Let's Not Make A Deal
Republicans confirm what's been obvious for a while: they don't want a border security deal.
I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality. If you were sent this email or are a free subscriber and would like to become a paid subscriber, you can sign up here.
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Thanks, But No Thanks
On Sunday, Senate Democrats released a $118 billion national security bill that includes aid to Israel and Ukraine and, most controversially, an effort to get the increasingly chaotic situation at the US-Mexico border under control.
The legislation is one of the harshest anti-immigrant bills in recent memory. It includes provisions making it “more difficult to claim asylum, vastly expanding detention capacity and effectively shutting down the border to new entrants if more than an average of 5,000 migrants per day try to cross over unlawfully in the course of a week, or more than 8,500 try to cross in any given day.”
The bill would also spend more than $20 billion to improve border security, hire new asylum officers and border security agents, and expand the number of detention beds and screenings for fentanyl and other illicit drugs.
Yet, it’s still not good enough for House Republicans, who practically fell over themselves to declare the legislation dead on arrival in the House.
So, to read between the lines, what House Republicans are doing here is delivering a message to Senate Republicans: kill this thing fast. If the bill passes in the Senate, it puts enormous pressure on House Republicans because if it comes to a vote in the House, there’s a reasonable chance it would pass. At the very least, the House GOP leadership would be under enormous pressure to bring the bill to the floor.
From a public relations standpoint, passage in the Senate would also highlight the fact that it is House Republicans who are responsible for the bill not becoming law. It gets a lot harder for Republicans to go to voters in November and say, “Biden and the Democrats won’t fix the border,” when border security legislation passed the Senate with the help of GOP votes (and Biden has made clear he will sign it).
While GOP Minority Leader Mitch McConnell hailed the bill for including “direct and immediate solutions to the crisis at our southern border,” it seems he doesn’t have the juice he once did with the GOP caucus. Senate Republicans have been coming out against the bill in significant numbers, undercutting not only their caucus leader but also Oklahoma Senator James Lankford, who spent months negotiating the deal with Democrats.
There was some reporting this morning that 12-20 Senate Republicans will support the bill in the Senate, but honestly, I’d be shocked if that happened. What’s the benefit for Senate Republicans to be on the record voting yes for a border security bill that more extreme members of the party are calling ineffective and a sell-out to President Biden?
My guess is that Senate Republicans will filibuster the bill and prevent it from ever coming to a vote. There really is no upside in Republicans doing anything else here. The border and immigration are the two issues that most anger rank-and-file Republican voters. Why would Republicans try to solve a problem that, in its current incarnation, pays near-constant political dividends? They don’t want a deal on the border. They never wanted one. They want the issue that makes their supporters angry. They’re not interested in solutions. Lather. Rinse. Repeat.
Even the Border Patrol Union is voicing support for the bill.
As bad as it is for this legislation to fail, since it’s tied to Ukrainian funding, it also means that Kyiv won’t be getting any assistance from the United States any time soon. The House GOP leadership has shown little inclination to support a standalone funding measure for Ukraine. In fact, it was their idea to tie Ukraine money to border security legislation. What an embarrassing and humiliating abdication of American international leadership.
Proving My Point …
No joke, I wrote this nearly 11 years ago when immigration reform died in the House in 2013.
Since passing the Senate with a filibuster-proof majority, immigration reform has gone from being a patient with an uncertain prognosis to one that's about to get transferred to hospice care. And the reason is rather simple – House Republicans are much more interested in keeping their base of conservative white voters happy than they are in improving their standing among Hispanic voters.
… If you're a House Republican in a solidly red district with few minority voters, not only do you not care about appealing to minority voters, but you're also deathly afraid of upsetting your white constituents – particularly if those white constituents are none too fond of "illegal immigrants". Although one might understand the logic of having the national party appeal to Hispanic voters to win presidential elections, the perception that you are turning your back on white voters is a recipe for political disaster. And so, for rank-and-file GOP congressmen, the smart strategy has always been to block immigration reform.
Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose
God Curse The King
I’m not a fan of the British Royal Family … but this guy cannot catch a break.
King Charles III has been diagnosed with a form of cancer and is suspending his public engagements to undergo treatment, casting a shadow over a busy reign that began barely 18 months ago.
He waited 74 years to become king, and now, 18 months into his reign, he is diagnosed with cancer. It’s hard to feel sorry for the guy (he’s lived a charmed life), but still, that’s a rough break.
What’s Going On
Jonathan Chait takes appropriate aim at grad students going after the UAW for endorsing Joe Biden’s reelection.
NBC News and CNN had pretty bad polls this weekend for Joe Biden, which showed him losing badly to Donald Trump. I’m not posting a link because, as I’ve often said, you shouldn’t pay attention to head-to-head polls nine months before Election Day. Quinnipiac had a very good poll for Biden last week … I’m not posting that link either.
Over the weekend, Joe Biden won the South Carolina primary by 94 points. Dean Phillips actually finished third behind Marianne Williamson.
Apparently, Joe Biden calls Donald Trump a “sick fuck” and an “asshole” behind closed doors. And who says this guy is not relatable?
I hope to do a longer Oscars preview article, but I saw Poor Things and American Fiction this weekend. The former was fantastic, a sumptuous visual feast, and Emma Stone should win every award for her performance. The latter was red hot garbage. I legitimately can’t believe anyone liked it or why Jeffrey Wright, who was at best serviceable, was nominated for “Best Actor.”
Here are my current rankings of the Oscar Best Picture nominees: Oppenheimer, Barbie, Poor Things, Anatomy Of A Fall, Zone of Interest, Holdovers (major gap), Killers Of The Flower Moon (major gap), American Fiction. I still need to see Past Lives and Maestro, though I’m inclined to skip the latter. The first six on the list are all terrific, and while Oppenheimer was clearly the best, the other five could easily be moved around — they are all equally good.
Musical Interlude
I’m in there somewhere!
I like this cover version. It’s got a lot of energy!
It's pretty hard to beat the original.
In the summer of 1989, Jerry was clean and sober, and as my kids would put it, “he was eating and leaving no crumbs.” This is from their three-night run at Alpine Valley, and the solo here is otherworldly — especially at the 7-8:00 minute mark. My god.
Progressive activists taking absolutist positions which harm their own cause? Surely you jest