Biden's Ukraine Speech Annotated
Yesterday, President Biden offered a master class on foreign policy speechmaking in the midst of a crisis. I break it down below.
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Biden Annotated
Today, I’m working on part 2 of the “tale of two leaders” post — and focusing on Vladimir Putin — but I wanted to do a quick follow-up on yesterday’s post.
Tuesday afternoon, President Biden delivered a brief set of remarks on Ukraine. They serve as a valuable complement to what I wrote yesterday about his handling of the crisis. For a politician who is often (not unfairly) accused of muddling his words and speaking imprecisely, yesterday, Biden offered a master class in clearly and cogently laying out a policy position.
At the outset, he said this:
From the beginning of this crisis, I have been absolutely clear and consistent: The United States is prepared no matter what happens.
We are ready with diplomacy — to be engaged in diplomacy with Russia and our Allies and partners to improve stability and security in Europe as a whole.
And we are ready to respond decisively to a Russian attack on Ukraine, which is still very much a possibility.
Through all of the events of the last few weeks and months, this has been our approach. And it remains our approach now.
As a former speechwriter, this practically made me swoon. It embodies the old and time-tested speechwriter trick of starting a speech by “telling ‘em what you’re gonna tell ‘em.”
Then Biden does something that has been perhaps the most impressive element of his public statements on the crisis. He makes clear — at the outset — that the US is committed not just to diplomacy but to addressing Russia’s security concerns.
Yesterday, the Russian government publicly proposed to continue the diplomacy. I agree. We should give the diplomacy every chance to succeed. I believe there are real ways to address our respective security concerns.
The United States has put on the table concrete ideas to establish a security environment in Europe.
We’re proposing new arms control measures, new transparency measures, new strategic stability measures. These measures would apply to all parties — NATO and Russia alike.
And we’re willing to make practical, results-oriented steps that can advance our common security. We will not sacrifice basic principles, though.
Nations have a right to sovereignty and territorial integrity. They have the freedom to set their own course and choose with whom they will associate.
But that still leaves plenty of room for diplomacy and for de-escalation. That’s the best way forward for all parties, in our view. And we’ll continue our diplomatic efforts in close consultation with our Allies and our partners.
Rather than browbeating Putin or demonizing him, Biden is treating the Russian leader with respect. He suggests that Putin’s concerns regarding Ukraine are legitimate and merit negotiation. That leaves the door open to a diplomatic solution, but more than that puts the onus on Putin to compromise. It’s interesting that Biden doesn’t reiterate US redlines in the crisis, like, for example, his refusal to publicly disavow NATO membership for Ukraine. From a public diplomacy standpoint, the takeaway from Biden’s remarks is that the US is acting in a conciliatory manner, and it’s up to Putin to meet him halfway. Later in the speech, Biden will stake out the US line in the sand on Ukraine and the response if there is an invasion … but he leads with the off-ramp, not with bluster.
Biden continues on that theme by suggesting that Russia has nothing to fear from the US and NATO:
The United States and NATO are not a threat to Russia. Ukraine is not threatening Russia.
Neither the U.S. nor NATO have missiles in Ukraine. We do not — do not have plans to put them there as well.
We’re not targeting the people of Russia. We do not seek to destabilize Russia.
To the citizens of Russia: You are not our enemy. And I do not believe you want a bloody, destructive war against Ukraine — a country and a people with whom you share such deep ties of family, history, and culture.
Seventy-seven years ago, our people fought and sacrificed side by side to end the worst war in history.
World War Two was a war of necessity. But if Russia attacks Ukraine, it would be a war of choice, or a war without cause or reason.
Clearly, the Russians don’t see things this way. They view NATO as a military threat, but again Biden is seeking to put the onus on Putin for the crisis. If the speech is heard or read by the Russians people, it also undermines the Kremlin talking points on the crisis.
Next, Biden reiterates a position he has stated multiple times: that an invasion of Ukraine will lead to severe consequences for Moscow:
If Russia proceeds, we will rally the world to oppose its aggression.
The United States and our Allies and partners around the world are ready to impose powerful sanctions on export controls, including actions that did not — we did not pursue when Russia invaded Crimea and eastern Ukraine in 2014. We will put intense pressure on their largest and most significant financial institutions and key industries.
These measures are ready to go as soon and if Russia moves. We’ll impose long-term consequences that will undermine Russia’s ability to compete economically and strategically.
And when it comes to Nord Stream 2, the pipeline that would bring natural gas from Russia to Germany, if Russia further invades Ukraine, it will not happen.
As I noted yesterday, it’s been hard to find much ambiguity in Biden’s rhetoric on Ukraine, and this is more of the same. He specifically references the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline. He talks of controls on Russian exports and says that sanctions will focus on Russia’s financial institutions. It’s true that Biden is not offering a specific set of sanctions that would be imposed, but I don’t see a great deal of confusion here on what the US is prepared to do if Russia invades Ukraine.
Biden also reiterates the US commitment to NATO:
The United States will defend every inch of NATO territory with the full force of American power. An attack against one NATO country is an attack against all of us. And the United States commitment to Article 5 is sacrosanct.
… And if Russia invades, we will take further steps to reinforce our presence in NATO, reassure for our Allies, and deter further aggression.
This is important in two regards: Biden is offering reassurance to NATO allies and by making clear the US commitment to NATO’s defense, he’s implicitly reminding Putin that this commitment does not extend to Ukraine.
Biden also does something that I haven’t seen from him before — he prepares the American people for the possible consequences of war:
I will not pretend this will be painless. There could be impact on our energy prices, so we are taking active steps to alleviate the pressure on our own energy markets and offset rising prices.
We’re coordinating with major energy consumers and producers. We’re prepared to deploy all the tools and authority at our disposal to provide relief at the gas pump.
And I will work with Congress on additional measures to help protect consumers and address the impact of prices at the pump.
Finally, Biden ends by again putting the onus on Putin for war:
Two paths are still open. For the sake of the historic responsibility Russia and the United States share for global stability, for the sake of our common future — to choose diplomacy.
But let there be no doubt: If Russia commits this breach by invading Ukraine, responsible nations around the world will not hesitate to respond.
So what you have here is a speech that precisely clarifies the US position on the crisis:
We don’t want war, and we’re willing to work with Russia to avoid it.
We understand and respect Russia’s security concerns.
If there is a war, it’s because Russia and specifically Putin made that choice.
We will respond to a Russian invasion, not with force but sanctions intended to punish and isolate Russia.
Our commitment to NATO is sacrosanct, and we’ll use military force to uphold it.
See point #3
It certainly is easier to give a speech like when you hold the moral high ground, but there are plenty of ways that the US response could have gone south. A different leader could have personalized the conflict, not clearly delineated US interests, or been unclear or uncertain about the potential US response to a Russian invasion. Biden has done none of that. Yesterday was more of the same.
What’s Going On
Trump’s former Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke not only lied to ethics officials, but broke numerous ethics rule. His tenure at the Department of Interior was clouded by one scandal after another. Now he’s running for a congressional seat in a red district in Montana, which he is expected to handily win. It’s yet one more depressing reminder that Trump and those around him have avoided accountability because Republican voters are more interested in rewarding them, than punishing them.
The Onion is undefeated.
Chris Cuomo … kind of a sleazy guy.
Noreen Malone has a smart piece on our current era of anti-ambition.