Quick Hits
Read along as I defend Mark Milley, explain Joe Biden's declining poll numbers, maintain my confidence Dems will get their act together, and argue for less hysteria about the state of US democracy
I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality of American politics. If you were sent this email - or you are a free subscriber - and you’d like to subscribe: you can sign up here.
Zoomcast tomorrow! Woohoo! I’ll send a link in the AM and I’ll be jumping on at 12:30 PM for at least an hour. Please come join the conversation. I’ve missed you guys!
A Problem From Hell
A couple of months ago, I wrote a scathing attack on Gen. Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, for exaggerating his role in blocking Donald Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election. So it might surprise a few readers that I've penned a new column for MSNBC defending Milley over recent reports that he tried to prevent Trump from launching a nuclear strike and that he reached out to Chinese military leaders to reassure them that a possible US attack was not imminent.
Because of the failures of existing constitutional tools intended to prevent a mentally unstable president from doing something stupid and tragic, Milley found himself in a near-impossible position.
As I write in the piece:
Even if one believes Milley stepped over the line, what options did he have if he truly believed the president was mentally unwell? It's not as if Milley is some guy off the street. He is the president's top uniformed military adviser. So his insights into the president's mental state are relevant.
It should almost go without saying that civilian control of the military is a fundamental and essential attribute of representative democracy. But so too is avoiding a nuclear holocaust. It's not realistic or wise to expect a military officer of Milley's rank and stature to allow a presidential order to be carried out if he believes the president is not in full possession of their faculties. Most of us would rather Milley refuse a presidential order to use nuclear weapons. But we also shouldn't want generals making that call.
Milley was in a truly impossible situation, and from my reading, he did everything he could to operate within the norm of civilian control of the military while also preventing a war from breaking out. It's hard to find fault with him.
But, Congress needs to get on this soon. They need to strip the president of unilateral authority to launch a nuclear attack and create a mechanism that allows the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs to warn Congress if they believe the president is unwell. As I wrote, "No general or military officer should ever be placed in the position of deciding between doing their duty and preventing the launch of a war by a mentally unstable president."
Unimpressed
Speaking of aborted coups, liberal Twitter is up in arms over the revelations that John Eastman, a legal advisor to President Trump, penned a memo in the run-up to January 6 laying out a six-step process for Vice President Mike Pence to overturn the 2020 election. I know I'm supposed to care about this story … but, for the most part, I don't.
I've made this point before here on Truth and Consequences, but the most important story about Trump's aborted coup is that it didn't come close to working. Pence didn't go along. Neither did Trump's nominal allies at the Department of Justice, including former Attorney General Bill Barr. Nor did state officials, from Georgia and Arizona to Pennsylvania and Michigan. It's worth noting that from 2016 to 2020, no public official was more of a supplicant to Trump than Pence — and no Republicans had more to lose than defying Trump's efforts to overturn the election. And yet, Pence, ultimately, still did the right thing.
This is not to say there's no reason for concern about what might happen in 2024, especially since Trump is endorsing secretary of state candidates across the country who have embraced the big lie about 2020. But politically, this is what they have to say. It doesn't mean — that when push comes to shove — they will overturn a free and fair presidential election. The only group of Republicans who truly embraced Trump's efforts to overturn the election were members of the House and Senate, who knew that it had zero chance of success. Would they have acted differently if it potentially could have succeeded? I tend to think so. A lot of folks on liberal Twitter were convinced that Republicans would reject a Gavin Newsom victory in the recent recall election in California. That didn't happen. The normative pressures against upending democracy are not as strong as we'd like them to be, but they're not nothing either.
Of course, things could be different with Trump on the ticket in 2024 (assuming he's the nominee). That's why it's essential to remain vigilant, and I'm not backing away from my oft-stated view that American democracy is in peril — but that has more to do with the partisanship of the Supreme Court and the efforts to restrict voting rights in red-state America. But we also shouldn't lose sight of the fact that the most important story from 2020 is not that Trump tried to overturn the election; it's that he failed spectacularly.
Joe Biden’s Declining Poll Numbers
Joe Biden is not having a good month.
These are really bad numbers. There is no good way to sugarcoat it. I think three factors are driving Biden's declining fortunes.
The first is quite obviously COVID. Back in the Spring and early Summer, there was a feeling that the pandemic was over. Now it's back, and even if Biden is not to blame for the COVID spike, I think it contributes to a feeling of anxiety among the electorate. It's not surprising that Biden is paying a direct political price for that.
