I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality. If you were sent this email or are a free subscriber and would like to become a paid subscriber, you can sign up here.
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As I Was Saying ...
Remember how on Friday I said the polls for Joe Biden were bad … well I wasn’t kidding.
President Biden is trailing Donald J. Trump in five of the six most important battleground states one year before the 2024 election, new polls by The New York Times and Siena College have found.
That is U-G-L-Y.
But here’s a little nugget that merits greater attention (from the Twitter feed of @umichvoter (who is a great follow).
Now, I want to be clear: I do not think for a second that Biden is losing Nevada by 11 points and that a Trump criminal conviction would move the numbers in a battleground state by 23 points. Most of the movement here (18 in Georgia, 17 in Michigan, 12 in Wisconsin) feels way too large. The political environment is far too polarized for me to believe that such shifts are even possible. But that some voters currently with Trump might switch to Biden seems quite possible. Indeed, the data furthers a point I made on Friday.
Donald Trump is facing four criminal indictments next year. There’s a reasonable chance he is convicted on at least one. None of us know how that will shift public opinion or if it will upend our politics. But it stands to reason that a criminal conviction of a presidential candidate could have an impact. Don’t even get me started on him being sentenced to prison. It’s tough for me to take anything about presidential politics seriously when these trials are still on the horizon.
So, all I’m saying is that a lot will happen next year that will affect voter decision-making in November 2024. In the meantime, touch grass. Don’t look at polls.
A criminal trial of a former president -- who is also the likely GOP presidential nominee -- will be one of the more seminal moments in American history. It's impossible to talk about 2024 without acknowledging its potential impact.
I don’t mean to play down Biden’s lousy poll numbers. They stink. There’s no way around it. I don’t think we can say in November 2023 where voters will be a year from now.
One way to think about these polls is that they represent a referendum on Biden. If the 2024 election is mainly about the president — not his opponent — then he is in trouble. But if the 2024 election is a referendum on Trump … well, that’s a different story. That’s an election where Biden would be favored. Much of what happens in 2024 will depend on Biden’s ability to make the race a referendum about Trump — and the increasingly extremist party that he leads.
Indeed, the NYT poll suggests many Americans have amnesia about Trump’s presidency.
The degree to which voters are turned off by Mr. Trump’s personality and bombast — which has been the glue helping keep together a fractious Democratic coalition for years — appears to have waned. Only 46 percent of voters said Mr. Biden had the proper temperament to be president, barely higher than the 43 percent who said the same of Mr. Trump.
I’m going out on a limb here, but I strongly suspect these numbers will shift between now and next November. That’s why we have presidential campaigns! Again, if Biden can’t do that, he will be a one-termer. But my guess is that he will get some help on this front from Trump.
Along those lines, let’s see how things went today in Trump’s civil fraud case in New York City.
He was belligerent and brash, unrepentant and verbose — regardless of the courtroom setting, he was the quintessential Donald J. Trump.
Within minutes of Mr. Trump’s taking the witness stand on Monday, his civil fraud trial in Manhattan devolved into a chaotic spectacle before a packed house. The former president lashed out at his accusers and denied their claims, even while conceding involvement in some of the conduct at the case’s heart.
Ranting and rambling as the courtroom pulsed with tension, Mr. Trump attacked New York’s attorney general, Letitia James, as a “political hack.” He derided the proceeding as “a very unfair trial.” And he scolded the judge overseeing the case, Arthur F. Engoron, for having decided before the trial that he had committed fraud.
“He called me a fraud, and he doesn’t know anything about me!” Mr. Trump exclaimed from the stand, pointing at the judge, who flashed a grin.
Trump is not a stable individual — and one can hardly expect this kind of outburst not to occur when he is facing criminal trials that could send him to prison for years. So, as I said on Friday, sit tight, and don’t panic … a lot of water will go under the bridge before voters decide the next president.
What’s Going On
Philip Bump is not convinced that the NYT poll is correct about Biden’s support among young voters.
Steve Scalise was asked five times if the 2024 election was stolen … you will absolutely believe what happened next.
Trump and his allies are plotting revenge if he wins back the White House.
It turns out that firing thousands of artillery shells melts your brain. Amazing reporting here from the NYT.
Musical Interlude
Of the three VU “says” songs, my favorite is “Stephanie Says.” I actually don’t love “Candy Says,” but I could hardly leave it out (and this rendition with Anhoni from Anhoni and the Johnsons is gorgeous). The “Lisa Says” is a live version, and it’s much better than the original (which is already pretty great).