Good Times, Bad Times
There's some good political news for Democrats, but the current debate in DC over the party's budget package feels like a giant missed opportunity.
I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality of American politics. If you received this email - or you are a free subscriber - and you’d like to subscribe: you can sign up here.
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I’ll be Zoom Casting tomorrow at 12:30. Here’s the link, though I will send around a reminder tomorrow morning. We had a great conversation last week, and hoping as many of you as possible can join me tomorrow!
Hope Is The Thing With Feathers
Here’s a chart that should bring you warmth.
COVID-19 cases peaked at 170,195 on September 15. Today, they are just over 86,000. Hospitalizations and deaths are on the decline. According to the CDC, 77 percent of eligible Americans have received at least one dose of a COVID vaccine — 67% are fully vaccinated. Even in Florida, 80 percent of eligible adults have received one dose of the vaccine. Earlier this week, the White House unveiled a plan for vaccinating children, which is expected to be green-lit by the FDA next month. For all the coverage given prominent anti-vaxxers, the country is getting closer to a post-COVID reality. All this has happened in an extraordinarily short period… or as one guy on Twitter put it.
This doesn't mean COVID will, like the Spanish flu, disappear. The virus will probably be with us for years to come, and tragically people will continue to get sick and die. But we are nearing the point that COVID becomes a manageable virus rather than one capable of upending our lives. If that happens, it should do wonders for the nation’s psyche and be a political boon for Biden.
In Washington, Democrats in Congress are nearing agreement on a budget package of between $1.5 to $2 trillion over ten years. The bill will likely contain many progressive agenda items — from paid family leave and child care subsidies to money for climate change mitigation efforts and an expanded child care tax credit. Even at a much-reduced number from President Biden’s initial proposal of $3.5 trillion, the package will be the most significant expansion of the social safety net in decades.
Having Said That …
Somehow this all feels like a hollow victory. According to a report in the Washington Post, this morning, one of the centerpiece elements of the bill — America’s first-ever paid family and medical leave program is likely to be whittled down from 12 weeks to 4, would not be authorized permanently, and won’t go into effect until 2024. Keep in mind that the United States is the only highly developed country without a paid family leave program. So while four weeks of paid leave is better than zero, the legislation won’t be nearly as transformative as it should be.
The same goes for the child tax credit, initially included in the American Rescue Plan that passed earlier this year. The White House sought a permanent extension of the credit but will likely settle for just a one-year extension. Since it’s politically difficult for Congress to cancel a tax credit for individual Americans, the tax credit will probably be extended next year, but of course, there’s no guarantee.
Democrats have also largely given up on a provision allowing Medicare to negotiate lower drug prices — a proposal among the most popular elements of Biden’s Build Back Better plan.
While the bill devotes significant resources to addressing climate change, the administration’s Clean Energy Program, which would provide financial support to utilities that switch renewable energy sources, and penalize those that did not, will not be included. West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin steadfastly opposes it. This program is considered the most effective policy tool for reducing the country’s dependence on fossil fuels.
Due to opposition from Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema, the bill’s tax increases on individual taxpayers and corporations are likely to also end up on the cutting room floor. Democrats are now scrambling to find the revenue to pay for the package.
Finally, on Wednesday afternoon, Senate Republicans blocked debate on a package of reforms to extend voting rights for the third time this year. The legislation, which Manchin had negotiated, would create federal standards for early and mail-in voting, make Election Day a national holiday, and mandate a watered-down voter identification provision insisted upon by Manchin. The West Virginia Senator has tried to corral ten Republican senators to support the measure, and, shockingly, he failed.
What Could Have Been
In a moment of frustration yesterday, I noted on Twitter that “Democrats won't raise taxes on rich people, won't seriously fight climate change, won't expand voting access, are nickel-and-diming much-needed social programs .. and all because of 2 senators.”
Of course, this lets Republicans off the hook for their mindless obstructionism to virtually all Democratic policy proposals. Congress would not be in this situation if Republicans had not made the political decision — years earlier — to block everything Democrats want to do and make no policy proposals of their own. This obstructionism also relates to COVID too. It’s great that things are looking better on that front, but how many Americans have died and needlessly suffered because Republicans made the political decision to block mitigation efforts and promote anti-vaxxerism.
