Everybody Hates Donald
I took a week off from writing about politics and I've come back to find that most Americans still hate Donald Trump.
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I’m back!
In case it wasn’t already clear, I was out of town last week on my first childless vacation in, well, honestly, I can’t even remember. However, I’ve only partially returned as I’m currently stranded in DC, far from New York, because of the nearly two feet of snow that has paralyzed my hometown. So, apologies for the lack of communication, but everyone needs to recharge their batteries once in a while.
BTW, I was in Morocco … here are a few pictures (more below).
Upon my return, however, it is clear that not much has changed in a week … Donald Trump is still deeply and historically unpopular.
When President Donald Trump gives his State of the Union address Tuesday, he will face a public that increasingly questions his priorities and expresses broad doubts about whether his proposed policies are helping the nation, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS.
Just 32% of Americans now say that Trump has had the right priorities, while 68% say he hasn’t paid enough attention to the country’s most important problems. That’s the president’s most negative reading on that question to date during either of his terms in office. At the same time, Americans say, 61% to 38%, that Trump’s policies will move the country in the wrong direction rather than the right one. And Trump’s job approval rating among all adults remains mired at 36%.
Here are a few tidbits from the CNN poll:
Percentage of Americans who disapprove of Trump: 63%*
Percentage of Americans who strongly disapprove of Trump: 48%*
Percentage of independents who approve of Trump: 26%* (strong disapproval 51%)
Trump’s approval among women: 33-66% (strong disapproval 50%)
Trump’s approval among men: 40-60%
Trump’s approval among 18-34 year-olds: 25-74%
Trump’s approval among Republicans: 82-18%
Trump’s approval among conservatives: 72-28%
Trump’s approval among Latinos: 22%
Trump’s approval among Blacks: 21%
(*worst of Trump’s presidency in CNN polling)
So a couple of these numbers really jumped out to me. For example, a one-point gap between Black and Latino voters on Trump’s approval feels vaguely unprecedented. Usually, that gap is closer to double digits. Indeed, a year ago, it was 13 points.
Trump’s drop in support among Hispanics is nearly matched by his drop in support among younger voters. Interestingly, and a bit counterintuitively, Trump’s biggest age demographic decline is among 35-49 year-olds - 19 points. Overall, however, his rating among 18-29 year-olds is the lowest of any age group.
Trump’s support among Republicans is still strong, but he’s losing nearly one in five GOP voters and 28% of self-identified conservatives. Those are the kind of numbers that contribute to an electoral bloodbath — just enough of your base staying home on Election Day.
That Trump is getting killed among independents is not news, but 51% strongly disapproving is very, very bad. Overall, Trump’s strong disapproval is at 48%, which is not only an insanely high number but also speaks to how bad things are for the president and his party. When just a hair under 50% of Americans strongly disapprove of your presidency, it’s pretty hard, if not impossible, to come back from that. Are any of those voters going to change their mind about Trump, between now and November? It’s a bit difficult to imagine.
If you’re wondering why Trump’s approval matters for the midterm elections, it’s that the approval rating of the incumbent president is usually one of the best indicators of how the president’s party will do in November. The more unpopular the president, the worse their party fares. If Trump’s approval ratings are in the mid-30s (which is historically bad for a presidential first term), that likely means the GOP is facing an electoral bloodbath in November.
And the thing is, it’s not just that Americans disapprove of Trump; the strong disapproval numbers in the CNN poll suggest (and similar results are evident in other polling) that they really, really don’t like him. In short, the signs of a Blue Tsunami are getting even harder to ignore.
Rep. Tony Gonzalez Is In Trouble
There’s been a brewing story in Texas involving Rep. Tony Gonzalez and a former staffer, Regina Ann Santos-Aviles, who allegedly had an affair with the congressman before committing suicide by self-immolation. Text messages that surfaced today indicate that Gonzales sexually harassed the woman and pressured her into having an affair.
Embattled Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) made explicit sexual requests to his late congressional staffer who repeatedly resisted, according to text messages obtained by 24Sight News from a forensic extraction of [Regina Ann] Santos-Aviles’ phone conducted as part of an active legal claim by her widower’s attorney. The messages add to a growing body of evidence of an alleged improper relationship — allegations Gonzales denied as recently as last week.
The messages show the exchange beginning around midnight in May 2024, with Gonzales asking Santos-Aviles to send him a “sexy pic.” She deflected, writing that her “life has been a Telenovela for the past seven days” and that he didn’t “really want a hot picture” of her. When Gonzales responded that he was “just such a visual person,” Santos-Aviles declined again, saying she didn’t like taking pictures of herself.
As the conversation continued, Gonzales asked about sexual preferences and positions. The messages indicate Santos-Aviles repeatedly pushed back. “This is going too far, boss,” she wrote at 12:50 AM.
She also asked whether Gonzales had hired her because of her appearance, which he denied. When Gonzales pressed further with an explicit sexual question, Santos-Aviles pushed back again, writing: “never.”
You can read the whole story and see the text messages between Gonzales and Santos-Aviles, which depict a predatory congressman sexually harassing his aide, even after repeated requests that he stop.
What is most interesting about this story is that at least one Republican member of Congress, Lauren Boebert, is calling on Gonzales to resign. Another, Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, is calling on other Republicans to condemn him.
Gonzales, who is married and the father of six, is facing a primary challenge, and my guess is that his political career is on life support. But if he is forced to step down over his appalling behavior, it would put the current House GOP majority in further jeopardy. Republicans are one or two resignations or deaths away from losing their majority.
However, it’s nice to see some House Republicans actually concerned about the personal behavior of some of their colleagues.
But as for the midterms, these types of stories tend to contribute to a general feeling among the electorate of “throw the bums out.” At the very least, it only adds to the malaise among House Republicans regarding their current political predicament.
More Morocco …
Here are a few more pictures.
Correction:
In my recent post about “Bad Bunny,” I incorrectly referred to the singer on several occasions as “Big Bunny.” My apologies to “Bad Bunny” and the entire Bunny family.
What’s Going On
Remember when Trump was going to drain the proverbial swamp? Not so much.
Did “stances hurt Kamala Harris”? Seth Masket is unconvinced.
Curious as to why tourism to the US is way down, and America is the only major destination “to see a decline in foreign visitors” in 2025? Maybe this story of a 65-year-old woman visiting from the UK who spent six weeks in an ICE detention center will help explain it.
I’m a bit late to this one, but this New York Times Magazine piece from December is the single best explanation I’ve read for how Jeffrey Epstein got so rich … basically he was a very effective grifter.
Blockbuster reporting from the Guardian on how the US and UK knew what Putin was planning to do to Ukraine … and the Zelensky government’s refusal to believe it.
Good Peter Baker piece on Trump’s cult of personality.
Kristi Noem … kind of the worst.
Wild story about a comedian who set up a fake ICE tip line and then got calls from people trying to deport their neighbors, supermarket employees, and the parents of students where they taught.
Musical Interlude
> the approval rating of the incumbent president is usually one of the best indicators of how the president’s party will do in November.
Of course, nothing about the past patterns seems to apply to this unprecedented charlatan. AND, the dems have horrible likability and affinity ratings.
Please fix the typos or explain the flipped and exaggerated ranges
> Trump’s approval among women: 33-66% (strong disapproval 50%)
> Trump’s approval among women: 40-60%. # do you mean "men"?
> Trump’s approval among 18-34-year-olds: 25-74% # 50 point spread? that seems wrong
> Trump’s approval among Republicans: 82-18%. # 64 point negative range?
> Trump’s approval among conservatives: 72-28% # 44 point negative range?