It's Starting To Look A Lot Like Conviction
Mitch McConnell showed his hand on Trump's coming impeachment trial and it doesn't look good for the soon-to-be former president
Today should be the day we begin forgetting about Donald Trump, but there is still that matter of his coming Senate impeachment trial and I’m starting to get the impression that soon-to-be Senator Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has made up his mind about convicting Donald Trump.
Take a look at this passage from McConnell’s short speech in the Senate on Tuesday characterizing the riots that took place there just two weeks ago.
“The last time the Senate convened, we had just reclaimed the Capitol from violent criminals who tried to stop Congress from doing our duty. The mob was fed lies. They were provoked by the president and other powerful people. And they tried to use fear and violence to stop a specific proceeding of the first branch of the federal government, which they did not like.
“But we pressed on. We stood together and said an angry mob would not get veto power over the rule of law in our nation — not even for one night. We certified the people’s choice for their 46th president. Tomorrow, Vice President-elect [Kamala D.] Harris and President-elect [Joe] Biden will be sworn in. We’ll have a safe and successful inaugural right here on the west front of the Capitol.”
The key media takeaway from this passage was McConnell’s assertion that the angry mob that had attacked the Capitol were fed lies by President Trump. It’s a tacit acknowledgment that the president did in fact incite the insurrectionists, which is the specific accusation made in the article of impeachment against Trump. It’s very difficult to see how McConnell walks back a comment like this.
What I found of far greater interest, however, is McConnell’s contrasting of the president’s behavior with the actions of congressional Republicans. “We stood together and said an angry mob would not get veto power over the rule of law in our nation,” said McConnell.
It’s hard to read this as anything other than a play for political rehabilitation and obfuscation. “Don’t pay attention to all the terrible things we did to support and enable to Trump over the last four years, including initially refusing to recognize Biden’s electoral victory,” McConnell seems to be saying. “Look at what we did when American democracy hung in the balance.” McConnell is portraying the post-Trump Republican Party as cut from a different cloth than the former president, vigilant and resolute in its defense of the rule of law and the nation’s core democratic institutions. This is, of course, hogwash. No group of Americans did more to enable Trump and allow his degradation of American democracy and the rule of law than Senate Republicans. But it’s the smart political play if McConnell is trying to craft an image of the GOP separate from that of Trump. Considering the generally short attention span of the American public it’s not crazy to think that people will remember the party’s final dismissal of Trump, and send down the memory hole all the enabling that came before it.
A move like this is not without risk, most specifically in alienating Trump’s core group of supporters. But it’s not as if McConnell has a great set of options here; either he can continue to enable Trump, vote not to convict, and allow the former president to continue playing a major role in the GOP or he can finally begin disentangling the party from Trump. Is there a better time to do that than when the memories of January 6 are still fresh in voter’s mind and Trump’s political standing could not be lower? If you’re going to jettison Trump, now is the moment to do it, when he is his weakest and lacks the megaphone of the presidency - or Twitter - to strike back. I suspect that with Trump out of office, out of the news, and unable to reach his millions of supporters their affection for him will wane. They will find new enemies and with the help of Mitch McConnell and his fellow Senate Republicans it will likely be Joe Biden and the “radical socialist” Democrats.
Distancing the party from Trump - and soon - is also the quickest way to get the spigot of campaign contributions turned back on for Republicans seeking reelection in 2022. Perhaps in the process McConnell will have to hang out to dry a few of the more extreme House Republicans, or the unnamed “other powerful people.” That could include Rep. Mo Brooks of Alabama, the Arizona Bobsey Twins, Rep. Paul Gosar and Rep. Andy Biggs or even Senators Josh Hawley or Ted Cruz (though this is probably less likely). But the words of the “Godfather’s” Hyman Roth, they are “small potatoes” and can be easily sacrificed.
For McConnell, his apparent goal is to wipe off the stink of Trumpism and return to the mindless obstructionism that led the GOP to political victory during the Obama years. Indeed, in the second half of his speech yesterday McConnell spoke of the need for “robust discussion” seeking “common ground” and the pursuit of “bipartisan agreement.” These are three things that McConnell and his Senate GOP colleagues have no intention of actually pursuing but by presenting himself and the Republican Party as honest brokers - and, in his words, “we’re all in this together” - he will try to argue that when Republicans do oppose Biden’s agenda (as they surely will) it won’t be a continuation of Trumpism but a rather a return to the traditional back and forth of legislative politics. That’s the kind of battlefield on which McConnell wants to fight for the next 2 to 4 years, not one that is rehashing the excesses of the Trump era.
While, I am generally loathe to make predictions, reading between the lines of McConnell’s statement yesterday seems to suggest which direction he is leaning: toward convicting Trump of high crimes and misdemeanors and ensuring that he never holds public office again. We can be sure that if McConnell does come down on the side of conviction more than enough of his Senate Republican colleagues will join him. In the words, again, of the “Godfather” it’s the “smart move” and McConnell was always smarter.
I am looking forward to the national healing. In fact, I was feeling light hearted this morning, having watched the President go wheels up on Air Force One. How long can I sustain it?
Regards — Cliff