Keep Your Voice Down

Republicans keep saying the quiet part loud about why they don't want Congress to get anything done. Also, can Donald Trump run out the clock on his 2024 criminal trials?

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Saying The Quiet Part Loud

Republicans keep publicly reveling in their political cynicism.

Take, for example, the bipartisan immigration bill being negotiated in the Senate. It is likely dead on arrival in the House because of opposition from Republicans — even though it is one of the harshest immigration bills in recent memory.

According to Axios, “The agreement would automatically reject migrants and asylum seekers from crossing the border illegally once the daily average for border crossings surpasses 5,000 over a week or crossings surpass 8,500 on a single day, sources tell Axios … Migrants could be granted exceptions for humanitarian reasons. There would also be harsher penalties for those who attempt to illegally cross the border multiple times, banning them from entering the U.S. after two attempts.”

From all appearances, Biden has more than met Republicans halfway on this issue — partly for political reasons (he wants to take immigration off the table for the 2024 election) but also for policy reasons (the bill is tied to increased aid for Ukraine, which House Republicans are blocking).

Yet, it’s not enough for House Republicans who don’t want to give Biden even the slightest political victory. You don’t have to believe me on this one. They’ve been saying it publicly.

Here is Rep. Troy Nehls talking about the bill this week with CNN’s Manu Raju.

"Why would we do anything right now to help him with that 33 percent?" (this is a reference to Biden’s approval ratings).

“Do you believe if Joe Biden's approval rate was at 53%, we would even be talking about the border? We wouldn’t be talking about the southern border. But he has to do something because he's hemorrhaging, he's bleeding. …So what he's going to try to do is try to come up with some border security plan, bipartisan through the Senate that is nothing but hogwash.”

Last month, Nehls made practically the same comment:

“I’m not willing to do too damn much right now to help a Democrat and to help Joe Biden’s approval rating. I will not help the Democrats try to improve this man’s dismal approval ratings. I’m not going to do it. Why would I?”

Not surprisingly, House Republicans are following Donald Trump’s lead on the bill. He has stridently opposed the legislation, calling it “another Gift to the Radical Left Democrats” and claiming “they need it politically, but don't care about our Border.”

The subtext here is that immigration and the border are the two issues that most animate Trump’s MAGA followers, and he doesn’t want to take them off the table as he gears up his presidential campaign against Biden.

This isn’t just a Democratic talking point. According to Oklahoma Sen. James Lankford, the lead Senate Republican in negotiating the deal, presidential politics drives the House GOP’s intransigence.

“It is interesting, Republicans, four months ago, would not give funding for Ukraine, for Israel and for our southern border because we demanded changes in policy, so we actually locked arms together and said, ‘We’re not going to give money for this. We want a change in law,’” Lankford said. “And now it’s interesting, a few months later, when we’re finally getting to the end, they’re like, ‘Oh, just kidding, I actually don’t want a change in law because of presidential election year.’”

According to Texas Rep. Tony Gonzales, House Republicans are, in fact, doing Trump’s bidding.

When the Senate started its bipartisan border negotiations last fall — a Republican demand, to be clear — it still was not entirely clear Trump would lock up the GOP nomination. More than three months later, as those negotiations come to a close, Trump’s collision course with Biden is threatening any deal in Congress that has Biden’s imprint on it.

So Trump’s attacks have become something of a bat signal now for many Republicans in Congress.

“When former President Trump says something, everybody listens,” said Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas), who hails from a border district. “Everybody.” (bold added)

And while some congressional Republicans have pushed back on this blind allegiance to Trump’s wishes, there are some, like Ohio Senator JD Vance, who argue otherwise.

“I’ve made the argument on Ukraine that it’s very stupid for us to get crosswise with the party’s nominees, especially on an issue where he’s very directly opposed to Joe Biden,” Vance said. “Where I am substantively aligned with President Trump, which is on most things, my strong preference is that the caucus listens to President Trump.” (bold added)

To explain their about-face on an issue that has been the top GOP policy talking point for years, House Republicans have shifted their argument. Many now say that no new immigration legislation is needed and that the border crisis would go away if Biden would merely enforce the laws on the books … which is an odd position, considering that last May, House Republicans passed their own comprehensive immigration legislation.

This situation is not necessarily a novel occurrence. Politicians often want to avoid policy outcomes that help their political rivals, particularly in an election year. But what’s striking about the current state of affairs is not only are Republicans publicly admitting it — but other Republicans are openly acknowledging that it’s precisely what’s happening!

By saying the quiet part loud and killing a bill that many liberal Democrats are saying is too draconian, the GOP is, ironically, handing Democrats a weapon for the 2024 campaign. Do you know what’s nearly as good as Biden signing immigration legislation? Running against Republicans killing an immigration bill and stating openly that they’re doing it for political reasons.

To be sure, I don’t know how much this helps Biden in the presidential campaign. There are so few swing voters, and I’m not sure how many will notice one way or the other if an immigration bill passes. It’s also not as if Trump won’t continue to attack Biden over the border — even if the bill passes. His supporters won’t care one way or the other. All Trump has to do is say “the border” and “illegal immigrants,” and MAGA world will clap their hands like Shamu trying to get a fish.

But vulnerable House Republicans, running in pro-Biden districts, need a policy accomplishment to run on. Hard-right Republicans, who don’t have to worry about reelection, are taking a big one away from them. And it’s not as if the House GOP has any other record to take to the voters next Fall. This Congress has been one of the least effective in recent memory.

More than anything else, the potential death of the immigration bill is yet another reminder that Republican politicians don’t care about policy outcomes — at all. They need issues to rile up their base and get them to the polls. Solving those problems is the last thing they want.

One More Thing …