Meet The New Boss ... Same As The Old Boss
Are Republicans poised to replace Donald Trump with someone actually worse? Plus a COVID update and why Joe Biden is looking good for reelection.
I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality of American politics. If you were sent this email or are a free subscriber and would like to subscribe, you can sign up here.
I’ll be Zoom chatting tomorrow at 12:30. I was debating whether I should push things off to next week, but it’s been while, and I miss you guys! So it might be a slightly shorter call, but let’s give it a whirl. The link is here.
Out Damned Spot
I have a new piece up at MSNBC on Ron DeSantis’s recent announcement that he is asking the Florida Supreme Court to empanel a grand jury to “investigate any and all wrongdoing in Florida with respect to COVID-19 vaccines.”
As I note in the column, DeSantis is not interested in looking at why only 72 percent of Florida residents are fully vaccinated even as the number of COVID cases in his state is steadily rising – and vaccines have been readily available for more than 18 months. Nor does he appear concerned that Florida has the fourth lowest rate in the country for COVID booster shots and a vaccination rate for children and teens well below the national average.
Instead, DeSantis wants the court to investigate the drug companies that produced the vaccines and the public health officials who promoted their use.
This is all part of DeSantis’s apparent strategy to cultivate the GOP’s prominent anti-COVID vaxxer wing. This move is, of course, deeply cynical, but it’s also one that brings with it deadly consequences.
Case in point … this chart:
The current number of Americans with two doses of the COVID-19 vaccine is 68 percent. At the beginning of the year, that number was around 62 percent. The total number who have received at least one dose is 79 percent — it was 74 percent at the beginning of the year.
To put this in simpler terms, fewer than 18 million Americans have gotten fully vaccinated this year (and approximately the same number have received at least one dose)— even though COVID vaccines are readily available, overwhelmingly effective, and have, according to a new report by the Commonwealth Fund, prevented more than 3 million deaths and more than 18 million hospitalizations. Globally, close to 5.5 billion people have received at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine, equal to about 71.3 percent of the world population. The COVID vaccines are — and this is not an exaggeration — a miracle.
Even with all the data we have on vaccine effectiveness — and the steep drop in COVID deaths since they became available — the country’s vaccination numbers have hardly moved. Approximately one-third of the country still refuses to protect themselves and others from a virus that has killed 6.6 million peopleworldwided. Of course, they put themselves in harm’s way by not getting vaccinated, but they also endanger others, particularly the immunocompromised.
According to one estimate, more than 319,000 lives would have been saved if every American had gotten vaccinated. There are lots of reasons why so many Americans still refuse to get the COVID-19 vaccine. But we all know one of the major reasons — politics, and in particular, the anti-vaxxer attitudes among Republicans.
This chart speaks volumes.
Far more of these preventable deaths occurred in red states. To be sure, a few blue states have a higher number of preventable deaths (Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico), but the red/blue divide is clear.
Then again, you don’t need to believe your lying eyes … the data on this point is clear:
Covid deaths are unevenly distributed among Republicans and Democrats.
Average excess death rates in Florida and Ohio were 76% higher among Republicans than Democrats from March 2020 to December 2021, according to a working paper released last month by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Excess deaths refers to deaths above what would be anticipated based on historical trends.
A study in June published in Health Affairs similarly found that counties with a Republican majority had a greater share of Covid deaths through October 2021, relative to majority-Democratic counties.
Interestingly, the researchers are unclear whether vaccine hesitancy or refusal to abide by mitigation strategies are the reason for the partisan divide. However, the NBER study shows that “the partisan gap in the deaths widened from April to December 2021, after all adults became eligible for Covid vaccines. Excess death rates in Florida and Ohio were 153% higher among Republicans than Democrats during that time.”
The disturbing conclusion from these numbers is that hundreds of thousands of Americans needlessly died from COVID and many of them for no other reason than their partisan affiliation. And for this, Republican politicians like Ron DeSantis and conservative media figures like this dipshit with one million followers on Twitter deserve much of the blame.
These people have blood on their hands — and one of them, DeSantis, is considered a potential frontrunner for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. For all the talk about the GOP moving on from Donald Trump and his 2020 election mania, his palling around with white supremacists, and his anti-democratic tendencies, this is the leading alternative — a cynical, borderline nihilistic anti-vaxxer.
The damage that DeSantis can do is not just restricted to COVID. His announcement on Tuesday also included this tidbit of news: “the launching of a public health integrity committee that would work in opposition to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. According to DeSantis, the nation’s foremost public health agency ‘is not serving a useful function; it’s really serving to advance narratives rather than do evidence-based medicine.’”
