Calm Down

Kamala Harris might still lose to Donald Trump but the presidential race remains unchanged.

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Everything Is Fine (No Seriously, It Is)

Yesterday, social media was in a state of collective freakout because of sudden fears that the 2024 campaign had suddenly begun to slip away from Kamala Harris.

I assume what’s driving this is a couple of Quinnipiac polls that show Trump ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin (but losing in Pennslyvania) and this weirdly sourced piece in Axios about Democratic bed-wetting.

There's growing worry among Democrats that Harris seems stuck, even sliding a bit, after a strong start to her young presidential campaign. Her media blitz, heavy spending and largely favorable coverage don't seem to be moving the needle much, if at all, these Democrats say.

Two quick polling points. Quinnipiac has Harris down four points in Michigan. Its last poll in the state had her up five. If you think the Michigan electorate has moved 9 points in the past few months, I have a bridge to sell you. Second, the Detroit News poll had Harris up three, and the Marquette Law School survey, which is considered the gold standard in Wisconsin, had her up by four points. That doesn’t mean those more pro-Harris polls are correct, but it means if you’re freaking out about the one negative poll, you’ve decided to play “Choose Your Own Polling Adventure.”

(I also need to mention that the aforementioned Axios piece quotes James Carville … who, as I will continue to point out, has not worked on a successful presidential campaign in 32 years — a period in which Democrats won the popular vote in every presidential election except for one. Why reporters continue to treat this guy as some kind of political oracle is a constant and unending source of amazement.)

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Then there is this:

Harris is up 2.6 points in FiveThirtyEight’s national average. Guess how much she was up a month ago — 2.6 points!

This is a remarkably static race.

If the Harris campaign is concerned that they’re not moving the polling needle in her direction … that seems reasonable. It’s gotta be a little concerning that Trump has had a terrible month, yet she’s not expanding her lead.

But keep this in mind: She is maintaining a narrow lead, and, more importantly, there’s no evidence that Trump is expanding support beyond his ceiling of around 46 percent. If neither candidate can move the needle, the advantage goes to the one leading AND who has multiple paths to 270 electoral votes. That’s Kamala Harris.

Does that mean she is going to win? We’ll see, though I think the race tilts in her direction. But nothing has changed in the last few days.

One Other Thing …

A talking point that you hear quite often from pessimistic Democrats is that the polls underestimated Trump’s support both in 2016 and 2020 (and that was particularly true of state polls). That’s true. But there’s a worthwhile counterpoint: polls consistently understated Democratic support in the 2022 midterms and in 2023 special elections. So, which one will end up happening in 2024?