Good Riddance

Yahya Sinwar is dead, but the war in Gaza may continue. Also, is the 2024 race tightening? Why is Trump cancelling interviews? Baseball is the best and a [fire emoji] musical interlude.

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Sinwar Is Dead … The War in Gaza Continues

Until he was killed on Thursday by Israeli troops, Hamas’s leader Yahya Sinwar was one of the most evil men to walk the earth. 

Sinwar was the mastermind of the October 7 massacre of more than 1,200 people in Israel – and the kidnapping of hundreds of Israelis, who a year later remain in captivity in Gaza. 

But while Sinwar’s death is a great day for Israel, it’s arguably an even better day for the Palestinian people. Israel’s military response to the October 7 attacks, coupled with Sinwar’s consistent refusal to strike a cease-fire deal that would have led to a hostage release, has directly contributed to the deaths of tens of thousands of innocent Palestinians.  Celebrations of his demise will likely occur across the region – from Tel Aviv to Khan Yunis.

In Bob Woodward’s new book War, he quotes Brett McGurk, the Biden administration’s top Middle East envoy, as saying that on several occasions, Hamas’s political leadership, which lives outside Gaza, accepted the outlines of a cease-fire deal, only to have Sinwar reject them.

Indeed, the image above of Sinwar, wounded, with his right arm mangled, facing death — but still fighting (he threw a stick at the Israeli drone that took this video) is telling. Sinwar kept “fighting” even after the fight was lost and resistance was futile. It is a telling metaphor for the incalculable and pointless suffering he’s inflicted on the Palestinian people over the last year.

Sinwar began this war with the deluded belief that Hamas’s attack would lead to Israel’s demise. When it was evident that wouldn’t happen, he continued the fight long after it was clear victory was impossible. He was a monster. Good riddance.

The question now is, what comes next? Will there finally be an end to fighting and a release of the Israeli hostages? On that front, things are far murkier.

Even with Sinwar, thankfully out of the picture, who will take his place as Hamas’s leader is not clear. Over the past year, Israel has systematically eliminated most of the organization’s top leadership. In July, the group’s political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, was assassinated in a guesthouse in Tehran (in an operation likely masterminded by Israel), elevating Sinwar, who had previously been only the head of Hamas’s military wing. Other top Hamas commanders, Marwin Issa and Mohammed Deif, have been killed in Israeli airstrikes. 

Sinwar’s likeliest successor is his brother Mohammed, but one can certainly imagine a power struggle among the organization’s highest ranks. The vacuum in leadership might, in the near term make a cease-fire deal more, not less, difficult.

While Sinwar has been a year-long impediment to a cease-fire, so has the man sitting in the Prime Minister’s office in Jerusalem – Binyamin Netanyahu.

The death of Sinwar should represent an opportunity for Netanyahu to end the war. He could declare an amnesty for Hamas fighters in return for the release of all remaining hostages. Sinwar’s death could lead to the gradual withdrawal of Israeli troops and the turning over of governing responsibilities in Gaza to the Palestinian Authority (PA).

However, as one analyst I spoke to said, Sinwar’s demise “does present an opportunity to change things for the better. Unfortunately, Netanyahu's interests are not necessarily in line with ending the war.”

Ending the war without the complete defeat of Hamas (your guess is as good as mine as to what that looks like) would likely alienate Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition partners. Empowering the PA would be a complete non-starter for them as well. There is even talk in Israel now about bringing settlers into Gaza and resettling the territory. Rather than look for exit ramps, those around Netanyahu are looking for ways to deepen Israel’s reach in Gaza. Moreover, it seems Bibi wants to free the hostages via military means, not diplomacy.

In an ideal world, Netanyahu would have the guts to stand up to right-wing fascists in his coalition and do what’s best for Israel’s long-term security and the fate of hostages. But clearly, we don’t live in that realm.

That means that while Sinwar’s death should represent the beginning of the end of the war in Gaza, it’s just as likely that nothing changes.

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