Keystone Kops
Republicans may have shot themselves in the foot in the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania
I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality of American politics. If you received this email - or you are a free subscriber - and you’d like to subscribe: you can sign up below.
First, some quick housekeeping: there will be no Zoom Chat tomorrow, but I hope to be back with you next Friday.
Stepping on Rakes
Today, I have a new piece up for MSNBC on Tuesday’s primary in Pennsylvania. While much of the media focus has been on the still-undecided Senate race between Dr. Mehmet Oz and hedge fund millionaire David McCormick, I wrote about the gubernatorial primary. On the Democratic side, state Attorney General Josh Shapiro ran unopposed — and is the early favorite. On the Republican side, the winner was State Senator Doug Mastriano, who brings to the race a, how shall we say, colorful background,
Mastriano attended the Jan. 6, 2021 “Stop the Steal” rally in Washington and was near the U.S. Capitol when Trump supporters attacked it. Since then, Mastriano has spread numerous lies about the 2020 presidential election, and he even called for decertifying the election results. He’s taken the position that, irrespective of the popular vote, the Pennsylvania General Assembly has the “sole authority” to appoint presidential electors if an election is “compromised” (which he says happened in 2020). Not surprisingly, Mastriano was enthusiastically endorsed by former President Donald Trump.
… In addition to Mastriano’s conspiratorial views about the 2020 election, he is a full-on Christian nationalist who unabashedly argues that his version of Christianity should play a greater role in state government. Mastriano says he is "reclaiming" the state of Pennsylvania, which he calls the “promised land” "for Christ" and if he wins will restore "God's kingdom" in the state.
Not surprisingly, he is vehemently opposed to abortion – a problematic position as the Supreme Court appears to be on the verge of overturning Roe v. Wade. He frequently begins his campaign speeches by declaring, “Only biological women can participate in sports, day one” of his administration, and “CRT is done, boom, day one.” His political views are so extreme that he unapologetically refuses to engage with political opponents or even media outlets that don’t parrot his views.
In short, Mastriano is a political train wreck. He is as extreme a candidate as one can imagine in a state that rarely nominates fringe candidates, no less elects them. Even Republicans are not too crazy about Mastriano’s gubernatorial bid. In a masterpiece of passive-voiced language, the Republican Governor’s Association (RGA) put out the following statement after Tuesday’s outcome.
After 8 years of the disastrous policies of Tom Wolf, Republican voters in Pennsylvania have chosen Doug Mastriano as their nominee for Governor. The country, and Pennsylvania, is worse off under Democratic leadership and Josh Shapiro, who will continue the same policies that have led to record inflation and increased violent crime. The RGA remains committed to engaging in competitive gubernatorial contests where our support can have an impact in defending our incumbents and expanding our majority this year.”
As the kids might say … oof.
Note what isn’t mentioned here: an RGA commitment to helping Mastriano win. It’s entirely possible that the Pennsylvania governor’s race doesn’t even end up being all that competitive. So whoever wins the GOP Senate nod will have to outrun the Republican candidate on the top of the ticket. Think of it this way: let’s say Shapiro beats Mastriano by 8-10 points, which feels possibly conservative since, in 2018, the incumbent Democratic Governor, Tom Wolf, won re-election by 17 points. Can Oz or McCormick get that many voters to split their ticket for governor and senator? It’s possible, but it ain’t going to be easy. Republicans in Pennsylvania don’t have much margin for error. Since 2004 only one statewide GOP candidate for senator, president, or governor topped 51 percent. The other central element of this race is the abortion question. If the Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade, Pennsylvania will become a key battleground in the nation’s abortion politics. Pennsylvania’s state legislature is controlled by Republicans, who would be likely to pass a restrictive abortion ban that Wolf would veto. Shapiro could then run on a platform of keeping abortion legal in the Keystone State, which is a message he’s already previewing.
While Oz and McCormick spent much of the back end of the campaign beating each other up, they do share a few things in common — they are both exceptionally wealthy, and they don’t actually live in Pennsylvania. McCormick’s primary residence is in Connecticut, and Oz lives in New Jersey. According to recent polls, Oz, who Trump endorsed, is viewed more unfavorably by Republican voters than favorably.
They are perfect political foils for the goateed, shorts-wearing, Democratic nominee John Fetterman (pictured above). Fetterman has his political vulnerabilities. He is viewed suspiciously by some Black voters because of a 2013 incident in which he pulled a shotgun on a Black jogger in his neighborhood. He has taken a host of progressive policy positions. There’s an open question as to how his blue-collar, working-class aesthetic will play in the crucially important Philadelphia suburbs. But with Mastriano on the ticket and facing off against a highly flawed opponent (both Oz and McCormick are anti-abortion), he likely has a slight advantage heading into the Fall campaign.
It also probably doesn’t hurt that because of the closeness of the Oz, McCormick race and the likelihood of an automatic recount, we may not know the Republica nominee until June.
Having said all this, the fall political environment is shaping up to be dreadful for Democrats, so one should assume that the deck is stacked in favor of Republicans. But as we learned in 2010 and to a lesser extent in 2012 (years in which the national political environment also favored the GOP), candidate quality still matters. That year, Republicans lost very winnable races in Delaware, Colorado, and Nevada. Likewise, in 2012, the GOP blew pickup opportunities in Indiana and Missouri. I’m not saying the same thing will happen in 2022, but Pennsylvania is a light blue state. With Mastriano at the head of the GOP ticket, Republicans have handed the Democrats a huge opportunity.
What’s Going On
I’ve been resistant to writing about the Johnny Depp/Amber Heard trial, but Natalie Shure’s skepticism about the claims made by Heard captures many of my thoughts.
Interesting piece in the Washington Post about the links between George Wallace and Donald Trump. Six years ago, I wrote about those connections in the Boston Globe.
George W. Bush told on himself. Sometimes I think this guy is subconsciously trying to atone for the Iraq War (which he should).
Last week, I flagged a story about a significant discovery in why babies die from sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) … this week, I have reason to question my judgment.
Musical Interlude
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