First, Save Ukraine
They'll be plenty of time to punish Putin, but right now the West needs to focus on ending the war in Ukraine before things truly get out of hand.
I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality of American politics. If you received this email - or you are a free subscriber - and you’d like to subscribe: you can sign up below.
Take advantage now of a 20 percent discount, celebrating the one-year anniversary of Truth and Consequences.
I’m pleased to report that I’ve not only returned from a few days of rest and relaxation, but I also have my computer back.
SOTU … YAWN
Last night, President Joe Biden gave the first State of the Union address of his presidency, and I’ll be honest that I don’t have much to say about it. Biden delivered a fine speech primarily focused on a domestic agenda that Republicans have no intention of enacting into law — and that likely won’t get past Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema either. Indeed, it was quite striking that Biden didn’t even mention the words “Build Back Better” in his nearly hour-long speech.
The president spent the first part of his address excoriating Vladimir Putin about his increasingly ill-fated invasion of Ukraine. Thankfully, this was one issue that received near-unanimous support. It’ll be curious to see if the Ukraine crisis — which Biden has handled about as well as could be expected — will translate into improved poll numbers. So far, that doesn’t seem to be happening.
Putin Losing Might Be Scarier Than Him Winning
On Ukraine, I have a new piece up today for the Daily Beast on how a week ago, the biggest fear in Ukraine was that Russia would win … and now it’s that Russia might lose.
A lightning-fast Russian victory would have created a fait accompli in Ukraine, proved the country’s military mettle, humiliated Kyiv, and paradoxically made it easier for Moscow to impose a victor’s peace and go home. Russia’s point would have been made. But the slow advance of Russian forces, combined with the increasingly harsh Western response and the outpouring of Ukrainian nationalism and popular resistance may convince Russia that it now needs to take an iron first to its Western neighbor.
The worse things get for Russia—and the more Putin is pushed into a corner—the more likely he is to lash out in aggressive and unpredictable ways.
Because of Putin’s irrationality and his inclination to double down on a failed policy (which we’re already seeing with the ramping up of military aggression in Kharkiv and Kyiv) the West must do everything it can to provide the Russian leader with an exit ramp from war. This conflict has the real potential to spiral out of control.
Whether we like it or not, the West will likely be forced to deal with Vladimir Putin for the foreseeable future (those calling for regime change in Moscow are, as the kids might say, getting high on their own supply).
Punishing him may feel satisfying but it won’t end the war and it is the Russian people— not Putin himself—who will pay the most acute price. Anti-Kremlin rhetoric is understandable, even laudable considering the indefensible nature of Russia’s actions. In fact, it’s deeply satisfying to see so many people around the globe respond with revulsion and horror to what is unfolding in Ukraine. But there are dangers in turning Russia into an unredeemable pariah state. As unpalatable as it might seem, the only way out of this conflict is a solution that allows Putin to declare victory—be it a pledge of Ukrainian neutrality and/or a indefinite pause in seeking NATO membership in return for the departure of all Russian troops from Ukrainian soil.
Of course, there are no guarantees that Putin will take an exit from the conflict, but that doesn’t mean the US and its Western allies shouldn’t do everything it can to help him get there.
The Russian Military Ain’t All That
If there’s one other major takeaway from the first week of the Russo-Ukraine war, it’s that Putin’s efforts to rebuild and revitalize the Russian military have dramatically failed.
One can point to the fact that Russia has yet to capture a single major Ukrainian city or that according to the Russian government, 498 soldiers have been killed and nearly 1600 are wounded. We should assume that the Russians are likely lying about the true number of casualties. Still, even if these numbers are correct, that’s a huge number of losses in a week (it’s 200 more deaths than all US losses in the Gulf War), particularly against an undermanned opponent and in a conflict that hasn’t been that incredibly intense.
For me, the tale of Russian military incompetence can best be told by the 40-mile Russian convoy of armored vehicles heading toward Kyiv. Granted the picture above looks terrifying … unless you’re commanding a fleet of combat aircraft and armed drones. In that case, it looks delicious. Some well-place air attacks on the front and rear of this convoy could stop it in its tracks. There’s also plenty of potential for well-placed ambushes along that 40-mile path. This is not exactly top-notch tactical thinking on the part of the Russian military.
Of course, this would not be much of an issue if Russia had taken the time to ensure that it controlled the airspace over Ukraine. Indeed, according to this Reuters report, no one seems able to explain why Russia’s Air Force has not only performed so poorly but isn’t doing much performing at all. Russia should have been able to knock out Ukraine’s vastly inferior air force — and air defenses — within days. That hasn’t happened. It also seems to be the case that even without Ukrainian involvement, the Russian convoy is not making much progress because of broken-down vehicles and gas shortages.
