Panic in MAGA Land

Trump finally acknowledges political reality and pulls the nomination of Elise Stefanik to become US Ambassador to the United Nations.

I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality of American politics. If you were sent this email or are a free subscriber and would like to become a paid subscriber, you can sign up here.

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AP Photo/Andrew Harnik

This couldn’t have happened to a more deserving individual:

The White House has pulled the nomination of Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-New York) as ambassador to the United Nations, after President Donald Trump expressed concern that Republicans could lose the red seat she represents in a special election.

… The move is an acknowledgment that Republicans are nervous about their ability to pass a sweeping tax overhaul with their razor-thin majority this year. They also fear losing seats in an upcoming slate of special elections, at a time when polling and fundraising have suggested that the energy is on the Democrats’ side.

Stefanik entered Congress as a somewhat moderate Republican, but as the party moved toward Trump, she jumped to the head of the parade. She went full MAGA and steadily degraded herself to win Trump’s approval. Her reward was the UN Ambassador position, which Trump pulled out from under her as soon as it became a political problem for him. Keep in mind that Stefanik gave up her House leadership position when she was nominated and eschewed committee work since she assumed she’d be leaving the House. Now, she’ll remain in Congress as a rank-and-file backbencher with little power or influence. This situation is a helpful reminder that everything Trump touches dies.

However, there are larger political implications to this move. Trump’s message on Truth Social about pulling the nomination is telling.

“With a tight Majority I don’t want to take a chance on anyone else running for Elise’s seat.”

After an R+15 Pennsylvania Senate seat flipped on Tuesday, Republicans are clearly concerned about a potential race to fill Stefanik’s seat.

There are also two special elections in Florida on Tuesday to fill vacant House seats. In Florida-1, Republicans appear poised to win. But in Florida-6, GOP nominee Randy Fine is getting a run for his money from Democratic candidate Josh Weil.

In FL-6, GOP nominee Randy Fine has underperformed to the extent that the state and national parties have had to intervene.

• Public polling shows Fine within the margin of error in the district, which Trump won by 30 points in November.

• Private GOP polling is even scarier for Republicans: A recent survey by Tony Fabrizio, who was a chief strategist for Trump in 2024, has Fine with just a three percentage point lead, according to a person familiar with the data.

Weil has also raised more than $10 million, while Fine has raised less than $1 million.

To be clear, it would be a miracle if Democrats win this race. Trump won here by more than 30 points in November. If Weil pulls out a victory, it would be one of the most astonishing political upsets in modern American politics. But the race is close enough to have the White House panicked, and even if Weil loses by a narrow margin in a Trump +30 district, it could scare the hell out of congressional Republicans.

I apologize for tooting my horn again (though this newsletter relies on paid subscriptions), but this is what I talked about a few days ago. Negative polarization is one of the most potent forces in modern American politics. Combine that with the Democrats’ growing advantage among high-engagement voters, and the party is in a prime position to make electoral gains in special elections and the midterms in 2026. The more Trump’s approval ratings fall, the better the political landscape will be for Democrats.

Don’t get me wrong: Democrats still have their share of problems. Their approval ratings are in the toilet, and rank-and-file members are furious with the congressional leadership. But if you’re a pissed-off voter and you want to send a message to Donald Trump … the Democrats are pretty much the only game in town.