Life Is Too Short To Watch Republicans Debate

Plus some highly speculative thoughts about the 2024 presidential election.

I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality. If you were sent this email or are a free subscriber and would like to become a paid subscriber, you can sign up here.

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Zoom Chats Are Back!

For those who follow me on Twitter, you are likely aware that I jokingly consider Ben Jacobs history’s greatest monster (it’s all an act, I assure you). But he recently wrote a great piece for The New Republic on the evolution of Never Trump Republicans into Democrats — and he will join me on Friday to discuss why these voters may be the crucial bloc in the 2024 election and Joe Biden’s best asset for reelection. We’ll be kicking off at 12:30 PM, so don’t miss it (and read Ben’s piece, it’s excellent). Here’s the link.

The Seven Dwarfs

Last night, my 11-year-old daughter said pretty much all that needed to be said about the second Republican presidential debate.

Out of the mouth of babes …

I watched about 30 minutes of this shit show, but after listening to Vivek Ramasmawy, the son of immigrants, declare to lusty applause that, as president, he would work to end birthright citizenship, which is enshrined in the 14th Amendment, I threw in the towel. Life is too short to watch a bunch of losers vomit out lowest common denominator political appeals intended to win over mouth-breaking reactionary racists. (Instead, my kids and I watched “How To With John Wilson,” a show we have come to adore, and you should watch).

So, if you want a recap of last night's events, go here or here. But the only summary you’ll need is that none of this matters. None of these people will be the Republican nominee … because math.

RealClearPolitics

Barring something completely unforeseen, Donald Trump (who wisely didn’t bother to show up) will be the Republican nominee next year. What took place last night was an audition to be Trump’s running mate, a preview of the 2028 nomination race, the further humiliation of Ron DeSantis, and, in the case of Chris Christie, an opportunity to slag Trump, whom he clearly despises. I understand why political journalists need to cover this stuff, but I feel no obligation to follow their lead — and there’s certainly no need for you to watch it.

Speaking Of Next Year …

I wrote this on Twitter yesterday and thought I’d pass it along. because I think it’s a useful way to think about next year’s presidential election.

Here’s what I wrote in response:

This is about where I assume the election stands today, a similar margin to 2020, with both candidates still needing to consolidate their bases. I would expect the final outcome — barring something unforeseen — to be within a few points of a Biden +5 baseline.

Remember that Biden won the 2020 election by a 4.5 point margin - 51.3 percent to 46.8 percent. If you assume that both candidates have still failed to consolidate their bases (Biden has a 77 percent approval rating among Democrats, and Trump is running in a contested primary), then both candidates will see some improvement as wayward Democrats and Republicans come back into the fold.

To that point, I came across this chart of Barack Obama’s approval rating among Democrats, and it’s very instructive when thinking about 2024.

Like Biden, Obama was at around 77 percent with Democrats about a year or so from reelection, but as the campaign heated up, Democratic voters came home. By election day, Obama’s approval rating was at 91 percent. It’s a useful reminder that presidential elections often have a catalytic effect on partisan attitudes — and that candidates of both parties tend to shore up their bases the closer the country gets to Election Day. I expect a similar phenomenon to happen to Biden, and it might even be more pronounced when you consider how much Democratic voters loathe Trump.

Conversely, Trump will almost certainly pull in Republican voters who support other GOP candidates (which is currently around 40 percent). Still, he has a ceiling problem. He hit 46.8 percent in 2020, and I’m not sure he can go much higher than that. If anything, I would not be surprised if he loses a small but significant support of Republican voters either who vote for Biden or stay home (maybe 5 to 15 percent). A lot of this will come down to turnout, and if Trump can turn out his voters at a higher clip than Biden (which is part of how he won in 2016), then he can pull off the win. But I don’t expect that to happen. Trump is too toxic and too despised. As long as the election is a referendum on Trump — and it’s already shaping up that way — it’s tough to see how he emerges victorious. With the important caveat that a lot can happen between now and next year, Biden up by 5 points (plus or minus 2 or 3 points) seems like as good a baseline as any to think about the next few months of presidential politics. My freezing cold take in September 2023 (which is kind of meaningless so far out) is that 2024 will look a lot like 2020 … with, at best, one or two states flipping but a similar popular vote and electoral college margin.

What About The Electoral College?