Lindsey Graham Done Messed Up

Also John Roberts doth protest too much

I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality of American politics. If you received this email - or you are a free subscriber - and you’d like to subscribe: you can sign up below.

So this happened today:

Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina introduced legislation on Tuesday that would institute a federal ban on abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy, moving to unite the Republican Party behind a position before midterm elections in which abortion rights have become a potent issue.

… Mr. Graham’s proposal would leave in place state laws with stricter abortion restrictions.

This inexplicable decision allows me to break out one of my favorite gifs

Let’s count all the ways this is a terrible political move.

1. For two months, Democrats have argued that if Republicans take over Congress, they will enact a federal abortion ban. For example, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told her Democratic caucus back in May, “Republicans have made clear that their goal will be to seek to criminalize abortion nationwide.” Graham just confirmed that talking point. He even told reporters earlier today, “If [Republicans] take back the House and Senate, I can assure you we’ll have a vote” on this legislation. This statement should be reported as an in-kind contribution to the Democratic Party.

2. The thing about Republicans proposing a national abortion ban is that it could be 15 weeks, 20 weeks, or 6 weeks. It doesn't matter. Voters will hear that two months after Dobbs, Republicans are trying to pass a federal "abortion ban." There’s no doubt that part of Graham’s thinking here is that this legislation allows Republicans to attack Democrats for supporting late-term abortions, but 15 weeks isn’t late-term, and … see my point above. If you’re explaining how your legislation is only kinda, sorta a federal abortion ban, you’re losing.

3. Up to now, one could argue that the national debate over abortion was more of a local issue. It mattered for governor’s races and state elections but less for federal contests. Graham’s gambit has helped nationalize the abortion issue, which Democrats have been trying to do since the Dobbs decision. Reporters now get to ask every Senate Republican how they will vote on his proposed 15-week ban, which before today was a hypothetical question they could parry away. Honestly, if there aren’t multiple bags of flaming poop left outside Graham’s Senate office tonight, I’ll be very surprised.*

4. Because the bill doesn’t override highly restrictive abortion laws in red states, it is, in effect, a direct attack on blue and purple state America. This is legislation specifically tailored toward forcing places like New York, California, New Jersey, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Nevada, etc., to have more restrictive abortion policies than those chosen by voters and their elected representatives. Put aside the hypocrisy of Republicans (including Graham) consistently saying after Dobbs that abortion policy should be left to the states and now taking it out of the hands of states; this is a move that can only further energize voters in those places where abortion is currently legal.

5. Anti-abortion voters don’t want 15-week bans. They want total abortion bans. So how does this help win their votes and get them more enthusiastic about voting in November? I understand that Graham is trying to split the baby here — by seeking a halfway point between a total abortion ban and a partial abortion ban, but all he’s done is piss off Democrats and done little to motivate Republicans.

6. Fifteen-week bans are not a smart political middle ground for Republicans. According to a Wall Street Journal poll earlier this month, only 30 percent of Americans support a 15-week ban. In April, 48 percent of Americans backed such a ban. One could argue that this shift is merely a response to the Dobbs decision, which leaked in May and dropped in June, but that’s the point. Overturning Roe v. Wade changed people’s views on abortion, with severe political consequences for Republicans. Americans want fewer restrictions on abortion, not more.

7. Graham’s ill-advised proposal is one more piece of evidence that Mitch McConnell has lost his mojo as Senate GOP leader. There is zero chance that Chuck Schumer would let one of his members propose something this politically toxic seven weeks before a midterm election. Indeed, two months ago, McConnell said that Republicans would not be pushing for a federal abortion ban if they took control of Congress. How he didn’t stop Graham from introducing this legislation is mind-boggling.

I also need to point out that later-term abortions (after 20 weeks, for example) are almost always a result of risks to the mother and/or the baby’s health. More often than not, they are heartbreaking decisions made by parents who are desperate to have children.

*I won’t actually be surprised.

John Roberts Doth Protest Too Much

Chief Justice John Roberts has some thoughts on those Americans who question the legitimacy of the Supreme Court.

“The court has always decided controversial cases and decisions always have been subject to intense criticism and that is entirely appropriate,” Roberts told a gathering of judges and lawyers in Colorado Springs. But he said that disagreement with the court’s role of deciding what the law is has transformed into criticism of its legitimacy.

“You don’t want the political branches telling you what the law is. And you don’t want public opinion to be the guide of what the appropriate decision is,” said Roberts, who added, to laughter, “Yes, all of our opinions are open to criticism. In fact, our members do a great job of criticizing some opinions from time to time. But simply because people disagree with an opinion is not a basis for criticizing the legitimacy of the court.”

Let’s unpack this argument.