Don't Overthink It
Democrats keep winning elections. Maybe that's telling us something about the state of American politics.
I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality. If you were sent this email or are a free subscriber and would like to become a paid subscriber, you can sign up here.
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On A Roll
Remember those polls earlier in the week that showed President Biden’s approval rating in the crapper and him trailing Donald Trump in all but one swing state? Well, it doesn’t seem to be holding back Democratic candidates.
Democrats won decisive victories in major races across the country on Tuesday evening, overcoming the downward pull of an unpopular president, lingering inflation and growing global unrest by relying on abortion, the issue that has emerged as their fail-safe since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade last year.
In races in parts of the South and the Rust Belt, Democrats put abortion rights at the center of their campaigns, spending tens of millions of dollars on ads highlighting Republican support for abortion bans.
The Democratic governor of Kentucky, Andy Beshear, won a second term, after repeatedly criticizing his Republican opponent for initially backing a state abortion ban that contains no exceptions for rape or incest. In Virginia, Democrats won control of both chambers after an avalanche of advertising focused on abortion. In Pennsylvania, Democrats won a seat on the State Supreme Court, in a race that also saw a flurry of abortion-related ads.
And in Ohio, a ballot measure establishing a right to abortion in the State Constitution won by a double-digit margin.
This wasn’t an ordinary win. Except for Mississippi (one of the reddest states in the country), where Governor Tate Reeves secured another four years, Democrats ran the table. In Kentucky, Beshear was expected to win, and considering how hard it is to dislodge a reasonably popular incumbent governor, even when they are a Democrat in a red state, his victory was not a major surprise.
In Virginia, pre-election polling showed Democrats with a narrow advantage, and this is a lean blue state, so that result is not necessarily a shocker. As for Ohio, pro-choice abortion referenda have repeatedly won since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.
But, when we widen the aperture, the results are far more stark. Quite simply, the Republican brand stinks; even an unpopular Democratic president is not dragging down his party’s candidates, and abortion is a poison pill for Republicans that severely limits the ability of their candidates to win elections, even in red states.
If all of this sounds familiar, it should. The results yesterday look a lot like what happened in 2022, but arguably worse for Republicans because it continues a trend we’ve seen all year.
A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about Democratic overperformance in special elections and highlighted this chart.
Democratic voters are more motivated to go to the polls than Republicans. Part of the challenge for Republicans is that Trump is not on the ballot, and if there’s one recurrent trend since 2016, it is that when he’s not running, Republicans suffer. (Of course, when he is on the ballot, like in 2020, it’s not a great outcome either).
But the second and much bigger part of the GOP’s problem is abortion. Look at these numbers from Ohio, a red state
Women, young people, and independents are firmly pro-choice — and there is just no way that isn’t a political albatross for Republicans (both in the near term and the long term).
Abortion has been directly on the ballot in the form of state referenda eight times since the Dobbs decision. Every time, the pro-choice position has won. When abortion dominated a Wisconsin Supreme Court race last April and the Pennsylvania Supreme Court race yesterday, the results were the same. What we haven’t seen yet is evidence that abortion is helping Democratic candidates win races in red states. Ohioans might have voted to keep abortion legal and accessible, but they still voted for Republicans JD Vance and Mike DeWine last November.
One can point to Kentucky, but other factors contributed to Beshear winning. But if voters start rejecting red-state Republican candidates over abortion, the GOP will be wandering in the political wilderness longer than the Israelites.
What Does This Mean For 2024
This is where things get a bit more complicated.
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