Isn't That Special?
Democrats keep over-performing in special elections ... and there's good reason to think that it will continue when voters go to the polls next year.
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A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about how Democrats are consistently over-performing in special elections.
This week, it happened again.
Democrats just scored a big win in an election on Tuesday: Democrat Hal Rafter defeated Republican James Guzofski 56 percent to 44 percent in a special election to fill a Republican-held seat in the New Hampshire state House.
It’s … the latest example of Democrats outperforming in a special election, a trend that could be a harbinger of a very good year for Democrats in 2024. This New Hampshire district is 6 percentage points more Republican-leaning than the nation as a whole, according to a weighted average of the 2020 and 2016 presidential results in the district.* Yet Rafter won by 12 points — an 18-point Democratic overperformance above their partisan baseline.
Here’s why this win is an even bigger deal: by flipping this seat, Democrats are on the verge of upending GOP control of the New Hampshire state House (there’s another special election in November in a solidly blue seat, and Democrats are expected to win, which would leave the body in a tie).
Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania …
Democrats have once again secured a one-vote majority in the Pennsylvania House, prevailing in an Allegheny County special election the party was widely favored to win.
The Associated Press called the race for Democrat Lindsay Powell, a former mayoral staffer and member of the Urban Redevelopment Authority of Pittsburgh, shortly after the polls closed at 8 p.m. Powell faced Republican Erin Connolly Autenreith, a realtor who chairs a local GOP committee.
Powell’s win will end a two-month tie in the 203-member lower chamber that has existed since progressive state Rep. Sara Innamorato (D., Allegheny) resigned to focus on her run for Allegheny County executive.
Powell won 65 percent of the vote, which is 5 points better than Biden’s performance in 2020.
This is not an isolated incident.
This chart doesn’t take into account the Wisconsin state Supreme Court race in April, when the Democratic candidate won by 11 points (Biden won the state in 2020 by less than a point), or the Ohio referendum in August on abortion rights that voters overwhelmingly rejected.
For all the talk about Joe Biden’s age or his lousy approval ratings, the data on special elections gives us a much better feel for the electorate's mood — and how they will likely vote in future elections. There are few better predictors of future elections than the trend in special elections, and this year’s results suggest that Democrats are simply more energized and enthusiastic than Republicans.
But I suspect two other things are going on here. One is what we saw in 2022: the results in special elections dramatically shifted after the Supreme Court scrapped Roe v. Wade.
There may be another factor, too. In the New Hampshire race, the Republican candidate was a full-on election denier (he also accused abortion rights supporters of wanting “blood sacrifices to their god, Molech”). In Pennsylvania, the GOP candidate attended the Stop The Steal rally in Washington on January 6 (though she did not march to the Capitol).
So, I suspect we’re seeing more evidence of a voter backlash to Republican extremism — both on abortion rights and on democracy.
This has significant implications for the presidential election. If Democratic voters are motivated by anger over abortion and fear of GOP anti-democratic sentiments, the factors limiting Biden’s approval ratings (particularly his age) might be irrelevant. If voters are motivated by hatred of Trump and anti-GOP attitudes, then Biden is, as much as anything else, a vessel. A vote for him is not for another Biden term … it’s a vote against returning Trump to the White House.
This is why I don’t take very seriously public opinion polling that shows 2/3rds of Democrats want a different presidential candidate in 2024. Democrats may be dissatisfied with Biden and think he’s too old, but when faced with a choice between Biden and Trump next Fall, they will still support Biden. For them, the alternative is so much worse. In short, negative partisanship — or voting against rather than for a political party — is the driving factor in American politics right now.
Also, take a moment to watch Chris Hayes talk about the special election trend.
What’s Going On
Robert Menendez … kind of a crook.
Ibram Kendi … kind of a grifter.
John Fetterman .. kind of a cool, empathetic dude.
In Trump world, the rats are fleeing the sinking ship.
Stick a fork in the meatball!
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who stood out as Trump’s chief rival in the last UNH survey on the New Hampshire race in July, has dropped 13 points since then to 10% support. He’s now running about even against three rising candidates: tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy (13%), former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (12%) and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (11%). South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott is at 6% support in the poll and former Vice President Mike Pence holds 2%. No other candidate tops 1%.
Trump is only polling at 39 percent, which suggests that if non-Trump Republicans rallied around a single candidate, he could lose in the Granite State. But, like in 2016, that is unlikely to happen, and Trump will reap the rewards of facing a divided GOP field.
Musical Interlude
Last weekend, I had the privilege to see Willie Nelson in concert. Here are a few songs from my favorite album of his.
Redheaded Stranger was my introduction to Willie Nelson back in the seventies. It was a lot more fun being 20 in the 70's than it is being 70 in the 20's, but I did get to see Willie live five years ago. I enjoy your newsletter.