Choose Your Own Adventure

2024 Presidential Polling is all over the place; and also an update on the mess that is Israel/Gaza

I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality. If you were sent this email or are a free subscriber and would like to become a paid subscriber, you can sign up here.

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A Few Quick Thoughts On The Situation In Gaza

It seems that President Biden played hardball with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu …. and it worked.

President Biden threatened on Thursday to condition future support for Israel on how it addresses his concerns about civilian casualties and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, prompting Israel to commit to permitting more food and other supplies into the besieged enclave in hopes of placating him.

… By the middle of the night in Jerusalem, Israel made its first gestures to Mr. Biden. In a statement, a spokeswoman for the U.S. National Security Council said Israel had agreed to use the Ashdod port to direct aid into Gaza, to open the Erez crossing into northern Gaza for the first time since the Hamas terrorist attack on Oct. 7, and to significantly increase deliveries from Jordan.

I think there are two ways to look at this. The first is that the Israeli government has been dragging its feet on humanitarian assistance in Gaza, which has created major tensions with the United States. But after the killing of seven aid workers earlier this week, it was no longer possible for Netanyahu to refuse to bow to American demands. With the leverage of international and US outrage over the deaths, Biden was able to push Netanyahu in a way that he wasn’t able to before. From a domestic political standpoint, Biden had to get tough on Israel — and publicly.

The second is that Biden is making these threats because he wants to send a message to progressive Democrats who are upset about the war … but he likely doesn’t intend to condition aid or stop supporting Israel’s war in Gaza. So this is kinda, sorta a big deal, but ultimately, there is probably more smoke here than fire.

The fact is, Israel has withdrawn a significant number of troops from Gaza, and there isn’t much fighting happening in the enclave right now. There’s also little indication that the IDF is planning to launch a full-scale assault into Rafah, which is quite clearly the administration’s red line. I would still expect that Israel will conduct military operations in Rafah, just more precise and discrete than what we’ve seen to date.

What about a ceasefire? I found this passage in the NYT’s reporting very interesting and troubling.

Biden administration officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the private call in more detail, said that Mr. Netanyahu agreed to additional commitments intended to assuage the president. Among others, the officials said, Israel would promise to institute more measures to reduce civilian casualties and to empower negotiators brokering a temporary cease-fire deal in exchange for the release of hostages.

Axios’s Barak Ravid is reporting something similar.

Sorry, but this is not helpful. Biden pushing Netanyahu to make a hostage deal sends a clear message to Hamas: demand more concessions in negotiations. If the talks fall through, Bibi will get the blame. Hamas has an obvious strategy — throw as many Palestinian civilians against Israeli bombs and bullets, knowing that Israel will get blamed and pressure will grow to stop the war. There is already little incentive for Hamas to reach a deal on the hostages. Why should they give up their most significant piece of leverage for a ceasefire that the US is already pushing Israel to accept? The more Hamas holds out, the more Israel gets blamed, which is how things have played out for the past several weeks.

But here’s the bottom line: Biden’s biggest concern is not Israel’s security or Hamas—it’s his reelection. And you know what? That’s okay. No US president will put the needs of even a close ally ahead of his political future, especially when the outcome could be another four years of Trump. American supporters of Israel may not like it, but they shouldn’t be surprised either.

What A Mess?

According to the Wall Street Journal’s most recent poll, Biden is toast.

Donald Trump is leading President Biden in six of the seven most competitive states in the 2024 election, propelled by broad voter dissatisfaction with the national economy and deep doubts about Biden’s capabilities and job performance, a new Wall Street Journal poll finds.

The poll of the election’s main battlegrounds shows Trump holding leads of between 2 and 8 percentage points in six states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina—on a test ballot that includes third-party and independent candidates. Trump holds similar leads when voters are asked to choose only between him and Biden.

The one outlier is Wisconsin, where Biden leads by 3 points on the multiple-candidate ballot, and where the two candidates are tied in a head-to-head matchup.

Overall, the poll shows substantial unhappiness with Biden among voters who will have the most influence in the outcome of the election, as expanded one-party dominance in states has left just a few as politically competitive.

That is pretty bad stuff … but wait.