Is This Time Different?
A few months ago the signs of a Republican wave election were everywhere ... now they are nowhere to be found.
This past week I took a break from the hot take salt mines to spend some quality vacation time with my kids. We spent a few days in Zion National Park in Utah and Las Vegas (as true city kids, they enjoyed the latter far more). Now I’m in Los Angeles for the week. While I was away, a few things happened in the world of politics. So here’s my rundown, which is maybe the longest post I’ve ever written for Truth and Consequences! This one is free for all subscribers, but don’t let that stop you from taking this opportunity to become a paid subscriber. In fact, I’m offering a special for the week — 20% off the usual subscriber fee for 12 months. That’s $40 a year or $4 a month. A paid subscription gets you access to all posts, allows you to comment on all posts, and, most importantly, keeps the lights on here at Truth and Consequences HQ.
The Red Wave Ain’t Happening
On Tuesday, we received more evidence that there will likely be no red wave this November.
In a special election in upstate New York, Democratic candidate Pat Ryan defeated his Republican opponent Marc Molinaro by just over 2 points. In 2020, Joe Biden won the district by 1.5 (in 2016, Hillary Clinton lost it by 1.7), so Ryan’s victory is consistent with that outcome. That’s the problem for Republicans.
If the stars were aligning for a Republican wave, this is precisely the kind of seat that the GOP would pick up. Instead, for now, it remains in Democratic hands (the district will disappear come November due to redistricting). If Republicans can’t win a Biden +1.5 seat that has, according to the fivethirtyeight.com, a +6 GOP partisan lean, there’s little reason to believe that they will win other marginal seats in November.
But the Ryan/Molinaro race has other bad news for Republicans. Ryan was badly outspent, in part, because the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee largely ignored the contest (since the winner would only hold the seat for a few months). As a GOP executive of New York’s Dutchess County, which is Democratic-leaning, Molinaro was a strong candidate with local roots. He’s not an easily caricatured MAGA Republican. In addition, every poll leading up to election day showed him ahead. Yet, he still lost.
This is not the first special election in which Democrats over-performed. In Nebraska, earlier this month, the Democratic candidate narrowly lost a special election for Congress in a seat that Trump won by 15 points in 2020. In Minnesota, a special election in a +15 GOP partisan leaning district, the Democratic candidate lost by 4 points. On the same day as Ryan’s victory, the GOP won a special election in New York’s 23rd congressional district by 7 points. It also has a +15 GOP partisan lean.
In four of the last five special elections, Republicans have underperformed Donald Trump’s 2020 numbers by 4 points. The fifth one is the special election in Alaska to fill the seat left empty by the death of Rep. Don Young. We still don’t have the final results of that race, but there is a reasonable chance that the Democratic candidate may emerge victorious out of a crowded field — which would be a shocking outcome in ruby-red Alaska. And as the NYT’s data guru Nate Cohn points out, special elections are generally one of the more telling harbingers of what will happen in November. Certainly, that was the case in 2018’s spate of special elections.
So how did Ryan win? By focusing on abortion. Ryan ran millions of dollars in ads pledging to protect women’s reproductive rights and attacked Molinaro for his anti-abortion views. This is consistent with the election earlier this month in Kansas, in which a constitutional amendment that could have potentially outlawed abortion in the state lost by nearly 20 points. And of the aforementioned four special elections (plus Alaska): all took place after the Supreme Court's decision overturning Roe. Indeed, check out this chart from 538’s Nathaniel Rakich and the impact of the abortion decision on voting patterns.
Put all this together, and it’s a nightmare for Republicans because the obvious inference to draw is that by focusing his campaign message on abortion, Ryan was able to motivate Democratic voters and outperform the polls. If I were a House Democrat in a vulnerable seat, I would be talking about abortion pretty much all the time between now and November.
What I Meant Was
As the political salience of the Supreme Court’s abortion decision continues to rise, Republicans are starting to run away from their previously uncompromising views on abortion. Check out this ad from Arizona Republican Senate candidate Blake Masters:
This is stunningly dishonest and not simply because it mischaracterizes Kelly’s position (late-term abortions are exceptionally rare, and when they happen, it’s almost always to protect the life and health of the mother or because the fetus is no longer viable). Notice what Masters doesn’t mention: that he is opposed not just to late-term and partial-birth abortions but all abortions, without exception. He has previously supported a federal personhood law, which would “recognize that unborn babies are human beings that may not be killed.” At least that’s what it said on Masters's website … until Friday. Since then, it’s been scrubbed along with his previously strongly-held position of “100% pro-life.”
