Is Abortion A Political Winner For Democrats?

It depends

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The Politics of Abortion Are … Complicated

Photo by Gayatri Malhotra on Unsplash

On Tuesday, Democratic candidate Janet Protasiewicz won a highly contested election for a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court. Her victory will give liberals a 4-3 advantage on the state’s highest court. With that majority, the court can — and likely will — overturn a state ban on abortion and throw out the state’s heavily gerrymandered legislative maps, which have allowed Wisconsin Republicans to maintain a stranglehold on the state government for years. Indeed, Protasiewicz openly ran on her opposition to the abortion ban and said, if elected, she would vote to scrap it. Not surprisingly, many abortion supporters are using the Wisconsin race to argue that abortion rights are perhaps the most potent political weapon for Democrats — and one that should be utilized by the party in 2024.

Ish.

It is undoubtedly true that support for abortion rights is a powerful tool for Democrats, but there are limits. When abortion is on the ballot, and a vote means abortion is legal or illegal, Democrats will do well. We saw this in the Kansas abortion referendum last Summer and Kentucky last Fall. We saw it in Michigan during midterm elections when an abortion referendum was on the ballot and to a lesser extent in Pennsylvania when the Democratic gubernatorial candidate, Josh Shapiro, ran on an explicitly pro-choice message against a virulently anti-abortion Republican.

But there are plenty of places in America where Democrats ran on a pro-choice message … and fell flat on their faces. In Florida, Democrats ran an estimated 28,000 ads attacking Senator Marco Rubio and Governor Ron DeSantis for their anti-abortion position. Yet, even though a majority of state residents support abortion rights, Rubio won by 16 points, and Ron DeSantis won by 19. Now DeSantis is poised to sign into law a 6-week abortion ban (which most Floridians oppose). In Texas and Ohio, the Democrats’ abortion message did not sway red-leaning voters. In Georgia, voters rejected Herschel Walker and his abortion hypocrisy but gave Republican Governor Brian Kemp a 7-point victory over Stacey Abrams. In Arizona, Republican Kari Lake out-performed GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters, even though her election would have had a far more significant impact on abortion rights in the state. In Nevada, Catherine Cortez Mastro successfully ran on a strong pro-choice message against her opponent Paul Laxalt. Still, in the governor’s race, incumbent Democrat Steve Sisolak went down to defeat.

Indeed, one could argue that in many of these races, even where Democrats won, it wasn’t necessarily because of abortion but because their Republican opponents were too extreme. So from this perspective, abortion in of itself is not necessarily a decisive issue, but when you combine it with other radical positions — on democracy, guns, etc. — it’s political kryptonite for Republicans.

So while pro-choice activists want to argue that abortion is the key to Democratic success in 2024, recent electoral results suggest that context matters. There’s little evidence that the GOP’s anti-abortion stance is costing them the votes of enough Republican-leaning voters to make Democrats competitive in red-state America. And even in purple America, unless abortion is explicitly on the ballot, Democrats cannot count on the issue to carry the day for them. Heck, even in Wisconsin, Democrats might have won on Tuesday by running on abortion, but the same voters reelected Ron Johnson to the Senate, even though he is a strident abortion rights foe.

This is not to suggest that Democrats shouldn’t run on abortion in 2024. On the contrary, it’s precisely the issue that can help them motivate pro-choice voters who are already inclined to vote Democratic. And it’s easy to imagine that it could play a crucial role in states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. But elsewhere, it does not appear that support for abortion rights can puncture the partisan affiliation that keeps Republicans voting for the GOP, even when they disagree with the party’s stance on the issue. And while it may motivate Democrats in red states, there may not be enough of them to make a difference on Election Day. In fact, a stridently pro-choice position could actually hurt Democrats in certain red states, where abortion bans are relatively popular. So Democrats can and should run on abortion. But there are limits to how effective a message it will be.

Having Said That …

While there may be limits to the effectiveness of a pro-choice message for Democrats, we should not ignore the fact that the Dobbs decision is a disaster for Republicans on the national stage.

I’ve long made the argument that when it comes to Donald Trump, the Republicans have a prisoner’s dilemma. On the one hand, he is so unpopular that it makes it increasingly difficult for the GOP to win national elections and prevail in blue or purple states. We saw this over the last few election cycles in the Midwest, Pennsylvania, and Arizona. In even bluer states, Trump’s presence in national politics has helped Democrats consolidate their gains and shut the GOP out. But in red states, Trump has significantly boosted Republican candidates. We saw this most explicitly in 2018 when Democrats picked up 40 seats in the House but saw several Senate Democratic incumbents in red states lose (Missouri, Indiana, and North Dakota). Trump giveth, but also taketh.

Republicans are facing a similar dilemma on abortion. In an ideal political world (for them), the GOP would rally behind a 15-week abortion ban, which is probably acceptable enough to even pro-choice voters, that it would keep the party competitive in blue and purple states. But that simply isn’t going to happen — because in red-state America, anti-abortion activists will continue pushing the party toward the political extremes. Just this week, Idaho passed a law that makes it a felony to transport a minor across state lines to get an abortion without parental consent. Florida is on the cusp of passing a six-week abortion ban. Indiana has banned nearly all abortions (though it currently remains legal pending legal appeals).

So even if Republicans take a more measured abortion stance in blue and purple states (and most won’t because to win party primaries, they need to embrace more extreme anti-abortion positions), the specter of abortion bans in red states will haunt them. Democrats can point to draconian laws in red-state America and tell voters, “This is what will happen if you elect Republicans.” On a national level, Democrats can hammer any GOP presidential candidate with the message that a vote for a Republican potentially means a national abortion ban. If, by some miracle, DeSantis wins the GOP presidential nomination, Democrats will undoubtedly attack him in swing states over his support for a six-week ban in Florida.

This means that abortion will continue to be a winning issue for Republicans in red-state America — or, at the very least, not a losing one. But when it comes to winning the presidency or making inroads in blue or blue-leaning states, it’s a giant albatross that will make it exceptionally difficult to win back the White House.

Meth Labs of Democracy

Meanwhile, in the citadel of freedom called red state America.