Israel Attacks Iran
A few observations about the initial stages of Israel's audacious military strike.
If you are a free subscriber and you like what you’re reading, maybe it’s time to upgrade to a paid subscription.
This newsletter is 100% reader-supported, and your subscription helps me continue publishing.
When you become a paid subscriber, you receive access to all my posts, the ability to comment on posts and engage in the Truth and Consequences community, and, above all, you get the warm and fuzzy feeling that comes with supporting independent journalism.
If you’re enjoying Truth and Consequences and find my work valuable, informative, and entertaining, please consider becoming a paid subscriber.
We are still in the very early stages of this attack, so I’ll offer a few initial thoughts.
Tactical Brilliance
My initial response to Israel’s launching of a military strike last night was that it seemed like, perhaps, not the best idea … but so far, it’s hard to imagine this going any better for Israel.
Israel’s surprise attack appears to have wiped out the top echelon of Iran’s military leadership. Tactically, the Israeli operation is extraordinarily impressive.
The attack was choreographed to simultaneously take down Iran’s defenses, degrade its ability to retaliate, kill key figures and damage nuclear sites.
One of the Israeli officials said that preparations included commando operations inside the Iranian capital, Tehran, and the establishment of positions inside of Iran armed with weapons that targeted Iran’s air defenses and explosive drones that hit long-range missiles that could be fired at Israel.
The Iranian officials said that teams of covert Israeli operatives had launched missiles and drones at targets from inside Iran.
A senior Israeli air force officer said that more than 100 aircraft had taken part in the attacks and that precise tracking enabled the targeting of senior military officials, nuclear scientists and command centers.
Israel has clearly been planning this attack for years, and like its 2024 devastation of Hezbollah, used precise intelligence to stun Iran’s leaders, weaken its air defenses, and make it more difficult for Tehran to retaliate.
My guess is that the initial stages of the operation will focus on preparing the battlefield, i.e., establishing air superiority, decapitating Iran’s military command and control, weakening Iran’s response capabilities, etc. The second stage will likely involve sustained military operations aimed at seriously degrading Iran’s nuclear capabilities. This won’t be a short war, and Iran is about to receive a crushing military blow.
The US Role
It’s still tricky to figure out how much the US knew about Israel’s plans in advance. A statement from Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested Israel kept the US in the dark, while Trump said the exact opposite this morning. My best guess is that Trump’s claims are correct and that Rubio is trying to distance the US from Israel to avoid Iranian retribution (nice of Trump to blow up Rubio’s effort at American subterfuge).
Whatever the case, I would imagine the US will help Israel defend itself against Iranian retaliation but seek to avoid getting directly involved in direct military operations. I also can’t imagine that Iran will go out of its way to attack US targets. What’s the point of bringing the US directly into the war?
I will shout this from the rooftops over the next few days and weeks, but yesterday’s strike likely would never have happened if Trump hadn’t torn up the Iran nuclear deal in 2018. Up to that point, Iran was adhering to the agreement. Pulling out of it is what made this attack possible.
Why Now?
There are likely four factors that drove Israel’s decision to attack.
Iran is much closer to having a nuclear bomb.
The lack of progress in nuclear talks (which the Israelis never believed would be a substitute for decisive military action)
The diminishment of Iran’s key allies/proxies in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza.
Last year’s airstrikes, which weakened Iran’s air defenses but also showed the limitations of Tehran’s potential response.
I think it’s entirely reasonable for Israeli to have concluded that a) Iran wants a bomb and is dead set on getting one b) they were dragging out negotiations with the US to get them closer to having one and c) the stars had aligned in a way that made an Israeli military attack far more viable.
To the latter point, October 7 laid the groundwork for this attack. In the last 20 months, Iran lost its two main regional proxies — Hamas and Hezbollah. Its only regional ally, the Assad government in Syria, has also disappeared, which was made indirectly possible because of the Israeli attacks on Hezbollah. If October 7 hadn’t happened, Hamas and Hezbollah would undoubtedly be firing missiles into Israel right now. For years, Iran stockpiled weapons in Lebanon for precisely this moment. But Hezbollah, which was severely weakened by Israel’s attacks on the group last year, has made clear it is sitting this one out. Without October 7, I’m not sure this attack would have happened. At the very least, it would have led to far greater casualties in Israel.
How Screwed Is Iran?
In the last 24 hours, Iran has seen its top military and political leaders, as well as key nuclear scientists, killed. Israel appears to have complete air superiority over the country and has already started attacking the country’s nuclear infrastructure. The Iranian military response, which appears to be targeting population centers in Israel, looks largely ineffectual (though it is early and things could change). Tehran has no allies in the region and is perhaps more isolated than ever. Oh, and also, the economy in Iran is in terrible shape, and the regime is deeply unpopular. I’m not saying that the Islamic Republic is on its last legs, but things don’t look good. So to answer my question above: very.
I strongly suspect that one of the key takeaways from this conflict is that we’ll discover Iran is a paper tiger, incapable of inflicting a grievous military blow on Iran … and I imagine that can’t be good for its domestic legitimacy.
In retrospect, devoting countless resources and turning Iran into an international pariah to develop a nuclear capability (as its nuclear infrastructure lies in tatters) might have been a sub-optimal decision by Iran.
“I strongly suspect that one of the key takeaways from this conflict is that we’ll discover Iran is a paper tiger, incapable of inflicting a grievous military blow on Iran…” ??
Most of these regimes follow the playbook of autocracies, touting their supposed power, using their assets to grow their militaries while subjecting their citizens to poverty and removing any rights to free speech, and isolating their countries from the world as much as possible. It's such a winning playbook that the US is now copying it....