No Money ... Mo Problems
Donald Trump has some serious money issues ... also Happy Birthday to me!
I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality. If you were sent this email or are a free subscriber and would like to become a paid subscriber, you can sign up here.
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Trump’s Cash Woes
There’s been a lot of talk in recent weeks about Trump’s growing money problems — in particular, the close to $500 million that he owes the state of New York for his conviction on civil fraud charges. However, not nearly enough attention is being paid to his campaign crunch.
This is from a Monday CNBC story:
Donald Trump’s reelection campaign has begun to see warning signs that the small-dollar donors who fueled his last run for the White House have slowed their support to the former president this year, according to people familiar with the matter.
… The drop in Trump’s small-dollar donations is magnified by a second problem: Many wealthy Republican donors have yet to commit to giving millions of dollars toward a pro-Trump political action committee, or to using their extensive networks to raise money for the campaign, according to people familiar with the matter.
Beyond Trump-specific entities, some donors are also hesitant to fund the Republican National Committee, or a newly created joint fundraising committee that will raise money for the RNC, Trump’s campaign and dozens of state GOP parties, according to people briefed on the matter.
Their reluctance stems, in part, from concerns that the RNC will use the money not to help elect Republicans, but to pay for Trump’s extensive legal fees, sources said.
And there’s more …
Donald Trump’s leadership PAC spent another $5.6 million on legal expenses in February, furthering a trend that has seen the former president put valuable campaign dollars into his courtroom fights.
That leadership PAC, Save America, was kept afloat last month by a $5 million refund from another Trump-related political group, the super PAC Make America Great Again Inc. The latter entity has now sent more than $50 million to Save America since last year to help cover Trump’s many legal costs.
Trump’s actual campaign brought in $10.8 million from his joint fundraising committee, a greater transfer than in January. And it was left with $33.5 million at the end of the month. But that money will be needed to help the former president catch up to Joe Biden, whose campaign enjoys a massive cash advantage.
How significant is Biden’s financial advantage? In February, he raised $53 million, giving him $155 million in cash on hand. Next week, he’s scheduled to hold a fundraiser at New York’s Radio City Music Hall, which CNN says “may become the single biggest fundraising event ever.”
There is a tendency to overstate the importance of money in politics. In 2016, Trump was badly outspent by Hillary Clinton and still won the presidency. However, he benefited from billions in free media that year, an advantage he likely won’t have in 2024.
Still, the better-funded candidate generally has a major edge, and it seems that Biden will have significantly deeper pockets than Trump this time around.
There is also the point raised above—the reluctance of some Republican donors to give money to the RNC because they fear the money will be diverted to pay for Trump’s legal fees. Considering that Trump’s daughter-in-law, Lara, has been elected co-chairman of the RNC, it seems those fears are well-founded.
The money crunch at the RNC could have two significant impacts. First, it will undercut GOP efforts to build out its campaign ground game. (One of the reasons that Trump didn’t suffer as significantly from his fundraising disadvantage in 2016 is that the RNC made up some of the slack). The second problem is the down-ballot effect on congressional Republicans. If all the resources of the RNC are going to help Trump — and potentially pay his legal fees — guess who pays the price? Other Republican candidates.
On the Biden side, he has money to burn … and he’s already spending it. After his March 7 State of the Union Address, “he launched a six-week, $30 million ad blitz in swing states.”
This spending might be responsible for a slight uptick in Biden’s polling numbers. According to 538, Biden’s approval has improved by 3 points in the last week (though it’s still negative) — and Trump’s lead in head-to-head polls has narrowed to a single point. It could be polling noise, but it also wouldn’t be shocking if a multi-million dollar investment in ad spending is helping Biden’s numbers.
While Biden can spend more money on campaign ads, one can quickly reach a point of diminishing returns. Considering how few states will be up for grabs in 2024, there are only so many ads that any campaign can run. But in an election where motivating Democratic partisans will be key, the more Biden can invest in get-out-the-vote efforts, the better his chances of winning critical swing states like PA, MI, WI, and GA (among others).
More money for Biden also means the president can widen his electoral horizons. According to a memo this week from Biden’s campaign manager, Julie Chavez Rodriguez, Biden is looking at“expanding the map in places like Florida and Texas.”
Take this with a major grain of salt. If Florida and Texas are in play this cycle, then Biden isn’t just going to win; he will wallop Trump. There is simply no path to the White House for Trump if he doesn’t win both states — and even if he does them, his path is still a bit tricky.
I’m skeptical that Biden intends to follow through on this strategy. Campaigning in Florida and Texas is very expensive and, in the case of Florida, the state Democratic Party is a dumpster fire. However, the Biden campaign certainly has the resources to dip its toe in Texas and Florida, and perhaps even more importantly, it sends a signal to the Trump campaign that they may need to spend money in both states — money they don’t necessarily have.
That will make for some tough decisions among Team Trump and could stop them from competing in certain Democratic states.
This is where money can make a real difference in a campaign—it both increases options and limits them. From that perspective, as the Fall campaign heats up, Biden has a broader set of possibilities than Trump. It doesn’t mean he’ll win, but with seven months until Election Day, it’s a better place to be.
What’s Going On
I think this Biden campaign ad is excellent because anything the president can do to remind Americans of the shit show that was Trump’s term in office is a good thing.
In this week’s GOP primaries, non-Trump candidates got 20 percent of the vote in both Florida and Ohio, and it appears that Trump is underperforming in the same affluent communities where he underperformed in earlier primaries.
This is a fascinating piece on Kristi Noem’s personal transformation to make her more appealing to Donald Trump.
The Associated Press says Trump is making January 6 the cornerstone of his Fall campaign. I’m not sure that’s a very good idea. In fact, I think it’s a terrible idea since most Americans don’t look kindly on the former president’s lies about the 2020 election or the insurrection he cited.
Musical Interlude
Happy Birthday Michael!
HAPPY BIRTHDAY, MICHAEL!!!