No, Democrats Should Not Stop Talking About Kilmar Abrego Garcia

The politics of immigration are not as bad as they seem for Democrats and, even in politics, principles matter.

I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality of American politics. If you were sent this email or are a free subscriber and would like to become a paid subscriber, you can sign up here.

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CBS News

Right after the 2024 election, I wrote a piece arguing that the best political path forward for Democrats was to sit back and do nothing. Trump would inevitably overreach, creating a political backlash, and Democrats would reap the whirlwind.

So far, I’m feeling pretty good about that analysis.

Trump is 5.1 points underwater and down -16.6 since the inauguration. Eighty-eight days into his presidency, according to Nate Silver, that’s worse than any president in his database, aside from Trump’s first term.

Will Trump’s political fall continue? Who knows? Though considering what he’s doing to the economy with tariffs, one can certainly imagine that his numbers could stay south for a while.

Nonetheless, pundits continue to find time to criticize Democrats. Some are hitting Dems for prioritizing the illegal deportation of Kilmar Abrego Garcia over the economy.

Others, like Jonathan Chait at The Atlantic, are criticizing Democrats for equivocating on tariffs — and not standing up more forcefully in favor of free trade.

Here’s the thing: these arguments aren’t necessarily wrong. Based on the numbers, Democrats should focus on the economy rather than immigration. The former is a political winner for Democrats; the latter is a political winner for Republicans. Chait is correct that Democrats equivocate on free trade and should speak out more forcefully in favor of it.

But all these arguments tend to miss the point …

What Democrats do or say right now doesn’t matter all that much.

The fact of the matter is that nothing Democrats say or do in April 2025 is going to have a meaningful political impact on the midterm elections in November 2026. The chances that voters even remember what they say 18 days from now, no less than 18 months, is slim to none. It’s also unlikely to have much impact on Donald Trump’s declining poll numbers.

So if they choose to advocate on behalf of a legal resident illegally deported to El Salvador, that’s fine.

Voters tend to have the memory of fruit flies, and most rarely pay attention to what’s happening in Washington or even the news. Cilizza is right, for example, when he says that newscasts are focusing on the Garcia case rather than the economy, and that’s probably worse for Democrats. However, I feel pretty confident that voters' concerns about the economy are not correlated with how often and forcefully Democrats discuss it, or how frequently they see it mentioned in the news. In 2022 and 2023, many online Democrats attempted to convince themselves that the reason Joe Biden was performing poorly in the polls was that the mainstream media was highlighting the shaky economy. That was a silly argument then, and it’s a silly argument now. If there’s one thing that voters can generally suss out on their own, it’s a lousy, underperforming economy. Indeed, this is why Trump’s tariff debacle is such a profound unforced error: higher inflation, increased economic uncertainty, chaos on Wall Street, and recession fears don’t need to be explained to voters. They get it.

For example, consumer sentiment hasn’t been this low in more than 70 years!

Americans are rarely this pessimistic about the economy.

Consumer sentiment plunged 11% this month to a preliminary reading of 50.8, the University of Michigan said in its latest survey released Friday, the second-lowest reading on records going back to 1952. April’s reading was lower than anything seen during the Great Recession.

President Donald Trump’s volatile trade war, which threatens higher inflation, has significantly weighed on Americans’ moods these past few months. That malaise worsened leading up to Trump’s announcement last week of sweeping tariffs, according to the survey.

“This decline was, like the last month’s, pervasive and unanimous across age, income, education, geographic region and political affiliation,” Joanne Hsu, the survey’s director, said in a release.

“Sentiment has now lost more than 30% since December 2024 amid growing worries about trade war developments that have oscillated over the course of the year,” she added.

Look at this chart!

Second, as Elliot Morris points out in a very interesting post, Trump has high approval numbers on immigration in general, but not on the specifics.

Elliot Morris Substack

Democrats are unlikely to shift public opinion in their favor on immigration. But if they can poke holes in Trump’s approval numbers and highlight the places where his immigration policy is inhumane, illegal, or simply unpopular, they might be able to claw back some support.

Dems are not going to win back voter credibility on immigration by trying to out-Trump this administration. We know from current experience that Trump can and will continue to push the envelope further on this issue, and much further than Democrats can accept. But that doesn’t mean they can’t highlight his immigration extremism — and the Abergo Garcia case is a good place to wage that fight.

Finally, there’s a moral consideration. Trump’s actions are not just inhumane — they are unconstitutional. If Democrats aren’t going to wage this fight, on this issue, and for this man, then what the hell is the point of being a Democrat? Politics are important, but so are principles, and if Democrats can’t advocate on behalf of Abergo Garcia, but also due process and the rule of law, then they might as well call it a day. This is not a fight Democrats asked for or want to take on, but too bad. When the president is a wannabe authoritarian and a moral pygmy, focusing on the issue that polls better — 18 months before an election — is not the wise or moral option.

What’s Going On

• This clip of Lisa Murkowski saying that she’s afraid to speak out because of MAGA fanaticism is truly dark.

• The Trump White House wants to decimate public health in America.

• Have astronomers found signs of life in the universe? Maybe

• Trump wants to revoke Harvard’s tax-exempt status, which is almost certainly illegal, and is definitely a harbinger of his authoritarian impulses.

• Elon Musk has some weird-ass views on procreation.

Musical Interlude