Stakes Is High
Trump is accused of trying to steal the election ... but the real fight will take place in November 2024.
I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality. If you were sent this email or are a free subscriber and would like to become a paid subscriber, you can sign up here.
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If there is one lesson to take away from yesterday’s news that Donald Trump has been indicted for his efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election, it is that when I go on vacation to Cape Cod … shit is about to go down. Two years ago, I took my annual Cape Cod vacation with my family, and within a few days, Afghanistan fell to the Taliban. Now Trump has been indicted again.
God help us all if I go on vacation to Cape Cod next year.
Jokes aside, I have a few quick thoughts on the Trump indictment.
This is a huge deal, even if it feels oddly anti-climactic since much of what is revealed in Jack Smith’s indictment was largely already known. Nonetheless, a former president getting indicted for crimes committed while president is a big f’ing deal. When those crimes include an electoral coup … well, it doesn’t get any bigger than that. When people ponderously declare that such and such an event is the biggest thing ever to happen, my natural inclination veers toward skepticism. Not this time. If Trump is somehow found not guilty or is found guilty and still elected president next year, put a fork in the American experiment in self-governance. We’ll have entered full banana republic territory, and American democracy will never fully recover from the damage.
Having said that … I fully expect Trump to be found guilty, and I would be stunned, shocked, and amazed if he wins the presidency next year. To the first point, the evidence against Trump is simply overwhelming, and with a Washington, DC jury, he is unlikely to find many allies. I suppose it’s possible that Trump could get a hung jury, but the idea of a not-guilty verdict seems near-unimaginable to me.
Moreover, by not charging any of Trump’s co-conspirators, special prosecutor Jack Smith has helped ensure that a trial can be fast-tracked — and potentially occur as soon as early next year. In other words, Trump will likely be tried and potentially convicted before voters go to the polls to pick the next president.
… This means that Trump’s legal status will be on the ballot in November 2024. I’m putting a marker now, but there’s a good chance that the number one issue in the 2024 election will be a self-pardon for Trump and whether he will ever be held accountable for his crimes. There will be no good way to avoid the issue, especially since I’d expect Trump to openly state that a vote for him will be, in effect, a get-out-of-jail-free card. From a political perspective, this will likely be a disaster for the GOP because it will make 2024 a referendum on Trump, and it’s hard to see how Republicans prevail in that kind of race. There are plenty of Republicans who will continue to support Trump, even those who believe he’s committed serious crimes. But for all my clear-eyed cynicism about the American electorate, there’s ample reason to believe that a majority of our fellow citizens understand the threat that Trump represents and are not willing to vote for a convicted criminal.
Republicans, by slavishly supporting Trump — even inexplicably those who are trying to defeat him in the race for the GOP nomination — have created a simple and politically devastating binary for the 2024 election: do you or don’t you think democracy and the rule of law matters in America? Out of cynical political expediency, Republicans are willing to shatter the foundation of American democracy … and now, I suspect, they will find out.
A Moral Catastrophe
As for the larger political implications, I think the Atlantic’s Tom Nichols gets this right:
The rest of us, as a nation but also as individuals, can no longer indulge the pretense that Trump is just another Republican candidate, that supporting Donald Trump is just another political choice, and that agreeing with Trump’s attacks on our democracy is just a difference of opinion.
Even if one believes that Trump hasn’t committed a crime (an untenable position but one that I’ll humor for the sake of the argument I’m making), there are far larger ethical and moral questions. A former president who has committed the acts detailed in Jack Smith’s indictment has forfeited their right to hold elected office in the United States of America. Period.
Actively seeking to subvert the will of the American voter, imperiling the lives of countless Americans, including Trump’s own vice president, knowingly lying about an election outcome, and obstructing the peaceful transition of power (as sacred and miraculous a tradition as there is in America’s democratic history) are monstrous and unforgivable acts, irrespective of their criminality. That so many Republicans are willing to ignore the substance of what Trump has done — for near-term political advantage — is a reminder of the deep and corrosive sickness that has taken over the party.
The rest of us, including political reporters, must stop pretending that Republican support for Trump is acceptable or legitimate. They are backing a man who, if elected, will destroy American democracy. It is unpatriotic, un-American, and morally depraved. Trump is a sick and deranged figure whose best potential defense is that he’s a deluded moron …
… but those who continue to make excuses for Trump are far worse. That’s been true since he won the White House, and it’s even more true today. Supporting Trump is not a “choice.” It’s a moral catastrophe.
What’s Going On
Read the full indictment against Trump.
Kamala Harris has had a pretty good week.
We’re all Angels fans now.
I’ll likely have more to say about the latest NYT poll showing Biden and Trump tied … but my short take is that I’m not paying attention to general election polls 15 months before Election Day. And neither should you.
Musical Interlude
shit is about to go down.
big f’ing deal
Michael,
I greatly enjoy reading your column. Your ideas are sharp, perceptive and your writing, for the most part, is crisp and clear. But I'm having a problem with the profanity - or almost profanity ("f'ing) that you seem to be using more and more. Please know that I am not a prude and frequently lace a sentence with 4-letter words when the occasion demands. But really, was "f'ing" the only adjective you could find? And I grant that " shit is about to go down" is vivid, but I can think of at least five ways you might have said it using a tad less street slang. So how about it?
Preach!