Please Stop Suggesting That Joe Biden Should Drop Out Of The 2024 Campaign
A plea for sanity and commonsense ... before I completely lose my mind
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I’m getting really tired of writing about the ridiculous notion that Joe Biden should withdraw from the 2024 presidential race, but Ezra Klein, at the New York Times, has pulled me back in.
Everybody I have talked about this, literally everybody, has brought up the same fear. Call it the Kamala Harris problem. In theory, she should be the favorite. But she polls slightly worse than Biden. Democrats don’t trust that she would be a stronger candidate. But they worry that if she wasn’t chosen it would rip the party apart. I think this is wrong on two levels.
First, I think Harris is underrated now. I’ve thought this for a while. I’ve said this before, that I think she’s going to have a good 2024. Is she a political juggernaut, a generational political talent? Probably not. But she’s a capable politician, which is one reason Biden chose her as his running mate in the first place. She has not thrived as vice president. The D.C. narrative on her has turned extremely negative. But when Kamala Harris ran campaigns as Kamala Harris, this wasn’t how she was seen. And Harris, in private settings — she’s enormously magnetic and compelling.
Her challenge would be translating that into a public persona, which is — and let’s be blunt about this — a hard thing to do when you’ve grown up in a world that has always been quick to find your faults. A world that is afraid of women being angry, of Black people being angry. A world where, for most of your life, it was demanded of you that you be cautious and careful and measured and never make a mistake. And then you get on the public stage and people say, oh, you’re too cautious and too careful and too measured. It’s a very, very, very hard bind to get out of. But maybe she can do it.
I like Ezra a lot, and I enjoy his column … but what the actual f**k is this argument. He concludes that “Maybe she can do it” after spending three paragraphs telling us all the reasons why replacing Biden with Harris is probably not the best idea. This is a hope and a dream.
While I’m sure Harris has seemed very impressive in the private sessions that Ezra has likely attended with her, she has not demonstrated the ability to take that magnetic and compelling personality and transfer it to the presidential campaign trail. She ran a lackluster 2020 nomination campaign and, since becoming Vice President, has consistently polled worse than Biden. In head-to-head polls with Trump she trails by a larger margin than the president.
Obviously, she could do better than Biden as a presidential candidate. Maybe she gives Democrats the youthful boost in the arm that they need (albeit at 59 years old). I can absolutely see the argument.
Or maybe she falls flat on her face.
But if the people calling for Biden to step down because beating Trump is so vitally important (and he's too big a risk) … how is taking a leap of faith with Harris the smart move?
It's not. Going with Harris is a riskier proposition than sticking with the guy who is the president and who is, according to the current polls, a coin flip to beat Trump in November.
But, as if Ezra's pro-Harris argument isn't bad enough … he ends up making an even worse one.
It is the party’s job to organize victory. If Harris cannot convince delegates that she has the best shot at victory, she should not and probably would not be chosen. And I don’t think that would rip the party apart. There is a ton of talent in the Democratic Party right now: Gretchen Whitmer, Wes Moore, Jared Polis, Gavin Newsom, Raphael Warnock, Josh Shapiro, Cory Booker, Ro Khanna, Pete Buttigieg, Gina Raimondo, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Chris Murphy, Andy Beshear, J.B. Pritzker — the list goes on.
Some of them would make a run at the nomination. They would give speeches at the convention, and people would actually pay attention. The whole country would be watching the Democratic convention, and probably quite a bit happening in the run-up to it, and seeing what this murderer’s row of political talent could actually do. And then some ticket would be chosen based on how those people did.
Could it go badly? Sure. But that doesn’t mean it will go badly. It could make the Democrats into the most exciting political show on earth.
"That doesn't mean it will go badly." What is happening here!?! Imagine using this argument to counsel Democrats to head to a national convention with no nominee weeks before early voting begins.
WHAT IF IT DOES GO BADLY!?!
What if Democrats can't decide on a nominee? What if Harris is passed over by a white candidate — how will that land with Black Women voters, who are arguably the most important and loyal constituency in the modern Democratic Party?
But there's a larger problem with Ezra's fantasy argument — it simply wouldn't happen.
Let's say Biden withdraws from the presidential race this week. The overwhelming likelihood is that he endorses Harris for president. Why? It would show loyalty to his running mate, ensure his legacy, and, even more importantly, block a divisive nomination fight.
With Biden's endorsement, plus access to money raised for the election and the campaign infrastructure that's already constructed, Harris would have an insurmountable advantage over any other potential nominee. The chance that any of the Democrats named above would challenge Harris is slim to none. And they would be under enormous pressure to back the Vice President to prevent a party crack-up.
But let's say a few ambitious Democrats throw caution to the wind and take on Harris. Since the filing deadline in all but 6 primaries has passed, the only major candidate on primary ballots would be Biden -- and since he is backing Harris, nearly all delegates he wins would go to her. That means that mathematically, it would be virtually impossible to beat her.
So, the idea of a "murderer's row of political talent" making their case to the delegates would simply never happen.
Here's the bottom line: You can make all the arguments you want about why Biden is a weak nominee ... and frankly, I agree with many of them. But then you have to reckon with the fact that jettisoning Biden from the ticket is likely a riskier proposition than sticking with him. If Biden withdraws, the overwhelming likelihood is that Harris will be the nominee in 2028. Is that the chance that Democrats want to take facing off against Trump in the Fall?
(And I have yet to mention the fact that Biden has shown no sign that he is considering withdrawing).
Nothing is served by these calls for Biden to step aside. It’s not going to happen. For better or for worse, Democrats will go into battle this November with Biden as their standard bearer.
Deal with it.
What’s Going On
The Alabama Supreme Court ruled yesterday that frozen embryos are children, which could make IVF illegal in the state. If this had been the law of the land 13 years ago, my daughter wouldn’t exist.
Justice Sam Alito thinks anti-gay bigots should have more rights under the law than gay Americans.
Democracy has arrived in Wisconsin!
Musical Interlude
I read that and I was equally enraged.
Great post as is the custom
So many people want an "ideal" candidate....young, charismatic, intelligent but in a down-to-earth way, good looking, camera-ready, experienced, no skeletons in the closet....basically someone from a TV show or a Hollywood star. Guess what. If there were someone like that, he would be on the ballot already.
But Joe Biden has beaten DJT once. That scares his cult a bit, so they keep pounding the drum to remove him from the race. And Dems listen. But there is no magic replacement.
We should also remind people that one of the biggest jobs for the president is to assemble an able, competent team to advise him and then let them do the hard work of making changes to government that actually help people. It's not a one-man job. And Biden picks experts to support him, unlike the sycophants on the other side.
The Biden-Harris ticket has helped the country. As we get closer to November, I hope more people come to realize that.