Still, GOP obstructionism could be overcome if not for two Democratic senators — Sinema and Manchin. If the two of them agreed to suspend the filibuster for legislation related to voting rights, Democrats would easily pass the bill that Republicans blocked yesterday. That Manchin, who went to such lengths to negotiate the bill, may willingly allow Republicans to prevent it from becoming law is difficult to understand — and gives me a modicum of hope that he will eventually come around on the filibuster. But I struggle to understand why any of this is necessary.
Manchin and Sinema’s incoherent attachment to "fiscal restraint” means that Democrats will be passing a series of half-measures, underfunded, and not commensurate to the challenges they are intended to solve. From a policy standpoint, this makes little sense. From a political perspective, it’s borderline malpractice. If Americans don’t feel the impact of this legislation — and soon — the party will pay a significant political price. Letting Medicare negotiate lower drug prices polls exceptionally well and is the kind of issue that can win over older voters. Yet, it won’t be in the final vote and instead will be one more Democratic campaign promise not fulfilled.
Indeed, on both voting rights and the budget package, Sinema and Manchin are putting the Democrat’s congressional majority in danger. Expanded voting rights is one of the best tools the party has to prevail in the 2022 midterms and undo Republican efforts to restrict voting on the state level. Moreover, Democrats need to give their supporters as many reasons as possible to support the party’s candidates next Fall. Half measures are not the best way to accomplish that goal.
Don’t get me wrong: there’s a lot in this bill that will help Americans. As a down payment on expanding the social safety net, it’s a good start. But considering the narrowness of Democratic majorities in the House and Senate, the need for even greater boldness is obvious. By 2022, Republicans could control one or both houses of Congress. Even if Joe Biden wins reelection in 2024, it’s more likely than not that Democrats will not have majorities on Capitol Hill. That means that his legislative agenda will be dead in the water. The time is now for Democrats — and because of Manchin and Sinema, the party is missing the best chance it could have for years to enact its legislative agenda and solidify its political standing. It’s more likely than not that we will look back on the current debate in Washington and view it as a terrible missed opportunity.
Harshing the Mellow
But what is perhaps even worse about all this is that it highlights how utterly dysfunctional and enfeebled our government has become. I’ll be honest; I don’t remember Joe Manchin or Kyrsten Sinema’s name on the ballot for president last Fall. And yet, because of the Dems narrow majority in the Senate — and the selfish political machinations of both senators — combined with intractable GOP obstructionism they are able to wield extraordinary, unhealthy power over America’s future. It’s not an exaggeration to say that a single senator’s opposition to a single climate change provision portends a far worse future for the country and the planet. Quite simply, this is no way to run a country.
For all the supposed brilliance of the Founding Fathers, they bequeathed to us a political system oriented not only toward blocking progress but also one that is incapable of navigating the political waters of stark polarization, as we are experiencing today. FFS, the country can’t even undo a Senate rule that prevents majority rule and gives disproportionate power to a minority of senators representing less than half the country. I know it’s pie-in-the-sky dreaming even to say this, but until we reform and dismantle our antiquated constitutional system, America will continue stumbling from crisis to crisis, accepting half loaf solutions to serious national problems, and falling further behind other advanced countries that don’t face such severe structural impediments to progress. I’m sorry to be so bleak but, then again, there’s a reason I call this newsletter “Truth and Consequences.”
What’s Going On
The extent to which Kyrsten Sinema has torpedoed her promising political career is truly remarkable. If she had played the loyal Democratic soldier, it’s not hard to imagine her as a potential presidential candidate. Now she’ll be lucky to win reelection.
Josh Marshall has some thoughts on what Sinema is doing.
Give a medal to Montgomery County, Maryland — it has a 99 percent vaccination rate!
A wonderful piece by David Graham on a newly discovered bootleg of John Coltrane performing “A Love Supreme” in October 1965.
The LA Times’ Jackie Calmes goes after political journalists for playing the “both sides” game.
Russia is kinda, sorta starting to take climate change seriously.
Musical Interlude
Here’s Led Zeppelin performing “Good Times, Bad Times.” Bonzo’s hi-hat gets me every time!
In 2016, the Monkees put out an album of new material called “Good Times,” which is fantastic. Power pop at its finest. My favorite song on the record is this beautiful tune, “Me & Magdelena.”
Gotta have some Chic!
Here’s the one released cut from the aforementioned Coltrane record.
"I don’t remember Joe Manchin or Kyrsten Sinema’s name on the ballot for president last Fall." Yup. Just this morning, I wrote friends in Scotland and commented, "I don’t remember electing Manchin president." Our government is indeed "dysfunctional and enfeebled."