Freedom For Me, Not For Thee

Also, the US continues to stir the pot in Russia.

I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality. If you were sent this email or are a free subscriber and would like to become a paid subscriber, you can sign up here.

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Starting Some S**t

Remember back in early 2022 when US intelligence officials kept leaking stories about Russia’s nefarious intentions, basically previewing the military moves Moscow was about to take in Ukraine? It was a brilliant psyops effort, and … it continues.

So the US leaked a story to the New York Times that General Sergei Surovikin was in on the Wagner coup … and the next day, Surovikin is nowhere to be found.

The New York Times story also includes this pot-stirring detail.

American officials also said there are signs that other Russian generals may also have supported Mr. Prigozhin’s attempt to change the leadership of the Defense Ministry by force. Current and former U.S. officials said Mr. Prigozhin would not have launched his uprising unless he believed that others in positions of power would come to his aid.

“Other Russian generals!” Pass the popcorn. I can’t say with certainty that this is a purposeful US psyop intended to sow distrust within the upper ranks of the Russian government and scare Putin into believing that he’s surrounded by turncoats … but if that is what’s going on, the Biden Administration deserves a standing ovation.

Having Said That …

I wrote earlier this week that I’m not buying the emerging conventional wisdom that this weekend’s events weakened Putin, and I was pleased to see that Julia Ioffe is also skeptical.

In the wake of Prigozhin’s attempted coup, there’s been a lot of full-throated certainty in the Western media—and in U.S. media, especially—that Putin has been mortally wounded and that his regime is weaker than ever. Look as I might, I just don’t see it. 

Prigozhin was the strongest, most obvious rival Putin had. He had his own private army, tens of thousands of men who had criminal pasts and were loyal to him personally, and who, having been through the gauntlet of the war in Ukraine, were skilled at violence and clearly unafraid. Sure, Prigozhin’s march revealed damning details about the defense of the Russian homeland: as Prigozhin advanced, the Russian military mostly melted away. But Prigozhin, for whatever reason, blinked first. And that means Putin won.

Having survived a coup, Putin is stronger, not weaker. And Putin didn’t even get his hands dirty trying to wrangle Prigozhin. He let everyone else—from Lukashenko, to his negotiating team, to his spokesman—come down to Prigozhin’s level and talk, while he removed himself from the capital and the situation, clearly demonstrating that he didn’t think Prigozhin’s march was worth his time or energy.

… Putin, as I’ve written for over a decade, has never been a good strategist. He was a good tactician and an even better procrastinator. His aim, especially since the pro-democracy protests of a decade ago, has been to survive and stay in power, to deal with the crises as they come and to kick the can down the road when he can’t solve a problem immediately, hoping that, in a few years’ time, the solution will somehow present itself. 

Over the last four days, he did just that. He managed to survive and stay in power just a little bit longer. Is he weaker now? Probably. Does it matter in the short term? Probably not. He won and he gets to rule Russia for another day, week, year. That’s all that matters in a contest like this.

I find Ioffe’s last point particularly compelling. Putin shrugged off his most likely competitor without firing a shot, further consolidating his hold on power and dissuading others from challenging him. If we assume that Putin’s top priority is maintaining his grip on power (and for most politicians, that’s usually their number one concern), his recent showdown with Prigozhin, no matter how messy, appears to have helped him more than it hurt.

Much of the media commentary about Putin’s alleged weakening seems to be a bit of wishful thinking or, to put it more directly, a case of analysis masquerading as hope. And maybe it’s true. It’s hard for me to dismiss so many smart analysts; time will tell who is correct. But in the near term, Putin might be weaker in the realm of public perception, but paradoxically, he appears as secure as ever.

Freedom For Some, Miniature American Flags For Others

Andy Marlette/amarlette@pnj.com

On Tuesday, Florida Senator Rick Scott released a bizarre video warning “socialists, communists,” or “a believer in big government” to “think twice” about vacationing or moving to Florida. Scott’s video comes in response to a recent travel advisory issued by the NAACP regarding travel to Florida (this is the group’s fourth such warning in the last two months).

Ordinarily, I would ignore this rather transparent, divisive, and ugly MAGA signaling. In general, it’s practically unimaginable that any politician would make a statement that is basically an extended middle finger to millions of fellow Americans. Even more absurd is that Scott would be so dismissive of “big government” and “socialism” when he represents a state where so many citizens rely on a pair of big government, socialist old-age programs.

Still, it’s worth spending a few minutes on because it inadvertently captures a defining feature of modern conservatism: freedom for me, not for thee.