Flooding The Zone

Every day features a new flexing of muscles from Donald Trump, but is there a price to be paid if the president keeps getting his way?

I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality of American politics. If you were sent this email or are a free subscriber and would like to become a paid subscriber, you can sign up here.

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One of the ways that Donald Trump effectively avoids media and political scrutiny is that he overwhelms the ability of the media and political figures to keep up. Case in point: here are just a handful of the Trump-related stories that came out in the last 72 hours.

• On January 15, Trump had an “icy” phone call with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen in which he allegedly “insisted he wanted the United States to take over Greenland.” Now it seems the Danes are in a full-fledged panic about Trump’s next move.

• Trump announced comprehensive and crippling tariffs and sanctions on Colombia for refusing to provide landing rights for US military aircraft containing undocumented migrants. Then, within a couple of hours — and after a social media war of words between Trump and Colombian president Gustavo Petro — the two sides resolved the matter.

• On Friday night, Trump fired more than a dozen inspectors general from agencies across the US government — a blatantly illegal action.

• The Justice Department abruptly fired more than a dozen members of Jack Smith’s prosecution team because, according to Attorney General James McHenry, they could not be trusted in "faithfully implementing the president’s agenda.”

  • Trump’s team is also reassigning several career DOJ prosecutors in what appears to be an effort to sideline officials “who might halt, delay or revise actions they deem inappropriate by political appointees.”

• Trump removed security protections for several former government officials, including his former Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, his former National Security Advisor, John Bolton, and Dr. Anthony Fauci. All three have previously received death threats.

• The president is expected to issue an executive order banning transgender troops from serving in the military and removing all diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs from the Pentagon.

• He mused about the possibility of temporarily “cleaning out” the Palestinian population in Gaza.

• Trump announced a 90-day stop on all US foreign assistance programs, which is already wreaking global havoc.

So what does all this mean? Let’s tackle the Colombia story first. Make no mistake on this one: Trump effectively strongarmed the Colombian government, although it’s unclear to what end. Colombia’s beef with the US was not in accepting undocumented migrants, but rather, it was the use of US military planes to transport them. Trump won the fight with Colombia, but I’m not sure he needed to go from zero to sixty to score a victory. Still, the new Trump team has sent an unambiguous message to the world — give us what we want or pay the price. That might be an effective short-term strategy, but in the long term, it seems more fraught.

As Dan Drezner points out, “This episode was a gift to China’s interests in the region. China will love to play the role of “black knight” in Latin America, providing an alternative source of demand and finance to the region. The more the United States acts like a regional bully, the more countries will start hedging ties by sidling up to China.” I know that Trump thinks this Colombia move is brilliant diplomacy, but like most narcissists, he doesn’t perceive the unintended consequences of his moves. In the long term, steamrolling Colombia will likely weaken, not strengthen, the US position in Latin America (of course, Trump doesn’t care about anything other than short-term victories).

Moreover, Colombia is a small country that lacks the resources to stand up to the United States. Other countries may take a very different position — like, for example, Denmark. The Danes are in a tough spot on the Greenland situation and are also a small country, but they are a member of the European Union, so they have a clearer set of allies in a fight with Trump. Moreover, the more Trump acts in this bullying manner, the more it activates nationalist fervor and makes it more difficult for Trump to achieve his goals. At some point, countries may take on political and economic pain if it means standing up to Trump and his diktats.

There are limits to American power, and imposing tariffs on every American trading partner is precisely the kind of move that could lead to a political backlash.

(It’s also important to remember that Trump is one of the dumbest human beings on the planet, and he generally does not understand cause and effect).

Case in point:

So, even if Trump’s foreign bullying causes blowback, it’s unlikely that he will recognize how his actions might have caused it. If anything, he is most likely to double down on his bullying, which has the potential to bring a diminishing set of returns.

Retribution

As for Trump’s domestic bullying, it’s hard to say how this will play out. Many of the moves Trump has taken so far are sure to energize his MAGA base, but it’s far from clear that they will appeal to everyone else. Does that matter? In the near term, not really. The next election is two years away, and much of what he is doing now will be long forgotten by then. And let’s be honest, do most Americans care if Trump fires Jack Smith’s team and hopelessly politicizes the Justice Department? Will they care that he kneecapped the federal government’s inspectors general? Probably not. I’d imagine you might see some drop-off in Trump’s support, but it’s unlikely to be significant. Also, keep in mind that Trump is a lame duck, so he might not care so much if he does things that piss Americans off — it’s not like he’s running for re-election.

But Trump getting away with these moves is where I think he gets into trouble. Let me give a recent example. On Friday, the Senate confirmed Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense. Hegseth is an alcoholic and a womanizer and is completely unqualified for the position he now holds. Senate Republicans would have done Trump an enormous favor by rejecting Hegseth’s nomination and forcing the president to put someone at the Pentagon who won’t be a disaster. But they didn’t, and there’s a reasonable chance that Hegseth will screw up so badly that the damage will boomerang against the White House. Trump always wants to get his way (who doesn’t), but there’s a downside.

It’s important to remember that Trump is basically a child. Like many children, he constantly pushes limits to see how far he can go in getting away with bad behavior. The more “success” Trump enjoys now, the more he will push the envelope. So, there is an inherent political danger of Trump getting his way … because he will keep upping the ante. Eventually, he will do something that will cause a real political backlash. While it may not affect him directly, congressional Republicans are facing a mid-term election in 2026. In short, Trump needs someone to protect him from his child-like impulses, but his recent behavior — the bullying, the retribution, etc — will ensure that doesn’t happen.

One Last Thing …

Let us not forget the primary reason Trump was elected. It wasn’t to deport millions of undocumented immigrants, end wokeness in America, or punish Trump’s political enemies; it was because of inflation and the economy. So, this particular tidbit of news should concern Trump and his GOP allies.

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA's) price outlook, egg prices are predicted to increase about 20% in 2025, compared to about 2.2% for overall food prices.

If you’ll notice, none of Trump’s recent moves do anything to lower the price of eggs. If anything, all this talk of tariffs risks further increasing prices. At some point, Trump will need to focus on the economy, or the backlash will come (to be clear, a backlash is likely coming but Trump risks making it even worse).

What’s Going On

• House Republicans want to investigate January 6, but they have a slight problem with one potential witness.

  An aide to House Speaker Mike Johnson advised Republican colleagues against subpoenaing former White House aide Cassidy Hutchinson as part of their investigation into the Jan. 6, 2021, attack in an effort to prevent the release of sexually explicit texts that lawmakers sent her.

  …. A Johnson aide told [Rep} Loudermilk’s staff that multiple colleagues had raised concerns with the speaker’s office about the potential for public disclosure of “sexual texts from members who were trying to engage in sexual favors” with Hutchinson, according to correspondence produced at the time that detailed the conversation.

• Honestly, you can’t make this stuff up.

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