It's Complicated
There's no simple explanation for what happened in the 2022 midterms. Also a new musical feature: "Today in Bob Dylan."
I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality of American politics. If you were sent this email - or you are a free subscriber - and you’d like to subscribe: you can sign up here.
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There are days and weeks when the words flow easily. There is so much to say and so much to write the word count ticks higher and higher.
Then there are the days and weeks when a blank page mocks you, and you‘d rather stick sharp pencils in your forehead than pen a single word. This week has been more the latter than the former. But the taskmasters in the hot-take salt mines are an unforgiving breed. “The news hole must be filled,” they bellow as they crack their whips and extol their sallow and eye-wandering laborers to produce … so here it goes.
Beware The Monocausal Explanation
Friend of the newsletter Brian Rosenwald has written a smart recap of the 2022 midterms (you should also subscribe to his Substack newsletter).
We saw a blue wave in some states — Pennsylvania, Michigan (the first time Democrats secured unified control of government in 40 years — and if it lasts a full term, the first time they’ve had that since Franklin Roosevelt was president), Colorado, Washington. You could argue for Minnesota and New Hampshire too. But we also saw a red wave in some places — especially Florida, New York, and South Carolina. And in other places — like Nevada and Arizona — we saw split decisions, as voters rejected extreme candidates and split their tickets. Overall, it was about as good a performance as a president’s party can have in a midterm election.
This is largely my take as well. In 2016, after Hillary Clinton lost, I wrote that the reasons for her defeat were … complicated. In Florida and North Carolina, she did better than Barack Obama in 2012 (he won Florida and narrowly lost NC) but fell short because Trump mobilized hundreds of thousands of new or occasional voters. A similar dynamic played out in Pennsylvania, where Trump received more than 400,000 more votes than Mitt Romney in 2012. Trump largely replicated Romney’s 2012 performance in Michigan and Wisconsin, but too many Democratic voters stayed home or voted for a third party, and that’s why he won. There was no single explanation for Trump’s victory.
We saw something similar in this election. As Brian points out, in PA and MI, Democrats crushed the GOP — a combination of abortion playing an out-sized role and extreme and lousy Republican candidates. In most of blue-state America, Democrats did quite well. They dominated in Colorado, Illinois, Minnesota, Washington, and pretty much all of New England — but dramatically underperformed in New York and, to a lesser extent, California. In the latter, Democrats hoped to flip multiple seats, and while we’re still waiting for results in the state’s 13th congressional race, it looks like not a single one will go from red to blue. Democrats really needed to do well in the two biggest blue states in the country, and they simply didn’t.
Wisconsin gave us a split result — a by-product of a reasonably popular governor and a not-so-great Democratic Senate candidate. In Nevada, the Democratic governor lost, but the Democratic Senator won reelection, and Dems won most of the major statewide races and held three House seats. So the Silver State remains an ever-so-slightly lean blue state. In Arizona, Democrats flipped the governor’s mansion, held in the Senate, and won the Secretary of State and Attorney General races (though the latter is going to an automatic recount). Like MI and PA, this is a by-product of the Arizona Republican Party falling off the crazy tree and hitting every branch on the way down. Democrats have won most of Arizona’s statewide races in the last three elections (2 Senate seats, governor, and Biden in 2020). This is another slightly blue state but certainly trending in a Democratic direction.
Florida is the major outlier (aside from New York), but that’s because Florida is the red-headed stepchild of America’s federalist system. (Don’t watch the video below if you’re easily offended because it’s definitely NSFW. You were warned).
So, in some places, abortion drove Democratic numbers up; in others (New York), the crime issue drove them down. Republicans benefited from good candidates and weak Democratic opponents in some places and were hurt by weak candidates and strong Democrats in others (there was a lot more of the latter than the former). In some states, like Georgia, Nevada, and Wisconsin, there was a combination of both. So, while it’s fair to say that Republicans underperformed and did worse than expected, there’s not necessarily a uniform explanation as to why.
Don’t Get Too Comfortable
One of the stranger dynamics of this midterm election is that the good times for both parties are unlikely to last. There are three 2024 Senate races in states that Donald Trump won but have Democratic Senators (Joe Manchin in West Virginia, Sherrod Brown in Ohio, and Jon Tester in Montana). If Manchin doesn’t run again (I suspect he will), then that seat is good as gone. It might be lost even if he does run. Jon Tester has won three statewide Senate races in a very red state, so he likely has a reasonable chance of winning reelection. The same goes for Sherrod Brown, but I like his chances less. Winning all three states, even in a presidential year when Democrats tend to perform better, will be a tall order. And Democratic incumbents will also be up for reelection in a host of swing states (Nevada, Arizona, and Wisconsin). On the GOP side, there are no vulnerable incumbents. Literally none. So the chances that Democrats keep their Senate advantage are very slim.
On the House side, Republicans will likely end up with a narrow 5-seat advantage. And a bunch of those seats — the five NY seats that flipped, Michigan-10, Oregon-5, potentially two Arizona seats that Republicans narrowly won — will be tough to defend. As Brian points out in his piece, “16-18 Republicans (are) sitting in Biden won districts.” Good luck defending those seats with Biden on the ticket in 2024.
