I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality of American politics. If someone sent you this email - or you are a free subscriber - and you’d like to subscribe: you can sign up here.
Over the past several months, I’ve become friends with a fellow parent in my neighborhood. Her son is in the same second-grade class as my daughter, and we often meet up and talk at the playground or when we run into each other on the street. Last week, we were waiting for our kids outside the local movie theater where they do remote learning, and she briefly took off her mask. I did a double-take. I realized that in all the time I’ve known her, it was the first time I’d ever seen her face. Since we became friends, she has always worn a mask.
On one level, this makes perfect sense. Mask wearing, even outdoors, has become routine in New York. We put them on when we leave our apartments and don’t take them off until we get home - or if we stop somewhere for food. On Sunday, I went to see my mother, who lives in Pennslyvania, and mask-wearing was ubiquitous there as well. For a year now, we have taken for granted that we will partially hide most of our faces during public interactions.
But on another level, it’s illogical. I’ve never spoken to my friend anywhere, but outside and a year into the pandemic, we know that outdoor transmission of the coronavirus is simply not a thing. Now with vaccination rates steadily increasing and near-universal access to vaccines, it’s time to stop wearing masks outside and begin returning our lives to normal.
Outdoors is Different than Indoors
The lack of outdoor transmission of COVID-19 is not exactly news. Multiple studies have found that the combination of air currents that disperse and dilute airborne particles as well as sunlight and humidity makes outdoor transmission an exceedingly rare occurrence. For example, a comprehensive study from last Fall showed that less than 10 percent of COVID-19 infections came in outdoor settings. A study done in Japan found that the coronavirus was close to 19 times more likely to be spread indoors. Another study from last Spring in China looked at 318 cases where the virus was spread to three or more people. All happened indoors. Unless I am yelling in someone’s face or spitting at them, the risk of me being infected with the coronavirus while outside is exceedingly slim.
We’ve known this for some time, if only anecdotally. For example, during the nationwide protests over the murder of George Floyd last June, some commentators, myself included, warned about the potential for spreading the coronavirus. That didn’t happen. Even super-spreader events like the Sturgis motorcycle rally or the White House ceremony introducing new Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett appear to have combined outdoor and indoor activity, which is what led so many people to get sick.
Nonetheless, while the risks of outdoor transmission are low, most people still wear masks outside. Many have done so for the best of reasons - simple courtesy. In the midst of a global pandemic, which has killed more than 566,000 Americans, the neighborly thing to do was to wear your mask at all times, or at the very least pull it up when you pass someone on the sidewalk. Even if the risk was low, how could it hurt, especially before the development and distribution of a vaccine?
Wearing masks on the street also sent a powerful and important signal that you took the pandemic seriously and modeled best practices. When walking around the city this weekend with my kids, I’d guesstimate that 80-90% of New Yorkers are still wearing masks outside - even when they are by themselves or with members of their family.
But now, with more than half the country having received at least one shot of the COVID-19 vaccine, there is much less reason for continuing to do this. In New York, for example, more than half of all state residents who are 18 or older have been vaccinated. For three weeks, anyone over the age of 30 has been able to get a vaccine appointment in New York. For two weeks, anyone over the age of 16 has been eligible. There’s now a backlog of appointments. As of today, any American over 16 - in any state in the country - can get a vaccine.
Many of those who are not getting vaccinated are choosing not to get the shot - whether it’s because of vaccine hesitancy or they are simply too busy. How much longer should their decision not to get a life-saving vaccine, for whatever reason, impact the rest of us? Pandemic courtesy, which so many of us have selflessly shown, is a two-way street.
Critics will ask, what’s the harm in wearing a mask out of an abundance of caution? Why not just wait until the risk of COVID-19 transmission is at zero? These are fair questions, and if not for the fact that I simply hate wearing a mask, I probably wouldn’t make an issue out of this. But the reason why most of us have abided by public health rules, worn masks outside, appropriately socially distanced, and stayed away from large crowds (aside from keeping ourselves and our families healthy) is to get to this point: when we could stop wearing masks and return our lives to normal.
Not wearing masks everywhere I go and seeing the faces of people with whom I have become friends is my pathway to normalcy.
Balancing Risk
The other issue is one of risk. As I wrote the other day, “there are few activities in which there are zero risks. When we get in a car … it’s a risk. When we bike on the street … it’s a risk. When we swim in the ocean, go skiing, take a strenuous hike, there are potential dangers. Most people factor these into their decision-making. We’re going to need to do the same with COVID-19.”
As horrible as it may be, it is quite likely that, for the foreseeable future, people are going to continue to lose their lives from the coronavirus. There have been 5,800 cases of people who have tested positive for COVID-19 after being vaccinated, and 74 people have died (that is out of 66 million Americans who have been vaccinated). Few vaccines bat 1,000, and there will be those with co-morbidities and underlying health issues who will be in danger. (Of course, some will continue to refuse to get vaccinated). Again, this is a part of normal life in American and is a risk that all of us need to balance.
I am more than willing to take the risk that I will not be one of the 5,800 people who have gotten sick after being vaccinated, and I am also willing to take the risk that there’s an infinitesimal chance of me infecting someone else with COVID-19. If you think that makes me sound selfish - fine. But ultimately, this is no different from the choices we make every day in American society and ones we will continue to make after the public health rules to prevent the spread of COVID-19 have been lifted. We cannot and should not live our lives in a bubble by taking every imaginable precaution to keep ourselves safe. That’s not the kind of life that any of us would want.
To be sure, I will continue to abide by mask mandates or store policies regarding indoor mask use because the threat of indoor transmission still exists. I will continue to respect those I’m talking to me outside who ask me to wear a mask. If I go into someone’s home … the same thing. If people want to keep wearing masks even after mask-wearing mandates have been lifted, go on with your bad self. I’m not in the position to tell anyone what else to do. But there is simply no good reason to wear a mask outside - and I’m done doing it.
What’s Going On?
Harry Siegel is right about Andrew Yang: beware the lure of the political outsider with no governing experience.
The gunman who killed eight people at a FedEx facility in Indianapolis bought his guns legally … even after police seized a shotgun from him because of concerns raised by his mother about his mental state.
Political sectarianism is getting worse and represents a significant threat to American democracy.
The Republican Party remains pro-insurrectionist.
Great piece by Sopan Deb on why the worst NBA player is still better than you.
NASA flew a helicopter on Mars … and yet we still can’t put metal in the microwave.
Musical Interlude
I have no reason for posting this video other than I absolutely love the Vistas, I love this song, and it should have been the summer soundtrack for 2020. The world needs more power pop!
More Vistas!
You ever find yourself driving in the car and a song comes on that you love, but haven’t heard in years - and you take a few minutes to rock out. That happened this weekend when this song by the Icelandic folk-rock band Of Monsters And Men came on. Their 2011 record “My Head Is An Animal” is excellent!
I'm Done Wearing A Mask Outside
Good afternoon Mr. Cohen,
while I share your sentiments regarding mask wearing, please think of the many others who continue to wear masks in accordance with current guidelines whom you will make feel uncomfortable. In addition, this subject has been uber-politicized with acompanying disinformation. Why lend credence to those positions? As you said, we've gotten this far, what's a few more months?