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Is Joe Biden Polling Better?
There is some ever-so-slight evidence that the presidential race is tightening. In the Hill/Decision Desk polling aggregator, Biden is down 1.2 in a head-to-head matchup with Trump. On February 25, he was down 2.7. According to the Real Clear Politics aggregator, Biden is now a point behind Trump, which is a point better than where he was three weeks ago.
However, I doubt we can chalk this up to anything other than noise. Poll averages will move around based on different pollsters and varied polling effects, but we’re not seeing much evidence that the slight movement in the polls is sustainable or proof of a serious change in public opinion.
Indeed, Biden’s approval ratings remain essentially unchanged — they are as lousy as ever.
Before you start freaking out, remember my frequent caution that we are very far from November, and we shouldn’t pay too much attention to polling seven months before Election Day. Still, you’d imagine at some point that Biden would begin to see some improvement — particularly after his State of the Union Speech and with the tens of millions he’s spending on campaign ads. That it’s still not happening should concern the Biden reelection team. If it continues, it will only increase the likelihood that Biden runs a scorched earth campaign against Trump in the hopes that it will convince enough voters to cast a ballot against the former president as opposed to for Biden.
Friend of the newsletter, Elliot Morris, has an interesting theory on what is happening.
Running different versions of our poll aggregator, Biden's supposed momentum in general elec polls is very much a function of whether a pollster includes Robert F Kennedy Jr in their response options. Polls that don't suggest a 1p bounce since SOTU; those with RFK = no bounce.
In other words, when faced with no RFK Jr. on the ballot, frustrated Democrats cast their vote with Biden, but with him as a choice, some are siding with the protest candidate. The implication is that when we get closer to Election Day, support for RFK Jr. will fade, and Democrats will come home to Biden. For what it’s worth, I assume that will largely happen between now and Election Day.
If it doesn’t, Biden will be in trouble.
Check out this smart piece by Nathaniel Rakich on why candidate favorability may not be as crucial in 2024 as in previous elections.
Is There A Racial Realignment Upon Us?
But not everything is terrible for Biden.
Ron Brownstein has an interesting article on a political dynamic that is not getting nearly enough attention — Biden’s continued strength with white voters.
Surveys now consistently show Trump leading President Joe Biden nationally and in almost all of the key swing states. But those same surveys generally show Biden matching or even exceeding his winning 2020 share of the vote among White voters. Trump’s lead in polls is often based solely on him significantly improving on his 2020 showing among voters of color – and in fact, running better among Blacks and Hispanics than any Republican presidential candidate in decades.
These results have provoked a fierce debate about whether those numbers are accurate. But the more important question may be whether Trump can sustain whatever level of support he now has among non-White voters as more of them learn about the aggressive agenda he has adopted on race-related issues.
Indeed, Trump’s support among minority voters is rather astounding.
Both national and battleground state public polls consistently show Trump, at this point, drawing more support from Black and Hispanic voters than any Republican nominee since at least 1960. When The New York Times/Siena College, NBC News, Wall Street Journal and CBS News/YouGov all released national polls a few days apart earlier this month, each of them found Trump winning from 20% to 28% of Black voters and 45% to 48% of Hispanic voters. That’s far more than the 12% of Black, and 32% of Hispanic, voters he won in 2020.
In his two runs for the White House, Trump has improved the GOP margin among Black and Hispanic voters, but these most recent poll numbers are ridiculous. Trump may double his support among Black voters and see a near 50 percent improvement among Hispanic voters … but I would not count on it. If this happened, it would be the most significant racial realignment since the 1960s and the signing of the Civil Rights Act — and on behalf of a candidate who is pretty clearly a racist. I suppose anything is possible, but this all feels a bit far-fetched — a by-product of small sample sizes among minority voters that are skewing poll results and dismay with Biden that will likely fade as voters are reminded of Trump’s more toxic positions.
This quote from pollster Cornell Belcher (in the Brownstein piece) captures my skepticism.
“If the story doesn’t make any sense you have to question it,” Belcher said. “Someone who has a well-documented history of discrimination and racism and corruption, along with being fundamentally mispositioned on almost the entirety of African American issues … that person is going to do better than George W. Bush, than Ronald Reagan, than John McCain, than any Republican over the last four decades?” Belcher said. “It’s absurd on its face.”
“If the story doesn’t make any sense, you have to question it” is a pretty good reminder whenever we see a poll result that doesn’t add up. American politics are not static, but we usually don’t see huge movements in a short period. It’s one thing for Trump to do slightly better with Black and Hispanic voters; it’s quite another for him to have a historic improvement among them. I wouldn’t count on that happening.
And considering Biden’s continued strength with white voters, if Trump’s numbers slip among Black and Hispanic voters … well, he’ll be in serious trouble come November.
What’s Going On
My latest for MSNBC is on the misplaced assumption that sustained 20 years of US involvement in Afghanistan.
Here’s to rabbit holes! I was reading an Atlantic article and came across a link to this fantastic 1930 article by a British WWI deserter. It’s definitely worth your time.
Interesting piece by John Ganz on the fascism vs. anti-fascism debate.
The Ha’aretz piece on the Israeli killing of seven members of Jose Andres’ World Central Kitchen in Gaza is incredibly troubling. This airstrike is appalling and indefensible and will, I expect, have a profound impact on IDF operations in Gaza.
Musical Interlude
I am less interested in horse race stuff, the TL;DR version is:
-Biden is losing right now
-Biden has time to make up so panicking doesn't help
-Thankfully a lot of Biden's weakness is with people who also dislike Trump which means he can make up this ground as the year progresses
We shall see if RFK, Jr becomes a more formidable than usual independent bid. I have no idea why he's running. He claims he's not acting as a spoiler, and has said Biden is "more dangerous" than Trump...but come on.
At this point in time it's a waste of time to pay attention to polls much less worry about them! Too many people won't admit who they'd really vote for: especially 45's people because they're really scared of being on the receiving end of his or his thugs anger! That's why voting is done in secret!!!