There’s also growing evidence that the Russian force is dealing with a severe morale crisis. There are reports of Russian troops surprised that they are even in Ukraine, refusing to engage the enemy and abandoning their equipment. Social media is full of videos of lost and hungry Russian soldiers, including this heart-breaking video of a captured Russian soldier breaking down during a video call with his mother.
(The compassion shown by this Ukrainian woman as she strokes his head is a beautiful thing to watch).
In an interesting piece for the Washington Post, Jason Lyall argues that morale issues are endemic to the structure of the Russian military.
Like many armies, Russia’s military is marked by prewar inequalities between soldiers that undercut combat motivation. Take, for example, the status and economic hierarchies between contract soldiers, who make up about 70 percent of the military, and conscripts. Contract soldiers serve for three-year contracts, are paid fairly well (about $1,100 a month) and are better-trained. As officers, they also enjoy numerous opportunities to engage in corruption, including siphoning off conscript pay.
Conscripts, in contrast, are poorly trained, receiving four months of basic training, and serve for only a year, during which they are often victimized by their own contract officers, who often violently haze young recruits. For their troubles, they are paid less than $25 a month. Small wonder that there’s a robust black market in seeking deferments to avoid conscription. Poor pay and the chasm between contract soldiers and conscripts combine to undermine unit cohesion.
These issues are not evident on the other side of the battlefield. It increasingly appears that Putin believed his own rhetoric about Ukrainian leaders being drug addicts and Western puppets and simply didn’t take them seriously. The relatively light touch with which Russia has prosecuted the war to date suggests that Russian military leaders either weren’t expecting Ukraine to put up a fight or wanted to avoid significant casualties in order to make it easier to pacify the country after a Russian victory. Both assumptions have proved wrong, as did any assumptions Putin might have had about Russian troops being welcomed as liberators.
Of course, it’s not just the Ukrainian troops who are putting up a tenacious fight. Indeed, the video below of ordinary Ukrainians climbing on a Russian jeep is simply astonishing.
No … No-Fly Zone
Over the past several days, there’s been talk of the US imposing a no-fly zone over Ukraine to prevent Russian aircraft from bombing targets in Ukraine. To say that such an idea is ill-advised is selling it short. A no-fly zone would, in effect, be a declaration of war on Russian because enforcing it would, quite obviously, mean potentially shooting down Russian aircraft. For all the same reasons that it would be a bad idea for the US to put boots on the ground in Ukraine, it would be just as harmful to put US aircraft in the skies over Ukraine … unless the people advocating for such a move want to risk starting a war with a nuclear-armed power. It's almost as if people think that when Biden said he's not sending American troops to fight in Ukraine, it only applied to the ground and not the air.
The US has lent military and diplomatic support to Ukraine. In addition, it has organized global economic sanctions against Russia that could crater the Russian economy. There is no need for the United States to go beyond these laudable steps in helping the Ukrainian people.
To Sum Up
So one week into the conflict, Russian troops are bogged down, suffering from food and fuel shortages, as well as serious morale problems. The international community has united around punishing Russia and turning the country into a pariah state. Over the past week, Western corporations have hastily exited the country; international sports associations are falling over each other to kick Russian athletes out; the ruble has fallen off a cliff, and there is real potential for a Russian economic collapse once international sanctions fully kick in. Meanwhile, NATO has never been more united. Germany is ramping up its military spending, and there is even talk of Finland and Sweden possibly now joining the military alliance. And in Ukraine, Putin’s gambit has spurred a nationalist and patriotic fervor perhaps never before seen in that nation’s short history.
In short …
What’s Going On
Spot-on analysis on the war in Ukraine from Lawrence Freedman.
Read Gal Beckerman on how Zelensky gave the world a Jewish hero.
I haven’t listened to this yet, but Adam Tooze is always an interesting analyst on economic issues.
Smart piece by James Acton on the need to give Putin a path out of war.
Musical Interlude
Last week I was in Nashville, and I went to the Grand Old Opry. There I saw a singer I’d never heard of before named Wendy Moten. She delivered a simply astonishing performance of “Ode to Billy Joe” accompanied by an acoustic guitar. This full band version isn’t quite as good, but it’s still pretty damn solid.
I also visited Sun Studios in Memphis, which is truly hallowed musical ground. So in honor of that visit, here’s Elvis Presley performing “That’s Alright” from his 1968 comeback special.