But Masters is on the record — and has stated publicly — that he considers abortion “demonic,” and he’s called for a federal abortion ban. I would imagine that Senator Mark Kelly will remind Arizona voters of this frequently over the next nine weeks. Masters is not the only candidate trying to snow voters about his actual views on abortion. Doug Mastriano, who during the GOP primary for governor in Pennsylvania frequently reminded voters that he opposed abortion in nearly all cases, now refuses to talk about it. Other Republicans are taking the Masters route and simply removing anti-abortion language from their campaign websites.
I doubt this works. If anything, efforts to deny allegedly strongly held beliefs could boomerang against these GOP candidates by showing them to be duplicitous. In short, Republicans have made their bed on abortion, and now they will have to sleep in it.
Pick Your Voters
This interesting argument points to one of the underappreciated factors playing in the Democrat’s favor this year. It used to be that Republicans did well in midterms because these are lower turnout elections, and the traditional GOP electorate — white college-educated, often suburban voters — tends to, in general, vote at a higher percentage. According to Ron Brownstein, "voters with a college degree consistently make up about three to four percentage points more of the electorate in a midterm than in a presidential election."
Well, now those once traditional GOP voters are increasingly voting Democratic; and the GOP’s new solid base of voters, the white working class, is historically less likely to vote in midterms. Indeed, one of the reasons why Democrats do better in so-called presidential years is that occasional voters — like minority voters, who traditionally vote Democratic — turn out in higher numbers.
It’s too soon to tell whether this will help Democrats in November. In our current highly polarized environment, we might see higher turnout across the board. But considering the vital role white suburban voters played in helping Democrats take back the House in 2018 and win the presidency in 2020, one more reason to expect a strong Democratic vote come November.
On The Other Hand …
There’s still one great unknown about 2022: what if Donald Trump announces that he’s running for president before the midterm elections?
I assume that this would be a political gift for Democrats. In the last two cycles, Democrats have made elections a referendum on Trump, and he’s been a highly effective tool for mobilizing Democratic voters. Trump remains a deeply unpopular figure. However, Trump is still quite beloved by Republicans, and if 2022 becomes a referendum on Trump, theoretically, that could mobilize his supporters.
In 2018 and 2020, even as Trump was a drag for Republicans in suburban districts and blue or purple states, he did wonders for Republicans in traditionally red areas. In 2018, even as Republicans lost races across the country, GOP Senate challengers in red states like North Dakota, Indiana, and Missouri easily knocked off Democratic incumbents. In 2020, Republicans in Iowa, North Carolina, and elsewhere defied polls that showed their candidates losing. So in a place like Florida, where Trump has a strong base of support, does an election that is a referendum on Trump help Sen. Marco Rubio and Gov. Ron DeSantis? A handful of House races in red or purple districts as tossups or lean Republican. If Trump’s voters are energized, it could help GOP candidates.
To be clear, I don’t want to overemphasize the argument here. Yes, a motivated pro-Trump base could help Republicans in certain races. But from a macro perspective, it’s bad for the GOP. And the news on Trump will likely only get worse between now and Election Day. There will be more trickles of information about the FBI investigation of Trump’s possession of classified material. The January 6 Committee will be holding public hearings again in September. The investigation in Fulton County, Georgia, into Trump’s efforts to coerce Republican officials into overturning the results of the 2020 election is heating up. In short, if Trump is a voting motivator for Democrats and even independents … that motivation will likely only increase over the next two months.
What About Biden?
So something is going on with Joe Biden’s approval ratings. They are improving. Yes, he’s still underwater, and yes, 42.3% is not great, but from the White House’s perspective, the trend lines are good.
Why does this matter? Because historically, presidential approval ratings are usually the most helpful indicator of how the incumbent party fares in midterm elections. But it’s worth asking if that’s still the case. We know, for example, that presidential approval ratings have become another victim of our polarized political moment. Republicans are much less likely to offer a favorable view of a Democratic president and vice versa. It’s why during the Trump presidency, even during a terrific economy, his approval numbers never topped 50 percent. The same phenomenon was evident during the Obama years when as the economy improved, his approval numbers didn’t also rise (generally, in the past, voter attitudes toward the economy worked in tandem with their attitudes toward the president). So for Biden, he’s never going to get many Republicans to say he’s doing a good job.
The latest Gallup poll makes the point:
Even as Biden’s numbers among Democrats and independents went up, they actually fell slightly with Republicans.
But the interesting data point is Biden’s standing among independents — it increased nine points from 31% to 40%. A recent Morning Consult poll shows a similar improvement - 6 points in August.
Still, none of this might matter because it’s easy to imagine a scenario in which voters give Biden low marks but still prefer Democratic candidates to the GOP alternative. If Democrats and independents are concerned about losing reproductive rights, fearful of the GOP’s anti-democratic bent, and motivated to vote because of Trump, then how they feel about Biden may not matter. Fear of the alternative is likely stronger than disgust with the status quo.