It’s not enough to kill Americans from COVID; DeSantis seems inclined to undermine the entire edifice of reliable public health information in this country. As bad as another Trump presidency would be … this guy might be worse.
Speaking Of Trump …
All this week, Donald Trump has been teasing a major announcement … and here it is:
This is only an appropriate Christmas gift if your goal is to make the recipient cry.
By the way, this was the response from Joe Biden’s Twitter feed … and it’s good.
We’re two years out from the next presidential election, and Joe Biden is in pretty good shape for reelection. He’s consolidated support within the Democratic Party (there’s about zero percent chance of him getting a significant primary challenge). The economy is not out of the woods yet, but the inflation numbers are improving, and gas prices continue to decline. He’s going to be facing off against a Republican Party that is fully in thrall to its extremist wing and is heading into a presidential nomination fight that promises to be ugly as hell. His approval numbers are not great, but except for a brief blip in September, they are at their highest point since December 2021. Plus, he has history on his side — presidential incumbents usually get reelected. This is not to say he’s definitely going to win, but suffice it to say, from a political standpoint, things are looking pretty solid.
Is Trump In Trouble?
This might be the most insane poll variance I’ve ever seen:
What the hell am I supposed to make of this? If you look deeper, there’s a recent Marist poll with Trump up 14 points and a WSJ poll with DeSantis ahead by 12.
I sense that the DeSantis numbers are probably inflated because he’s not a known figure, like Trump, and we’re more likely to see his numbers fall as people get to know him more. That’s how these things usually go in politics.
The other issue is that DeSantis will almost certainly not be running head-to-head against Trump. We’re likely getting a crowded field of Republican aspirants, especially now that Trump appears as vulnerable as ever. Of course, the same thing happened in 2016, as Trump benefited enormously from the anti-Trump vote being split among several candidates. If Trump is somewhere between the numbers above — let’s say with 41% in party support — he will be a formidable candidate. Not just because he’ll face off against a host of contenders but because if Trump can still win over 41% of Republicans after all the shit, he’s done the past 7.5 years, is there any reason to believe that number will decline? I would wager that his current numbers among Republicans will remain relatively solid.
Also, the GOP presidential primaries and caucuses are generally winner-take-all. They are not apportioned by the percentage of votes won, as is the case with Democrats. That’s how Trump won in 2016 by winning pluralities of voters but all the delegates. All of this is a long way of saying I wouldn’t take these head-to-head polls too seriously. Look at Trump’s numbers. If they remain solid among Republicans — and lots of other Republicans jump into the 2024 race — he will be tough to beat for the nomination.
What’s Going On
Great column by Perry Bacon Jr. on Ron Brownstein, who is arguably the best political reporter in the country and a journalist who I model my own political writing after.
I’ve been making this argument for a while but South Carolina Senator Tim Scott might be the best potential GOP nominee for 2024.
This is from a few weeks ago but apparently expiration dates are completely meaningless.
I loved this piece by Christian Cauterucci on Kyrsten Sinema’s side hustle on Facebook Marketplace.
Musical Interlude
Today In Bob Dylan
There are a few paths to go if you’re looking for a Dylan song around the theme of a boss … but this seems like the most obvious choice.
I’m not sure why I thought of this cut too, perhaps because I’ve been meaning to post it for a while … but “Neighborhood Bully” is one of Dylan’s more fascinating tunes. It’s a full-throated defense of Israel and, in particular, its decision to launch an aerial attack on a nuclear power plant under construction in Osirak, Iraq. The song appears on 1983’s “Infidels,” which was Dylan’s first LP after his so-called Christian period so perhaps he’s going full circle here and getting back in touch with his Jewish roots — though Dylan has denied (albiet unconvincingly) that it’s a political song. It’s also a strange song in that it’s themes are so straightforward. There is none of the metaphors and surreal lyricism that so often defines Dylan’s songwriting.
Well, the neighborhood bully, he's just one man
His enemies say he's on their land
They got him outnumbered about a million to one
He got no place to escape to, no place to run
He's the neighborhood bully.… Well, he knocked out a lynch mob, he was criticized
Old women condemned him, said he should apologize
Then he destroyed a bomb factory, nobody was glad
The bombs were meant for him. He was supposed to feel bad
He's the neighborhood bully.… Every empire that's enslaved him is gone
Egypt and Rome, even the great Babylon
He's made a garden of paradise in the desert sand
In bed with nobody, under no one's command
He's the neighborhood bully.
I mean there’s not a great deal of ambiguity here. Those who support Israel will find a lot here to nod their heads too. Those less supportive will not. Personally, I just think it’s an interesting tune that provides some compelling insight into Dylan’s personality and his undoubtedly complicated feelings about his Jewish ethnicity.