McCarthy Agonistes
Over the past several days, House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy has said when Republicans take over the House, they will kick three Democrats off their committee assignments (Adam Shiff, Eric Swalwell, and Ilhan Omar), and he has told Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas that unless he resigns, House Republicans will, potentially, impeach him. McCarthy is doing this because a half dozen members of the GOP caucus said they wouldn’t vote for him to be Speaker, and he needs to win their support.
My guess is that eventually, the recalcitrant Republicans will come around and throw their backing behind him because there really is no alternative. Nonetheless, McCarthy’s recent outreach to the GOP’s jihadist caucus is a good preview of the problems he will regularly face over the next two years. If I had confidence that McCarthy was a smart and savvy politician who could manage these difficult waters, I’d say he’ll be fine. But he’s not a smart and savvy politician. Instead, he’s kind of a schmuck … or maybe a schlemiel (possibly a schlimazel). Bottom line: McCarthy will likely become Speaker, and he won’t have much fun. The House is going to be a shit show for the next two years.
What’s Going On
I haven’t made a TV recommendation in a while, but I just finished “The Patient” on Hulu, and it was absolutely terrific. Great acting, beautifully drawn characters, and a conclusion that completely satisfies.
If it’s Thanksgiving, you know what that means … Planes, Trains, Automobiles. Check out this oral history of one of my favorite movies.
Great piece by Dahlia Lithwick on more tales of leaking from the Supreme Court.
Fascinating longread on the disastrous Time Warner/AT&T merger.
There was a mass shooting earlier this week at an LGBTQ bar in Colorado Springs, and last night there was another mass shooting in Chesapeake, Virginia. In between, 418 people were shot in the United States — 160 were killed. We’ve reached the point that a day without a mass shooting in America is the exception, not the rule.
Sports … still the best
Musical Interlude
So a few weeks ago, I mentioned Ben Burrell’s fantastic podcast “Bob Dylan: Album by Album.” Since I started listening to it, I’ve been going back into Dylan’s back catalog, and it’s been a true joy to rediscover songs and albums that I haven’t given nearly enough attention to. So I’m going to start a new subsection of the “Musical Interlude” … “Today in Bob Dylan.”
Here are two gems: “Most of the Time” is from one of my favorite Dylan records, “Oh Mercy,” an album produced by Daniel Lanois and which heralded his late-career musical renaissance. Ben’s first podcast episode looked at this overlooked gem and, in particular, this gorgeous song about the permanent, often faint, scars left by heartbreak and loss. The lyric has a rawness and honesty, especially in the last stanza, which packs a wallop. Lanois’s swampy musical accompaniment beautifully accompanies it. Of particular note is the undulating bass line. Along with the spare guitar licks, it really drives the song forward and gives it a captivating intensity.
“Street Legal” is a mid-70s Dylan album that I never listened to much. I own the CD and probably listened to it once or twice before putting it aside. I recently bought the record on vinyl and gave it a re-listen … and boy, does it rock. It was hard to choose one song from this terrific album, but I’ll go with “Where Are You Tonight (Journey Through Dark Heart).” It’s a bit of a companion piece to “Most Of The Time.” This song is also about dealing with heartbreak and loss, and as Ben notes in his episode about this record, “Street Legal” feels more like a break-up album than the more famous and beloved “Blood On The Tracks.” But this song, at least in the last stanza, offers a slight element of hope (or as much hopefulness as you’ll ever find in Dylan’s lyrics).
There's a new day at dawn, and I've finally arrived
If I'm there in the morning, baby, you'll know I've survived
I can't believe it, I can't believe I'm alive
But without you it doesn't seem right
Oh, where are you tonight?But what I like about this song and, in fact, this entire record is that Dylan seems wholly committed to it. The vocal performance on this track is particularly strong. There’s a rawness and honesty to Dylan’s voice that I love, as if, at various points, he’s almost tripping over himself to get the words out of his mouth. There’s an intensity to this song as it builds and builds. It reminds me ever so slightly of “One Of Us Must Know (Sooner or Later)” from “Blonde on Blonde.” I’m also a sucker for the background vocals on this entire album, and on this track, they elevate things nicely. Throw in some tasty guitar solos, a ripping saxophone solo, and some lovely bongo playing and organ fills, and it adds up to a very strong number.
I’ve mentioned this before, but Willie Nelson’s “Red Headed Stranger” is a fantastic record and one I’ve recently found myself returning to regularly. If you’ve never listened to it, I recommend checking it out.
"Street Legal" is not his best album, but has been unfairly ignored and sometimes panned. I bought it in vinyl when it came out (late 70s, please), just because I liked the album cover, which is still one of his best. I know logically that you don't listen to the cover photo of an album and I my album budget was limited--people forget how inexpensive music is relative to back then. No one knew it at the time but it was also the last album he released before his born-again Christian phase. Great podcast, too; thanks.