Down In The Hole
Donald Trump is an albatross around the neck of the Republican Party and yet they can't seem to quit him.
If you are a free subscriber and you like what you’re reading, maybe it’s time to upgrade to a paid subscription.
This newsletter is 100% reader-supported, and your subscription helps me continue publishing.
Truth and Consequences is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
When you become a paid subscriber, you receive access to all my posts, the ability to comment on posts and engage in the Truth and Consequences community, and, above all, you get the warm and fuzzy feeling that comes with supporting independent journalism.
Trouble In Trumpland
The latest NYT/Siena College poll is out today, and it’s really bad for Republicans.
In a hypothetical question about this year’s midterm elections, Democrats held an advantage of 10 percentage points among registered voters, with 50 percent saying they would back the party’s candidate if the elections were held today and 39 percent saying they would support the Republican. The Democratic edge among independent voters was 18 points, though 16 percent declined to choose a preferred party.
Among those “almost certain” or “very likely” to vote, Democrats enjoy a 14-point advantage.
Not surprisingly, President Trump is dragging the party down.
Most voters think President Trump made the wrong decision to go to war with Iran … Majorities of voters said that the war was not worth the costs and held deeply pessimistic views about the economy.
Mr. Trump’s approval rating — a key historical predictor of how a president’s party will fare in an election — has sunk to a second-term low in Times/Siena polls of 37 percent amid the deeply unpopular Middle East conflict.
Nearly two-thirds of voters said that going to war had been the wrong decision, including almost three-quarters of politically crucial independents. Less than a quarter of all voters thought the conflict had been worth the costs.
The Times has Trump with a 49% “strong disapproval” rating. Only 23% of voters strongly approve of Trump’s performance in office. And this poll is not an outlier. It’s consistent with the polling average on Trump’s approval rating, which is 22 points underwater.
For example, the CBS/YouGov poll also has Trump at 37%, but there’s one really interesting stat in that poll that should panic Republicans.
Trump’s approval among White non-college voters in February 2025 was 68-32 (+36). Today, it’s 46-54 (-8). That’s a 44-point shift among the GOP’s most loyal base of voters.
The Times poll has slightly better numbers — but not by much. Trump is 52-44 among this cohort. In his three runs for the White House, Trump won about two-thirds of these voters.
Among non-white, non-college grads, Trump is at 20-74. He won around 40 percent of them in 2024.
Among Hispanic voters, Trump’s approval is 20-74, the lowest approval number with Hispanics in the history of the NYT poll.
For those who think that Trump and the GOP can dig their way out of this political hole … I’m not so sure.
Why are higher gas prices so politically toxic? Because more than 90 percent of American households have a car. Everyone feels it when gas prices go up, and right now they are significantly higher than they were just a few months ago. Republicans can do all the redistricting in the world. But they can’t outrun $4.50 for a gallon of gas.
The bottom line here is that Trump is not only deeply unpopular, but he’s also hemorrhaging support among some of his most loyal supporters.
Republicans Can’t Quit Trump
Yet, for all of Trump’s horrible ratings, Republican primary voters still can’t quit him.
Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana on Saturday lost his Republican primary and the chance to seek a third term, after President Trump targeted him for defeat in retaliation for voting to convict him in his impeachment trial five years ago.
In a result that underscored the durability of Mr. Trump’s grip on his party, Representative Julia Letlow, the president’s chosen candidate, finished well ahead, drawing about 45 percent of the vote. John Fleming, the state treasurer and a former Trump administration official, edged out Mr. Cassidy to finish second, with about 28 percent of the vote.
Both Ms. Letlow and Mr. Fleming will advance to a runoff on June 27, according to The Associated Press.
Neither secured a majority of votes. But Mr. Cassidy, who voted to remove Mr. Trump in 2021 for inciting insurrection and has clashed with the Make America Healthy Again movement over vaccines, could not even secure enough support in his state to stay in the race, finishing with around 25 percent of the vote.
Cassidy outspent his opponents, too, and it didn’t help him at all. He turned on Trump, and that was all that mattered to GOP voters in Louisiana.
Indeed, South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham made this exact point on Meet the Press.
“There’s no room in this party to destroy his agenda or to destroy him and his family as a Republican. Democrats do it all the time,” Graham said
“If you align with Democrats to stop his agenda like Massie does, you’re going to lose. If you align with Democrats to drive him out of office, like Cassidy did, you’re going to lose,” he added. "If you try to destroy President Trump, you're gonna lose, because this is the party of Donald Trump"
Graham is referring to Kentucky House Rep. Thomas Massie, who is facing a primary challenge from a Trump-backed candidate on Tuesday, and is in danger of losing.
The thing is, Graham is not wrong, but shouldn’t this scare the hell out of Republicans? They’re tying themselves to a politically toxic president. I get that in a primary it’s important to align with Trump but a lot of Repulicans are going to lose in November because they couldn’t figure out a way to separate themselves from him.
But if you’re a Democrat, keep hammering away on Trump’s handling of the economy, his corruption, the war in Iran, and tie your Republican opponent to all of it. The political trend lines are all pointing in the Democrats’ favor, and there’s every reason to believe that the political environment will only get worse for the GOP between now and November.
What’s Going On
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is traveling to Kentucky to campaign for Massie’s opponent. Traditionally, the SecDef doesn’t wade into partisan politics, so this is yet another political norm that Team Trump is crapping on.
Interesting piece by Jacob Kornbluh on the growing anger in the New York City Jewish community toward Mayor Zohran Mamdani. Hate to say I told you so about this guy.
Any chance Colorado Governor Jared Polis had of running for president probably ended this weekend when he commuted the sentence of Tina Peters, whose efforts to undermine the 2020 election had made her a cause celebre in MAGA world.
Every day, in ways that seem increasingly unimaginable, FBI Director Kash Patel finds a way to embarrass America.
Musical Interlude