Gone (Ice) Fishing

Through rain, sleet, ice and snow, as well as food poisoning and vertigo, I'm here to bring you the news!

I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality of American politics. If you were sent this email or are a free subscriber and would like to become a paid subscriber, you can sign up here.

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So, first, an explanation for the lack of posting this week. I took my kids on a vacation to Iceland! And while I planned to do some writing while I was away, on Tuesday, I got food poisoning and then two days later ended up in an Icelandic hospital with, I kid you not, vertigo (apparently a by-product of the food poisoning).

Thankfully, the food poisoning has passed — and the vertigo is not affecting me, so for now, I’m healthy. But I’m keeping my head on a swivel for all potential dangers.

Not Great Bob

Obviously, a lot is happening this week, and I can’t discuss everything, but these polls reflect a rather important and notable development.

fivethirtyeight

It was doubtful that a politician as polarizing and chronically unpopular as Donald Trump would have a long honeymoon, but this is ridiculous. On January 24, Trump was at +8.2. Now, he’s at +1.3. Most striking is his disapproval numbers—41.5 percent on the 24th and 47 percent now. This quick drop-off in support does not usually happen to a new president. Even the chronically unpopular Joe Biden enjoyed positive approval ratings into the Spring and Summer of 2021.

In particular, the recent Washington Post poll should concern the White House.

President Donald Trump has opened his second term with a flurry of actions designed to radically disrupt and shrink the federal bureaucracy, but reviews from Americans are mixed to negative on many of his specific initiatives, and 57 percent say he has exceeded his authority since taking office, according to a Washington Post-Ipsos poll.

Overall, 43 percent of Americans say they support what the president has done during his first month in office, with 48 percent saying they oppose. Those who strongly oppose outnumber those who strongly support by 37 percent to 27 percent.

Trump is 21 points underwater with independents.

Even more shocking are his numbers on the economy — which has long been a source of strength for the president. He’s 8 points underwater.

So it’s not just that Americans think he is going too far with his executive orders and efforts to remake the federal bureaucracy, but on the one issue that helped him get elected — the economy — Americans are increasingly concerned about his stewardship.

Here’s another growing problem for Trump … Elon Musk.

Granted, this is one poll (though the lousy Musk numbers are reflected in other surveys). I don’t expect Trump’s GOP supporters to turn on him, but I expect these numbers to continue declining. At some point, Americans will directly feel the effects of a federal government that is getting kneecapped on a nearly daily basis — and economic measures, like higher tariffs, that will, at some point, bring a greater economic bite. Plus, there’s the public exhaustion that comes from Trump’s consistently childish, abusive, and deranged behavior. (To me, one of the interesting questions is whether his complete sell-out of Ukraine — and some of the pushback it’s getting from Republicans — will further erode his approval numbers. We will see).

So what does this mean politically? Trump has never had high approval ratings, and the White House probably cares more about his Republican support than the rest of the electorate. Nothing that’s happened so far makes me think Trump is about to change his approach to governing. Indeed, I’m genuinely surprised that all the attention going to Elon Musk has yet to upset the president. That he continues to give Musk a long leash has been … unexpected.

What about Congress? We’ve seen some scattered pushback from House Republicans, particularly from Musk’s aggressive cost-cutting measures. Quite a few Republicans criticized Trump’s recent attacks on Ukrainian President Zelensky and support for Russia — and the grumbling over Trump and Musk seeking to take the power of the purse away from Congress is growing. But the Senate just confirmed the manifestly unqualified Kash Patel as FBI Director, so no one should be holding their breath expecting Republicans to join the resistance.

The political calculus for congressional Republicans hasn’t changed. The vast majority are deathly afraid right now of a MAGA primary challenge. It’s tough to see the upside for most of them to do anything that might upset the White House, particularly when Musk is running around warning of primary challenges against anyone who defies Trump’s agenda. Congressional Republicans will pick their spots, but, by and large, I expect them to slavishly support Trump no matter what stupid, terrible thing he does.

What About The Democrats?

Here’s where things get interesting. According to a new Quinnipiac poll, Trump’s approval is at 45-49; Congressional Republicans are at 40-52, and congressional Democrats are at 21-68!

These numbers are a bit artificial because a) congressional Democrats have no real power right now, and b) rank-and-file Democrats want them to do more and see “a.” Still, 21 percent approval is beyond terrible. It suggests that the party’s elected representatives have lost the confidence of even the party’s most partisan members. Again, there’s not much Democrats can do to stop Trump’s agenda other than symbolic acts of defiance. But it doesn’t help that the House and Senate leadership is generally older, not terribly well-known, and, frankly, not great on television.