But, if Biden’s numbers are improving among independents, well, that’s an even worse sign for Republicans — because it suggests that frustration with the current president is dissipating and Republicans need the electorate to be upset with the incumbent party if they have any hope of a big win in November.
It all leads me to a conclusion that I’m wary of making, but honesty requires me to write. Over the past several months, virtually everything I’ve written on the midterms has come with the caveat that things usually improve for the out-party (the GOP) as we get closer to the election. So, in other words, Democrats are doing well now, but it may not last. That’s what the historical trends tell us. Yet, it’s hard for me to see any basis for that assumption.
Republicans are underperforming, across the board, in special elections.
The GOP is hobbled by a host of lousy and extreme candidates, many of whom are in key swing states (Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Georgia).
The Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade has changed the nation’s political dynamics and served as a motivating tool for Democratic voters.
Democrats are doing best among voters who, traditionally, have been most likely to turn out in midterm elections.
As I wrote earlier this month, new voter registration numbers are heavily Democratic and female.
Trump is deeply unpopular, and the more he is in the news, the more it motivates Democratic votes, as was the case in 2018 and 2020.
Where’s the data point that suggests Republicans are likely to do well in November? Yes, there are Biden’s approval numbers, but it’s an open question whether they matter much anymore — and even if they do, they are getting better! The FiveThirtyEight forecast has Democrats with a nearly 2-1 chance of holding the Senate. The House forecast gives the GOP a 78-22 advantage, which seems right to me, considering the Republican edge gained from redistricting. But if the current trend lines continue, the Democrats will have a reasonable chance come November. Of course, it’s always dangerous to ignore history and say, “this time is different,” but honestly, this time feels different, and there’s no point in denying it any longer.
Presidential Pokey
I’m not a lawyer, so — after reading this piece in the Daily Beast by Bradley Moss — I feel much better about my initial thoughts after reading the affidavit used by the FBI to justify its search warrant on Donald Trump released on Friday afternoon.
I have finally seen enough. Donald Trump will be indicted by a federal grand jury. You heard me right: I believe Trump will actually be indicted for a criminal offense. Even with all its redactions, the probable cause affidavit published today by the magistrate judge in Florida makes clear to me three essential points:
(1) Trump was in unauthorized possession of national defense information, namely properly marked classified documents.
(2) He was put on notice by the U.S. Government that he was not permitted to retain those documents at Mar-a-Lago.
(3) He continued to maintain possession of the documents (and allegedly undertook efforts to conceal them in different places throughout the property) up until the FBI finally executed a search warrant earlier this month.
This doesn’t even seem like a controversial take. The law is pretty straightforward. Trump had documents — which included classified material related to “clandestine human sources” involved in intelligence gathering — that he wasn’t allowed to have. Of the initial 15 boxes of materials that Trump returned to the archives in January, 184 documents had classification markings, including 25 labeled “top secret.” According to the New York Times, “others were marked in a way suggesting they were related to foreign intercepts collected under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act.” In addition, “Some of the documents, the affidavit said, were from the Sensitive Compartmented Information programs, a designation that is one of the most tightly restricted categories of secrecy. Still, others had been labeled ‘originator controlled,’ meaning they could not be held without the approval of the intelligence community.”
Simply possessing these documents could merit criminal indictment for Trump. However, that he refused to turn over those still in his possession and actively impeded governmental efforts to retrieve them — to the point where the FBI was forced to seek a search warrant — pretty much settles the score. This doesn’t mean Trump will face justice. Attorney General Merrick Garland could decide not to seek a criminal indictment, but if he does, it seems pretty clear that the facts are on his side.
What’s Going On
If Democratic Pennsylvania gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro doesn’t beat his Republican opponent, Doug Mastriano, by 20 points, he should be embarrassed.
In Florida, Governor Ron DeSantis launched a voter fraud crackdown that involved arresting people (several of whom were former felons) told by state officials they were allowed to vote — and, in some cases, even sent voter registration cards.
Remember earlier this year when the Supreme Court ruled that the EPA couldn’t regulate greenhouse gases? A provision included in the massive budget reconciliation act may have made that ruling null and void.
Keep an eye on this story: sensitive election data was shared with Trump’s coterie of election deniers, which could lead to criminal indictments.
Musical Interlude
It is true that the nation is polarized, which tends to mess up polling predictions. People are also realigning, which does not happen all that often, so that messes up political predictions based on history . . . maybe, of course. In other words, all these predictions are fun, but for ground-level political workers, there is no substitute for getting voters registered (which has become harder in a lot of states) and getting them to the polls (which has also become harder in a lot of states.) Unlike the days of outright segregation, voter suppression can be beat. It is blatantly unfair and it takes work. The next few election cycles will be fascinating. Unless they aren't.