My Hot Takes on the New Hampshire Primary

The GOP race is over. Trump had a good, not great night -- but there are worrying signs in the exit polls. Biden's night was pretty, pretty, pretty good.

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The GOP Race Is Over

Last night, voters in New Hampshire cast their ballots in the first primary of the 2024 presidential campaign … and based on the results, it might be this election's last important primary contest. Still, there are several interesting takeaways from the vote.

New York Times

This race ended up closer than expected — with Haley slightly overperforming the pre-election polls. But, the bottom line is that if Haley can’t win in New Hampshire, with its somewhat more moderate GOP electorate and large number of independent voters … she ain’t got a chance. Even if she had prevailed in the Granite State, there was likely no real path to the nomination. But losing by double digits in what was probably her best state means this race is over.

She indicated last night that she would stick it out until South Carolina, the next competitive primary. Still, I wouldn’t be shocked if Haley didn’t see the writing on the wall and decided to avoid an embarrassing defeat in her home state.

Trump Had A Good, Not Great Night

Shutterstock

Any time you win a competitive primary, it’s reason for celebration, but I’m not overly impressed with Trump’s win. He is basically the incumbent candidate. Republican voters know him and have long ago decided what they think of him. You’d expect him to do better than 54% in a two-person race.

Moreover, according to the exit polls, Trump performed badly with women, college-educated voters, and independents, whom he lost by 19 percent to Haley. This is a microcosm of his larger political problems. He alienates women, college-educated voters, independents, and voters. These voters have moved solidly toward the Democrats over the past eight years. Last night was more of the same.

Trump fared particularly badly with moderate voters, which sharply contrasts with 2016 when moderates were a source of strength for Trump.

This is from the 2016 CNN exit poll in New Hampshire.

Trump got a third of moderate voters in 2016. This time, he got less support from moderates (in a two-person race while cleaning up among conservatives.

Part of what’s happening here is that Republican voters are redefining themselves as conservatives. But it’s also the case that Trump did well among moderates in 2016 because he was seen as less ideological and less religion-focused than his opponents. What is perhaps most interesting about Trump’s 2016 bid is that he did well across the GOP ideological spectrum. This time around, he’s repulsing moderate voters. Again, it speaks to Trump’s larger political problem: his base of support is exceedingly narrow.

Along these lines, this chart from Steve Kornacki is fascinating.

As Kornacki points out, this is a 71-point gap in Republican and independent support for Biden. That is, by far, the largest margin ever for a winning GOP candidate. But what I find most interesting is that recent GOP winners in New Hampshire performed well among Republicans and independents. The only one who didn’t win both was McCain in 2008 — and he lost Republicans to Mitt Romney by one point. Trump is the polar opposite.

High Floor/Low Ceiling

Here are two more exit poll results that are interesting.

So 38 percent of New Hampshire GOP voters will be dissatisfied if Trump wins, and 42 percent would consider him unfit for the presidency if he is convicted of a crime. Now granted, these numbers are skewed by the large number of independent voters, but still, there are plenty of Republicans expressing these views. Most of these voters will still likely vote for Trump. But, as I’ve said before — and I’ll say a lot between now and November — Trump is a high-floor/low-ceiling candidate with very little margin for error. If he’s losing even 10-15 percent of Republicans, it’s very hard for him to win. Also, it’s one thing for them to stay home, but if they flip and vote for Biden, it’s even more disastrous for Trump - because that counts as, basically, a two-vote boost to Biden.

A Divider, Not A Uniter