I wrote about this dynamic recently for MSNBC, and one data point, in particular, really stood out to me.

A CBS/YouGov poll in January found that a majority of Democrats (54%-46%) preferred that congressional Democrats “try to find common ground with Trump” rather than “oppose Trump as much as possible.”

That was then.

The same question was asked this week, and now 65% of Democrats want their party leaders to oppose Trump rather than work with him.

That’s a 38-point shift from cooperation to conflict in just a month.

Perhaps this shift was inevitable, but Trump’s actions have unquestionably weakened the incentives for Democrats to cooperate with Republicans.

It wasn’t long ago that congressional Democrats said they wanted to find common ground with Trump. In January, Senate Democrats helped break a filibuster over a harsh immigration measure, giving Trump an early political victory on his signature issue.

But that was before Trump let Musk run amok through the federal bureaucracy. As I noted in the MSNBC column, this could significantly impact negotiations over keeping the government open after the current continuing resolution funding government operations expires on March 14. That budget showdown is the only piece of leverage that Democrats currently have to rein in Trump’s excesses. Considering that Trump is refusing to spend money already appropriated by Congress, Democrats have little reason to cooperate with Trump (how can they know he will spend the money they are being asked to appropriate?).

In the House, Republicans can pass a spending measure with only GOP votes, and even with a bare two-seat majority, I suspect they can get it done if Trump throws his support behind legislation (though it’s hardly guaranteed).

If that happens, it would put the ball in the court of Senate Democrats, who can filibuster a continuing resolution. Would they do that? A month ago, I would have said no. But with Trump’s poll numbers faltering and the Democrats in even worse shape, they have plenty of incentive to shut the government down. To be sure, filibustering a bill to shut down the government is the kind of hardball political move that Senate Democrats are hardly known for. But if you think the party is unpopular now, imagine where things will stand if Democrats give in to Trump on government funding.

It’s interesting to look back at what happened in 2009 after Democrats took dominant control of Washington. The Tea Party was born, and while these groups were highly critical of President Obama, they set their short-term goal of getting rid of moderate Republicans who were not aggressively standing up to Obama. The Tea Party took the GOP in a much more radical direction and arguably led to the rise of Trump.

It’s difficult to imagine that happening to Democrats simply because the party is not nearly as radical and extreme as Republicans were then (and are now). Democratic voters generally seem to prefer more moderate voices. But considering what Trump and Musk are doing right now — and the seeming threat to the country’s democratic institutions — one can easily imagine Democrats finding themselves under growing political pressure from their base to stand up to Trump.

It’s entirely possible that there won’t be a shutdown, and Democrats will find some common ground with Republicans. The GOP has every incentive to make some compromises on the continuing resolution, particularly as they are in the midst of a messy fight over next year's budget resolution. Perhaps Democrats will conclude that there’s zero chance Republicans can pass a budget in the House with a two-vote majority, and they will need their support. So they’ll delay a showdown with Trump until then. (But remember a budget measure — if it’s passed through the reconciliation process — cannot be filibustered).

That would be a significant miscalculation for Democrats. They need to draw a line in the sand with Trump, and they need to do it soon. Rank-and-file Democrats are scared and pissed off, and they increasingly want the party’s leaders to fight Trump. The risk for Democrats is likely not coming from the GOP — it could be coming from their own ranks.

What’s Going On

• I wrote a long piece for the New Republic looking back at Francis Fukuyama’s 35-year-old “End of History?” thesis. My conclusion: it holds up pretty well.

• Donald Trump is spouting pro-Putin talking points, and Republicans don’t care.

• Earlier this week, Trump’s Department of Transportation tried to end New York’s experiment with congestion pricing. New York’s response is compelling (I’d be stunned if the courts don’t block Trump’s effort).

• For my fellow Detroit sports fans, Andy Isaac is a real one. Wishing him strength at this difficult time.

• There’s a major measles outbreak in Texas … but there's no reason for fear; it’s not as if the Senate recently elevated a lifelong anti-vaxxer to the most powerful public health position in the country.

• What Hamas did to the Bibas family is pure evil … and incredibly heart-breaking.

• Please read Susie Linfield’s evisceration of Peter Beinart’s new book. It’s fantastic.

Musical Interlude

I couldn't help myself