Not So Super Tuesday

Welcome to the longest eight months of our lives. Also, a word on Kyrsten Sinema's political self-immolation and the GOP targets the Holocaust denial community.

I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality. If you were sent this email or are a free subscriber and would like to become a paid subscriber, you can sign up here.

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Apologies for the late missive this week, but a lot is going on. I’m working on a longer essay that I don’t want to discuss publicly quite yet, but let me just say researching and writing it has taken a personal toll. Hopefully, I can discuss it at greater length in a Zoom chat on Friday.

However, I have two other new pieces up.

One in the Daily Beast reviews a new book by Tom Schaller and Paul Waldman, which argues that every stereotype liberals have about MAGA Republicans is true.

In the popular imagination of many Americans, particularly those on the left side of the political spectrum, the typical MAGA supporter is a rural resident who hates Black and Brown people, loathes liberals, loves gods and guns, believes in myriad conspiracy theories, has little faith in democracy, and is willing to use violence to achieve their goals, as thousands did on Jan. 6.

According to a new book, White Rural Rage: The Threat to American Democracy, these aren’t hurtful, elitist stereotypes by Acela Corridor denizens and bubble-dwelling liberals… they’re facts.

Schaller and Waldmen do not mince words about what this means for the future of democracy in America. “Rural voters—especially the White rural voters on whom Donald Trump heaps praise and upon which he built his Make America Great Movement—pose a growing threat to the world’s oldest constitutional democracy.”

Read the whole thing here — and buy the book!

Also, for MSNBC, I explain why Donald Trump is the “Being John Malkovich” candidate.

In 1999’s “Being John Malkovich,” John Cusack, a puppeteer, takes a new job in an office on the 7½ floor of a New York City office building where he discovers a door that provides him a portal into the mind of actor John Malkovich.

The low ceiling means those on the 7½ floor must walk hunched over. That image gives us the single best description of Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign. Trump has a high floor, but he will have a difficult time winning the White House again if he can’t raise his ceiling. So far, he’s not even trying to do that.

But there is plenty of news from the campaign trail … so here’s my take.

Super Lousy, Am I Right?

Another primary election and another result that is not surprising to anyone—Trump won big, and Biden won big. See you in November.

The only notable result on the presidential level was Nikki Haley's winning the Vermont primary, which I’m sure will provide her with real nostalgia when her presidential campaign ends any day now. (And as I prepare to hit send on a piece I wrote last night, Haley has made it official—she’s out.)

This photo from the NYT’s amazing photographer Doug Mills of the watch “party” last night at Mar-a-Lago is worth way more than a thousand words.

Doug Mills/NYT

Haley’s departure, notwithstanding, last night exposed Trump’s political problems again.

In Virginia, Haley performed best in suburban, affluent counties like Fairfax, Arlington, Falls Church, Arlington, and Albemarle (home to the University of Virginia). In Minnesota, Haley did well in Hennepin County, which is home to Minneapolis and its surrounding suburbs. In North Carolina, her best numbers came in Wake and Mecklenburg County, or Charlotte, Raleigh. and the surrounding bedroom communities. In Colorado, she did best in the Denver and Boulder suburbs; in Massachusetts, it was the same story.

I wouldn’t view this as a pro-Haley vote but rather an anti-Trump vote. Maybe these voters come back to Trump now that Haley is out. I assume that many will. But as noted above, Trump has a high floor and a low ceiling. He doesn’t have many votes to spare. All it takes is 5-10 percent of these Haley voters to stay home or vote for Biden in crucial swing states to potentially cost Trump the election.

Trump needs to make a peace offering to these voters, but I see little reason to believe he is inclined to do it.

Schiff’s Successful Gambit and Republicans Nominate A Holocaust Denier

Two other primary races from last night are worthy of note.

First, in California, Adam Schiff won the jungle primary for the Senate, followed by former baseball player Republican Steve Garvey. The former Dodgers star nudged out Rep. Katie Porter, who gave up a swing House seat in Orange County to wage a fruitless campaign to defeat Schiff. Porter spent nearly $28 million to win under 15 percent of the vote and finish third. What a disaster.