have a specific four in mind? Maybe Schmidt, Boggs, Brett, Mathews? Or Jones or Robinson or Santo? The pity is, Beltré was marooned here in Seattle for his weakest years statistically, in a park not suited to hitters, in what should have been the prime of his career.)