Cue The Bedwetters!
More bad polling news for Joe Biden, but also reason to wonder how bad it really is. Also, is Haley-mentum a thing?
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How Worried Should Democrats Be About Joe Biden?
Well, this is not good if you’re a Biden supporter.
This might be even worse news.
From early 2019 through today, we have now polled a Trump/Biden match-up 16 times. This is the first one of them to show Trump ahead.
Democrats on cue.
But here’s why perhaps you shouldn't invest in that Hari-kari sword quite yet.
Trump leads Biden 46-42% among 18-34-year-olds
For the record, if Trump beats Biden among 18-34-year-olds, not only will Biden lose the general election by way more than 2 points … but I will eat this computer.
I don’t discount the possibility that young voters will stay home in 2024. That’s a potentially serious problem for Biden in 2024. But in 2020, Biden won voters 18-29 years old by 24 points. If you believe there will be a 28-point shift from Biden to Trump in 2024 among young voters … see above (keep in mind that my computer is made of meringue … though I hate meringue).
It simply doesn’t make any sense to see a shift that large in ANY race, but especially one with a candidate (Trump) who stands on the opposite side of where most young voters are on major political issues — and has made no real effort to reach them.
It’s numbers like this that make me question how seriously political pundits should weigh these polls. It’s true that Biden’s numbers are particularly, even historically bad, but they are showing up in a political vacuum. It’s easy to be anti-Biden when the next election is 11 months away. It’s a lot harder when you’re in the polling station, facing a choice between two candidates. Will these young voters feel the same way about Biden after his campaign spends the next year reminding them that Trump is anti-abortion, anti-democracy, anti-gun control, and is a bit crazy and kind of a jerk?
(To the latter point, read Hannah Knowles on how insults, name-calling, and horrible personal behavior are the defining features of Trump’s political rallies.)
To the latter point, Biden spoke at a fundraiser earlier this week and delivered a message that you will hear a lot between now and November 2024.
Now Trump is running for president bragging about how he “killed Roe v. Wade,” quote. But he’s trying to change that now, too, if you notice.
So, let’s be absolutely clear what Trump’s bragging about. The only reason there is an abortion ban in America is because of Donald Trump. The only reason teenagers in Ohio are being forced to travel out of state to get their healthcare is because of Donald Trump. The only reason a fundamental right has been stripped away from the American people for the first time in American history is because of Donald Trump.
Do these lousy Biden numbers look the same after this message is pounded in voters’ heads for the next 11 months? Maybe, but then maybe not. The election results from the past few elections suggest that a strong, pro-abortion message from Democrats is an effective tool for mobilizing Democratic voters.
My skepticism about the current polling is why I’m not sure I should take concerns about Biden’s age all that seriously, either. For example, Nate Silver has been on a rampage as of late, calling on Dems to dump Biden and playing up voter concerns about his advanced age.
But I’m not sure the polls tell us anything other than Biden’s age is a “big” problem RIGHT NOW. We don’t know if these concerns will be the same when the choice is between 81-year-old Joe Biden and potentially convicted criminal Donald Trump. We simply don’t know if the possibility of a second Trump term will outweigh those concerns.
Ordinarily, I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss such bad poll results. In nearly any other presidential race, I’d be hesitant to argue that an incumbent president can weather such lousy numbers a year before an election.
But this is not a normal political environment, and Trump is not a normal political figure.
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On Friday, I wrote about Nikki Haley’s improving poll numbers in New Hampshire and the consolidation taking place in the GOP nomination race.
One of the most apparent benefits that Trump has enjoyed in this race is that he’s facing a multi-candidate field. It’s one of the reasons he won in 2016 — the anti-Trump wing of the party split their voters in early voting states among several candidates. But this year, candidates are dropping like flies, so much so that it’s not inconceivable we’re down to 2-4 candidates by the time of the Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire primary. With Haley’s strong establishment support, maybe she creeps up enough in the polls to make the early states competitive, and then the race continues, as Trump is mired in court battles scheduled to begin in early March..
On Sunday, Axios ran a piece headlined: “The incredible shrinking GOP presidential field.”
The Republican presidential field is smaller and shrinking faster than eight years ago, raising the chances former President Trump finds himself in a head-to-head contest in some early primary states.
Why it matters: The goal for most remaining candidates is to make themselves the sole alternative to Trump, who is still heavily favored to win the nomination.
The faster they can get there, the better they like their chances.
Driving the news: Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley has vacuumed up many of Sen. Tim Scott's (R-S.C.) major donors after her fellow South Carolinian dropped out last week.
… What they're saying: The GOP consolidation is happening faster than anyone anticipated, multiple people involved in the campaigns tell Axios.
… "There's a massive amount of pressure from everything from the establishment conservative media to donors for a non-Trump candidate — for that to coalesce," one GOP political strategist told Axios.
As I noted on Friday, I don’t think this means Trump is in trouble.
Trump’s national standing among Republicans is stronger than ever.
But he remains slightly below 50 percent in New Hampshire and Iowa. If the presidential field further shrinks; if it becomes a two-person race between Trump and Haley; if Haley is within single digits in NH and Iowa and has the momentum heading into Super Tuesday … well, that’s a lot of ifs. But that’s the kind of result that, at least theoretically, could make life difficult for Trump. At the very least, it might make it harder for Trump to keep skipping GOP debates. And remember, he’s supposed to go on trial on March 4 in Washington DC. Super Tuesday is the next day.
The problem for Haley and never-Trumpers is there isn’t much evidence that Republicans are souring on Trump or that they will be inclined to change their votes because of his various criminal trials. Maybe that changes when a trial isn’t an abstract notion but an actual media event — or maybe it further strengthens him. I’d lean toward the latter, but as I’ve noted before, we’re in uncharted territory. Still, for the first time since the GOP race began, one can imagine a scenario in which Trump is, at the very least, threatened by one of his Republican rivals. Like I said the other day, “the smart money is still on Trump,” but this situation is worth keeping an eye on.
Truth be told, perhaps the most significant political impact of a Trump-Haley race is that he will say something a) horribly racist, b) horribly misogynistic, or c) both, and it will remind swing voters why they can’t stand him.
Go Lions!
I spent the weekend in Detroit to see my beloved Lions in person … and it was a helluva comeback!
Musical Interlude
I know I’ve posted this before, and this is not the best audio, but listen to this about once every few weeks … and you should, too. This link has much better audio, but I can’t embed it here.
Here’s another video I probably watch once a month .. it’s amazing the great music you can produce with just one chord.
One more regular listen …
Any advice on how to mentally cope with this "poller coaster ride" for the next 12 months? I'd be more freaked out about the polls if Democrats didn't keep winning elections. Plus Trump has been electoral poison for Republicans since 2016. I can't see how him referring to people who voted against him as "vermin" and "lunatics" is going to widen his appeal.