Two quick housekeeping notes. As I mentioned last week, for the month of March (and to mark my 50th birthday) I’m offering a special discount to subscribe to Truth and Consequences - $50 a year for a subscription or $5 a month. Ten percent of the proceeds will go to the American Foundation for Suicide Prevention. Also, today is my mom’s 80th birthday! So if you could wish her a happy birthday in the comments. I know it would make her day.
On Saturday afternoon the Senate voted to pass Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion COVID relief bill, giving Democrats had the best day they've had in quite a while. On Sunday, West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin hinted that things might soon get even sweeter.
Manchin appeared on four separate Sunday morning news shows (one short of the elusive "full Ginsburg") to tout the benefits of the American Rescue Plan. Having the Democrat's most conservative senator take to the nation's airwaves to talk up one of the most progressive pieces of legislation to ever pass the Senate is a big deal. But then Manchin went one step further: he suggested that he would be willing to consider changes to the Senate filibuster.
"The filibuster should be painful, it really should be painful, and we've made it more comfortable over the years," Manchin said on "Fox News Sunday." "Maybe it has to be more painful."
Then he went on NBC's "Meet the Press" and was even more specific. "If you want to make it a little bit more painful, make him stand there and talk. I'm willing to look at any way we can, but I'm not willing to take away the involvement of the minority.
Saying it once could be an accident. Saying it twice was not. Manchin is quite clearly sending a clear signal to the anti-filibuster activists. "I'm on the market. Woo me."
For several weeks now, reformists have been beating the drums on doing away with the filibuster altogether. That was never a realistic possibility and not just because of Manchin. There is plenty of skepticism in the Democratic caucus about such a drastic move. Reform, or altering the filibuster's rules to make it more difficult to be obstructionist, has always been the best path forward. That could include everything from restoring the "talking filibuster," which would force Republicans to hold the Senate floor and debate legislation to lowering the threshold on maintaining a filibuster. This reform was last enacted in the 1970s and decreased the votes needed to break a filibuster from 67 to 60. The number of votes needed to break a filibuster could be reduced over time: first 60, then 57, and 54 until it reaches a bare majority of 50. Also, specific types of legislation could be exempted from the filibuster, as is the case now with budget reconciliation packages. There are many ways to keep the filibuster in place and preserve the Senate's affection for long-winded debate without making it a tool to block legislation that a majority of senators support. Whatever reforms are adopted, one thing is clear: Manchin is opening the door to them being implemented.
He also said something else over the weekend, offering even more hints as to where he is headed. In an interview with Axios, Manchin said he wants to see a bipartisan infrastructure bill that gets 60 votes in the Senate. But then he added that he wants the legislation to be paid for with tax increases - and specifically, he mentioned raising the corporate tax rate and repealing "a lot of" the Trump tax cuts.
Joe Manchin is not a dumb man. He knows that no Republican (no less ten) will support a massive tax increase to pay for infrastructure spending. So you can't have a bipartisan infrastructure bill that also raises taxes. You could, however, have one that raises taxes and gets unanimous support from Democrats.
The conventional wisdom is that Manchin is engaging in performative centrism to maintain his independent/moderate brand in West Virginia. Certainly that seemed to be the case when he demanded largely cosmetic changes to the American Rescue Plan, which were less a pound of flesh and more an ounce.
But what if he's actually trying to help Democrats erode the filibuster but not have it look like a naked power play by the party’s liberal wing? If Joe Manchin, who every liberal is hurling epithets at these days, and who said just last week that he would "never" do away with the filibuster, comes around on the issue, what clearer signal could there be that it's happening because Republicans have given him no choice? By having been so vocal about his determination to preserve the filibuster, Manchin, more than any other member of the Senate, could give Democrats cover to do away with it and place the blame squarely on obstructionist Republicans.
Along the same lines, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki repeatedly said on Monday that Biden would "prefer" not to get rid of or modify the filibuster. Biden believes, said Psaki, “that with the current structure that he can work with Democrats and Republicans to get work and business done. He’s also happy to hear from Sen. Manchin and others who have ideas about how to get the business done for the American people." This is a bit like me saying I'm trying to lose some weight so I'd prefer not to eat the chocolate cake you just put in front of me.
Like Manchin, the White House is making clear that Biden wants to keep the filibuster but may begrudgingly have to support its demise if Republicans give him no choice.
I've been back and forth for a while on whether Manchin would finally bite the bullet on the filibuster. But Sunday's performance pretty much ended the mystery for me. It now feels more likely than not that Manchin will find some reform measure to support. It's now less a question of if, but rather when.
Today’s Musical Interlude
Last week’s spate of Bruce Springsteen videos produced some great reader responses but none better than this suggestion from my old friend and subscriber, Michael Hanna. This is arguably the worst/best music video ever made. There is so much to discuss here, from the number of joints Hall and Oates smoked before filming began and the worst mimed guitar solo in the history of music, to the extraordinary and inexplicable footwear decisions made by both men. Enjoy! If you have any suggestions on other videos for me to post, drop me a line or leave them in the comments below.
(M) ...did you see the article in THE WEEK April 9th vol 21 issue 1021 SUBSTACK. A profitable refuge for "lightning -rod" writers. page 22. It needs am Op-Ed reply.....
Happy belated birthday to both of you!