I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality of American politics. If you received this email - or you are a free subscriber - and you’d like to subscribe: you can sign up below.
Today is my birthday, so this will be a shorter post than usual. In honor of turning … um … 41 (no not really), I’m having a birthday sale! Twenty percent off a year of Truth and Consequences. So if you’ve been thinking about subscribing, here’s your chance to make an old guy’s day.
America is Not Doing Nothing
Over at MSNBC, I have a new piece up about the increasingly bizarre disconnect between what the Biden Administration is doing to help Ukraine in its fight to resist Russia and the increasing criticisms that the US is not doing enough.
As I note in the piece, “Congress on March 10 passed bipartisan legislation that would provide Ukraine with more than $13 billion — $6.5 billion for military assistance and a roughly equal amount in humanitarian aid. Biden last week announced another $800 million in military aid to Ukraine, including “800 anti-aircraft systems, 9,000 anti-armor systems, 7,000 small arms like shotguns and grenade launchers, as well as drones and other military equipment.”
In addition, the “United States has organized the most debilitating — and speedily enacted — international sanctions in modern history.” These moves are having a catastrophic effect on the Russian economy.
One might imagine that such efforts would count for something — and yet we’re still heading calls for a no-fly zone over Ukraine and complaints that the US is not expediting the transfer of Polish MiG fighters to Kyiv. Neither step would do much to shift the strategic balance in Ukraine. Kyiv has plenty of fighters, and a no-fly zone (aside from risking nuclear war) wouldn’t significantly degrade Russia’s current weapons of choice — indiscriminate artillery strikes and missile attacks on Ukrainian civilian targets.
Instead, as I argue in the piece:
What the U.S. can do is precisely what it’s doing now: provide military assistance that is most beneficial to Ukraine (i.e., Javelins not jets, anti-aircraft weapons, not aircraft); help the millions of refugees who have fled the country; and continue to squeeze Russia economically. This might seem unsatisfactory to those who want immediate results, but it’s unquestionably the single best strategy for stopping Russian aggression and preventing a wider conflict.
America’s armed forces might be the biggest tool in the U.S. foreign policy toolbox. But it’s just not always the best one.
You can read the whole thing here.
For the New Republic, I have another new piece — this one looking at China’s role in the Ukraine conflict. Over the past few days, there’s been a great of speculation over the past few days that Beijing may be inclined to distance itself from Russia and what has become an increasingly disastrous war. I make the opposite argument: that while the war has created a headache for China, the country’s relationship with Russia — as a bulwark against the West — is too important. As a result, China will more likely than not stick with Russia for the foreseeable future.
Scorched Earth
It’s getting increasingly difficult to avoid the conclusion that Putin’s strategy in Ukraine is to pummel the Ukrainians into submission. What exactly would be the military objective of bombing a shopping center?
It’s impossible to say whether this strategy will succeed — though it doesn’t look promising. Russian officials demanded that the besieged Ukrainian city of Mariupol surrender and were basically told to take a long walk off a short pier. In addition, diplomatic negotiations do not appear to be making significant progress. It’s also difficult to divine what the Russian objective is at this point. A military victory is a poisoned chalice since there’s little reason to believe that Russia can hold the gains that it hopes to make on the ground.
Moreover, with President Biden referring to Putin as a “murderer” and a “thug” — and Secretary of State Blinken calling him a “war criminal” — the US appears to have completely abandoned its pre-war position of strategic empathy toward Russia. To be sure, this shift is understandable. Putin is a war criminal and a thug. But once the US adopts that kind of language, it becomes very difficult to see how international sanctions against Putin ever get lifted. Ordinarily, I’d be ok with that, but Russia is the 11th largest economy in the world, and further isolating it from the global economy will cause a great deal of suffering.
What’s Going On
This is a fantastic story about the last two Western reporters in Mariupol and the lengths they had to go to avoid capture by Russian troops.
Former Missouri Governor Eric Greitens … kind of a jerk.
Trump donors passed around Ashley Biden’s pilfered diary at a fundraiser and debated where its release could help President Trump’s reelection campaign.
I recently finished Alfred Lansing’s book about the ill-fated Shackleton expedition to the South Pole. It’s legitimately one of the best non-fiction books I’ve ever read. I was inspired to pick it up because undersea explorers recently found the wreckage of Shackleton’s ship — the Endurance.
Musical Interlude
Over the weekend, I did some serious vinyl shopping and picked up a copy of the Cowboy Junkies “The Trinity Session.” This is legitimately one of my favorite records of all time. Recorded on a single microphone in a Toronto church, it’s ethereal and gorgeous, highlighted by Margo Timmins's breathless, fragile vocals and the band’s dirge-like accompaniment. The album is probably best known for its cover of the Velvet Underground’s “Sweet Jane,” but to my mind, this cover of Patsy Cline’s “Walkin’ After Midnight” is the best track on the record.
I've been wondering how well the anti-aircraft and anti-tank weapons are working. We hear about the success of the anti-tank but I think what we hear includes the British anti-tank weapon. I haven't heard anything about the anti-aircraft successes other than in terms of luring Russian plans into protected airspace, but whether that protection are these shoulder fired weapons or larger ones, idk. To what extent are we heavily and quickly pumping money into the manufacturers without accountability?