The second is Afghanistan. Regular readers of Truth and Consequences know that I have no complaints with how Biden handled the withdrawal from Afghanistan, and I think he deserves praise for having the guts to pull the plug on US military involvement there. But, there's simply no escaping the fact that the visuals from Afghanistan were terrible. The press roundly condemned Biden, and even Democrats joined in. The criticism, I think, punctured the aura of competence around Biden, and the polls would appear to reflect that.
Lastly, the White House doesn't have a very good story to tell right now. Afghanistan was a black eye; COVID continues; the situation at the border looks terrible, and Congress isn't doing anything but bicker over Biden's legislative agenda. With all that happening, it's not surprising that the president's poll numbers would slip. The good news for Biden is that this could easily be reversed. Afghanistan will fade; COVID cases are already beginning to fall, and there's a better than even chance that Democrats pass a significant piece of legislation soon (more on that below). If vaccines rise and deaths drop, and Democrats find consensus, Biden's numbers will likely improve. If neither happens … he's in serious political trouble.
One thing that might help the president is spending more time using Republican governors as punching bags. Earlier this month, when he announced vaccine mandates for federal workers and businesses with more than 100 workers, Biden took a whack at governors like DeSantis and Abbott, who, through their indifference, are making the pandemic worse. Frankly, he should have hit them with a 2x4. These are the people responsible for the current COVID spike, and from a political standpoint, Biden needs to make them a foil. Most Americans are vaccinated, support mandates, and want to move on from the pandemic. At the very least, Biden needs to more forcefully make the case that these are the people who are holding the country back. Maybe that will happen after the current wrangling in Congress ends, but honestly, Biden has the politics of COVID on his side. He should be using that to his advantage.
It Is Always Infrastructure Week
I've been making the argument since the Spring that the Democrats will pass a massive infrastructure bill alongside a massive budget package. That prediction is being sorely tested as Democratic moderates and progressives fight over the details. Nonetheless, I stand by confidence (and if I'm wrong, I will acknowledge it). Indeed, the more fraught the negotiations become, the more likely it is that something passes because the alternative is a disaster for Democrats.
Indeed, I've largely stopped paying attention to the daily missives from Capitol Hill. For example, consider this paragraph in Politico's "Dems in Disarray" piece earlier this week.
But Democrats close to the centrists say progressives are vastly overplaying their hand. A group of five to 10 House moderates has signaled to leadership that they would be willing to let the infrastructure bill fail rather than be held hostage by liberals over the broader spending bill. It's a more attractive alternative to them than having to vote for painful tax increases to pay for an unrestrained social safety net expansion, according to a person familiar with the discussions.
As Boris Johnson said, “Donnez-moi un break.” This is classic legislative posturing, and I find it very difficult to believe that any moderate member of the House is this stupid. The collapse of Joe Biden's legislative agenda is a disaster for Democrats and particularly for moderates in swing districts. Trust me, voting for a major social safety next expansion is a much better alternative than being responsible for killing a bill that has massive support among rank-and-file Democrats.
Moreover, there are always ways in a massive spending package to win over recalcitrant members. New Jersey Congressman, Josh Gottheimer, is one of the potential holdout moderates. I'm pretty sure that full funding for the Gateway Tunnel between New Jersey and New York, which would improve commute times for his constituents, will grease the skids. Or perhaps a lifting of the SALT tax deduction, a cause celebre for Democrats like Gottheimer from high-income districts. Progressives are saying they will kill the bipartisan infrastructure bill if they don't get a vote on the budget reconciliation package. They won't. Even three-quarters of a loaf of a $3.5 trillion budget package is, I can assure you, the best loaf of bread many liberals will have ever tasted.
The bottom line here is that every legislative battle looks unwinnable … until it's won. And I would expect that this one will be no different. Everyone is playing a game of chicken right now, trying to use the leverage they have to win concessions. We've seen this movie before.
What's Going On
Most Americans oppose the restrictive provisions in Texas's new abortion law. I strongly suspect that when it comes to the politics of this issue, Republicans will find they are the proverbial dog that caught the car.
In Florida, the DeSantis administration's efforts to kill as many Florida citizens as possible from COVID-19 continues.
Now to be outdone, Mississippi is making a strong push to kill college students and faculty.
Jim Justice, the Governor of West Virginia, is super upset that he can't coach a local basketball team.
Josh Marshall has a smart take on Kyrsten Sinema's declining political fortunes.
Earlier this week I referenced Renee Graham's excellent column on unvaccinated parents but forgot to link to it. Here ya go!