Failure, Thy Name Is The Republican Party

Even by the low standards of the modern GOP, Tuesday was an all-timer. Plus, will Trump stand trail this year?

I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality. If you were sent this email or are a free subscriber and would like to become a paid subscriber, you can sign up here.

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The Horror, The Horror

How bad was Tuesday for the Republican Party? Let’s take a look.

Republicans in Congress suffered a humiliating series of setbacks on Tuesday on critical elements of their agenda, turning the Capitol into a den of dysfunction that has left several major issues, including U.S. military aid to Ukraine and Israel, in limbo amid political feuding.

As Republicans in the Senate torpedoed a border deal they had demanded, the bid by their counterparts in the House to impeach Alejandro N. Mayorkas, the homeland security secretary, collapsed amid Republican defections.

Then came one last bruising blow. Minutes after Republicans fell one vote short of impeaching Mr. Mayorkas — a punishment the party has promised its base ever since winning the majority — the House defeated legislation they put forward to send $17.6 billion in military assistance to Israel. The measure fell to opposition from Democrats who called it a cynical political ploy to undermine efforts to pass a broader foreign military aid bill including Ukraine. They were joined by a clutch of hard-right Republicans, who opposed the measure because the money was not paired with spending cuts.

There’s a pretty simple rule about legislative politics — don’t take a vote unless you know you’ll win. The GOP leadership knew they had three Republican “no” votes on impeaching Alejandro Mayorkas, and they knew that the number two Republican in the House, Steve Scalise, would not be present. So they had literally a one-vote margin for this resolution to pass.

But they likely assumed that Texas Democrat Al Green, who was in the hospital and had missed earlier votes in the day, wouldn’t show up. Well, he did … and the impeachment resolution failed.

House Speaker Mike Johnson could have waited until Scalise returned (he’s undergoing cancer treatment) to hold the vote but went forward with it, and the whole thing blew up in his face. This is the rookiest of rookie mistakes. The House GOP will likely try to hold the vote again. But they better do it by February 13 because that’s when the special election to replace George Santos will be held, and if the Democrat wins … the Mayorkas impeachment won’t ever happen.

But even if they eventually impeach Mayorkas, the stink from yesterday will not go away so quickly. And it’s not as if this will amount to anything. The Senate will not convict Mayorkas, and they might not even hold a trial at all.

The Israel bill is the same issue as the impeachment: don’t hold a vote unless you know you’ll win. Since the House Rules Committee is controlled by staunch conservatives, the House GOP leadership is forced to take nearly every vote under a suspension of the rules, which means a two-thirds majority is needed for passage. But once the White House issued a veto threat and the House Democratic leadership said they opposed the bill, it had virtually no chance of passage. Maybe Johnson thought he could win the PR battle by claiming Democrats are anti-Israel, but really, what’s happened here is that the House GOP looks like the gang that can’t shoot straight.

Punchbowl’s Jake Sherman has an interesting take on all this.

We’ve seen fits and starts, crashes and burns and our fair share of missteps by House GOP leaders through the years.

But what we’re now witnessing with Speaker Mike Johnson’s House defies definition.

Tuesday’s debacle — failing to impeach DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and then choosing to lose a vote on $17 billion in aid to Israel — is truly one of the most embarrassing days in recent House GOP history.

Regardless of what one thinks of the merits of either effort, losing back-to-back votes shows a House Republican legislative process that isn’t optimized for winning. GOP leaders can reverse both defeats, but the damage to their reputation is immense.

Inside Johnson’s leadership circle, there are plenty who doubt his decision-making capability while being forced to begrudgingly execute his questionable strategies. And among rank-and-file House GOP lawmakers, there are a lot of people scratching their heads about where he’s leading them.

I’ve been pretty bearish on the GOP holding on to the House in November. I see no reason to change that view. House Republicans literally have nothing to run on.

One More Thing …

So here’s the crazy thing about what’s happening on Capitol Hill this week. Months ago, House Republicans demanded legislation tightening border security in return for allowing a vote on military funding for Ukraine (which many Republicans oppose).

Usually, on immigration deals, there’s a simple calculus: Republicans get more money for enforcement and border security, and Democrats get some progress on the legalization of undocumented immigrants already in the country. There was none of that on this bill. There was no relief for Dreamers, no amnesty, and no path forward on citizenship. President Biden and Senate Democrats basically gave away the farm on border security because it was the only way to smooth the path for Ukraine funding. To be sure, that wasn’t the only reason. I don’t doubt that Biden and congressional Democrats would have been happy to pass something to neutralize GOP campaign attacks that they are weak on the border. But there’s no way they’d have given up as much as they did if not for the fact that the Ukraine money hung in the balance.

Of course, it was to no avail, as Republicans killed the border security measures they insisted had to be in the bill.

So now, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is planning to bring legislation to the floor providing money for Ukraine and Israel — and that jettisons the border security measure. There is strong support for the former in the Senate (in particular, GOP Leader Mitch McConnell has been advocating for Ukraine aid for months). If such a bill passes, it will put enormous pressure on Johnson to bring the legislation to a vote on the House floor. While there is a vocal contingent of House Republicans who oppose more aid for Ukraine, there are also plenty of Republicans who want to support Kyiv. If it came to a vote, I’d imagine such legislation would easily pass.

So it’s entirely possible that when all is said and done, President Biden will get additional funding for Ukraine and Israel and have made zero concessions on the border to get it done. If that happens … it would be impressive.

Nikki Haley … oof