I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality of American politics. If you received this email - or you are a free subscriber - and you’d like to subscribe: you can sign up below.
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Don’t Let The Door Hit You On The Way Out
Earlier this week, Dr. Anthony Fauci said something that perhaps should have gotten more media attention — the United States is “out of the full-blown explosive pandemic phase.”
He was quick to add that this doesn’t mean the pandemic is over. Still, as he put it to the Washington Post, “we’re in a transitional phase, from a deceleration of the numbers into hopefully a more controlled phase and endemicity.”
What does all this mean? A look at the numbers seems to bear out what Fauci is saying. This is the latest data from the New York Times:
There are two very important things happening here. First, cases are significantly increasing (and have been for some time), though they remain relatively low. As the chart below indicates, cases are at their lowest level since last summer.
But this increase in cases is not leading to a significant rise in hospitalizations or deaths. Now, these tend to be lagging factors, but I check these numbers on a near-daily basis, and the trend lines have been consistent — the uptick in cases is not leading to a significant increase in hospitalizations and deaths, which Fauci also noted in this interview.
That’s excellent news. It means people are getting COVID, but they’re not necessarily getting seriously ill. That’s likely a result of two-thirds of the country being vaccinated and millions more having been infected and now having antibodies that protect them. Indeed, last December, I spoke with Dr. William Schaffner and he alluded to this possibility — that with so many Americans becoming infected by the relatively mild Omnicrom variant, it might lead the country out of the pandemic by increasing the number of Americans with immunity.
Of course, people are still getting sick. Some will still be hospitalized and, tragically, die, but the risk to most Americans — particularly the vaxxed and boosted is on the decline. That represents a potential transition from a pandemic to an endemic or, as Fauci calls it, the “control” phase of the pandemic. In other words, the virus is still circulating, but it’s not causing new waves of hospitalizations and deaths. And Fauci was quick to add that we’re “not quite yet” in this phase.
The reality of COVID-19 is that it will be with us, likely forever. Like the flu and other infectious diseases, it will simply become a reality of life, but it will no longer control our lives. People and businesses will still take COVID-related precautions. There will likely be variants that emerge and cause a spike in cases. But unless those variants are vaccine-resistant (which is always a possibility), it’s unlikely that we will be returning to 2020 and 2021. Too many Americans are vaccinated; too many have been exposed, and we have better treatment options for COVID cases than in the past.
Having Said That …
Yet, people are still dying and will continue to die — and a big part of the reason is that about a third of all Americans are not vaccinated. In addition, tens of millions more haven’t gotten a booster shot.
A big part of the reason is, of course, politics.
If you look, for example, at the vaccination data compiled by the New York Times, the first 21 states (that includes the District of Columbia) in the percentage of the population that are vaccinated all voted for Joe Biden in November 2020. Of the 18 states on the bottom of that list, 17 voted for Donald Trump (the outlier is Georgia, which narrowly went for Biden).
The impact of this discrepancy is profound. According to a recent report by the Kaiser Family Foundation, “approximately 234,000 deaths since June 2021” could have been prevented. “These vaccine-preventable deaths represent 60% of all adult COVID-19 deaths since June 2021, and a quarter (24%) of the nearly 1 million COVID-19 deaths since the pandemic began.”
This is a simply astonishing number, and while not every one of these 234,000 deaths is a result of Republican intransigence on vaccines … it’s a big part of the equation.
Beyond this needless and unimaginable loss of life, the fact that so many Americans are not vaccinated allows COVID to spread and mutate into new variants. The dangers to the immunocompromised, who are vaccinated and boosted, are likely overemphasized, but those dangers exist, in large measure, because so many Americans are not vaccinated. And as the Kaiser report makes clear many more people are dying who are vaccinated because they haven’t got a booster shot. Their immunity has dissipated the further they are from their last vaccination shot. So if you haven’t gotten your booster … please do it immediately. If you’re over 50, you can also get a 4th shot.
Still, if you are vaccinated and boosted and have no underlying health conditions, the pandemic is entering a very different phase (and has been for a while). There are not zero risks, but they are very small. If you’re immunocompromised, the risks are more significant, but the vaccines provide considerable protection, according to recent CDC data. You’re not out of the woods, but with up-to-date boosters and taking precautions, you can minimize the danger. While there are persistent complaints that the country is not doing enough to protect the immunocompromised, the expectations are perhaps unrealistic. Most Americans aren’t going to continue to take the same health precautions against COVID if they are vaxxed, and it’s unlikely that public health mandates will remain in place to protect a small segment of the population. Is that unfair to the immunocompromised? Yes, but after two years of COVID, that’s likely where we are.
Of course, if you’re not vaccinated, you’re at needless risk of dying, and you’re delaying the process by which America can say goodbye to the pandemic. As I’ve written before, we’ve reached the “choose-your-own-adventure” part of COVID. I have good friends and family members who are vaxxed and boosted and still take major precautions (wearing masks in public, avoiding large crowds etc). I don’t take many precautions, except when it’s required. I understand the potential risks, but I’m willing to take them. I don’t begrudge people who still wear masks. Personally, I’d rather not do it. But that’s largely where we are with COVID-19. For the vast majority of Americans, the choice of how they protect themselves from getting sick is their own.
What’s Going On?
I’m not sure why US intelligence officials are bragging about how their intel sharing with Ukrainians directly led to the deaths of Russian troops, but it seems like a bad idea.
This is an excellent report on the current situation in Ukraine and the extent to which Russia is preparing for a protracted conflict.
Christopher Blattman makes the case for striking a deal with Vladimir Putin.
I’m looking forward to reading this report done by Jacobin and YouGov on how progressives can win over white working-class voters.
I had a few more thoughts on the danger represented by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
Musical Interlude