It's Trump's Party
In the wake of Donald Trump's second indictment in 2.5 months there is little indication that Republicans are preparing to quit him.
I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality. If you were sent this email or are a free subscriber and would like to become a paid subscriber, you can sign up here.
Considering the gravity of and interest in Donald Trump’s federal indictment, I’m putting as much free content as possible outside the paywall. But if you’re enjoying the content at Truth and Consequences, I ask that you please consider a paid subscription. Ultimately, your financial support keeps the lights on at Truth and Consequences World Headquarters.
However, if money is tight or you’re already up to eyeballs in subscriptions, here’s another idea — share this article. Email it to a friend (or even an enemy). Post it on Facebook, Twitter, or LinkedIn. Text it to your wife, husband, mother, father, brother, sister, or even your creepy second cousin in Kalamazoo. Word of mouth is often the best way to build support for a creative endeavor, so if everyone here sends it to just one person … it would be much appreciated!
A few people have asked me recently whether Trump’s indictment is likely to undermine his standing in the Republican Party or dent his status as the frontrunner for the Republican nomination for president. Here’s my short answer:
As I noted on Twitter, this is your semi-regular reminder that half the country has completely lost its mind. It’s bad enough that 80 percent of Republicans think Trump should serve as president at all. But the notion that Trump should still be president, even if convicted of a federal crime, is so utterly insane that I struggle to process it. These numbers, however, are not surprising. After Trump’s first criminal indictment, his polling support among Republicans actually improved. There was no indication that his supporters were troubled by Trump’s behavior (He was indicted on March 31. Since then, the polling gap between him and DeSantis has grown by nearly 15 points).
If Joe Biden was charged with 37 felonies, I feel very confident in saying there is zero chance that 80% of Democrats would agree that he should still serve as president. Quite simply, there is a foul rot inside the corroded husk of the modern Republican Party. And as long as Republican politicians — including Trump’s 2024 presidential rivals — offer a full-throated defense of the former president, these numbers are unlikely to change dramatically.
So while it’s certainly possible that between now and the Iowa caucus or New Hampshire primary, Republicans will begin to abandon Trump, there is little reason — based on the polling we’ve seen so far — to expect that to happen. I firmly believe in basing our political expectations on what the data tell us, and on the issue of Trump’s support in the GOP today, the polls are unambiguously clear. The 2024 Republican nomination remains Trump’s to lose.
More On Trump’s Dishonest Defenders
An eagle-eyed reader read the Wall Street Journal editorial defending Donald Trump that I linked to in yesterday's post and noticed a glaring bit of dishonesty.
It’s striking, and legally notable, that the indictment never mentions the Presidential Records Act (PRA) that allows a President access to documents, both classified and unclassified, once he leaves office. It allows for good-faith negotiation with the National Archives. Yet the indictment assumes that Mr. Trump had no right to take any classified documents.
But as noted in Daniel Dale’s fact-check on Trump’s bogus post-indictment claims, this is not remotely true.
The key sentence from the Presidential Records Act is unequivocal: “Upon the conclusion of a President’s term of office, or if a President serves consecutive terms upon the conclusion of the last term, the Archivist of the United States shall assume responsibility for the custody, control, and preservation of, and access to, the Presidential records of that President.”
Jason R. Baron, former director of litigation at NARA, said in a Sunday email: “Under the Presidential Records Act, not a single document pertaining to the official business of the White House – classified or unclassified – should have been carted off to Mar-A-Lago. President Trump might consider such records to be ‘his,’ but they are not.”
I don’t know if the Journal is guilty of straight-up dishonesty or rather laziness (I lean to the latter), but as I noted in my response, it’s essentially impossible to defend Trump without lying.
What’s Going On
Fascinating study that shows social media dogpiles is driven not by moral outrage but rather by sadism.
A 4.5-hour podcast on the Grateful Dead’s “Dark Star” and its role in rock ‘n roll history. Yes, please! This won’t be everyone’s cup of tea, but I legitimately loved it and learned a ton.
Musical Interlude