Stupid Is As Stupid Does
Why Donald Trump gives Joe Biden hope for keeping his job. Is Haley-mentum upon us? Also a quick take on the Yemen airstrikes and a vinyl-tastic musical interlude.
I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality. If you were sent this email or are a free subscriber and would like to become a paid subscriber, you can sign up here.
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What I Got Right
I’ve been hard at work putting together my “what I got wrong” column, but in the meantime — as I prepare to head to Detroit on Sunday to see the Lions in their first home playoff game in 30 years — here’s something I got correct!
The expectations are sky-high, but so too is the confidence among Lions fans that this team is not the same old Lions that have broken our hearts, year after year. Anything less than a division title and a home playoff game will be a disappointment.
Simply putting these words to paper is playing with fire. As any sports fan will tell you, there is no such thing as jinxes … except when it comes to major sporting events.
Go LIONS!!!!
Airstrikes in Yemen
A few quick thoughts on the unfolding situation in Yemen.
The United States and five of its allies on Thursday carried out military strikes against more than a dozen targets in Yemen controlled by the Iranian-backed Houthi militia, in an expansion of the war in the Middle East that the Biden administration had sought to avoid for the past three months.
The American-led air and naval strikes came in response to more than two dozen Houthi drone and missile attacks against commercial shipping in the Red Sea since November, and after warnings to the Houthis in the past week from the Biden administration and several international allies of serious consequences if the salvos did not stop.
This was the inevitable response to weeks of Houthi missile and drone strikes in the Red Sea against commercial shipping, which has led to thousands of ships being diverted from the Suez Canal waterway. The US had issued several ultimatums to the Houthis, though to no avail, as the attacks have continued.
To be sure, few experts expect that this will immediately deter the Houthis, who have seemingly welcomed US intervention in the hopes of sparking a wider regional conflict.
Still, I don’t see how the US and its allies had much choice here. The impact of the Houthi attacks, which began after October 7 and were a response to the Israeli military offensive in Gaza, has had a significant effect on international commerce. Ships diverted from the Red Sea have been forced to sail around the southern tip of Africa, adding two weeks to their journey. Neither the US nor key allies could sit back and allow these strikes to occur without a military response.
Having said that, I think we may be looking at a situation in which the US and its allies are forced to muddle through, hitting military targets in Yemen in the hopes that eventually, it degrades enough of the Houthis capabilities that the shipping attacks stop. The United States has no interest in putting ground troops in Yemen, and I am pretty confident that won’t happen. It’s hardly an ideal situation, and it’s far from clear what the end game is here, but that’s where I imagine this will go. I wish I had a better prognosis, but sometimes there is uncertainty, and this feels like one of those times.
Donald Trump: The Political Gift That Keeps On Giving
The other night on Twitter (I will never call it X), I made a flippant observation that I actually think might sum up the 2024 presidential campaign.
One underappreciated aspect of presidential politics — and a major advantage for Biden heading into 2024 — is that it’s a lot to easier to win the presidency when your opponent is an idiot
What spurred this comment was something Trump said at a town hall event on Wednesday. When asked about the overturning of Roe v. Wade, which was made possible by three justices he appointed to the Supreme Court, Trump said. “I did it. I’m proud to have done it. … It was a miracle.”
As I wrote in my MSNBC column this week, “There is, quite simply, no greater political vulnerability for Republicans right now than abortion. The issue has motivated Democratic partisans, expanded the gender gap in American politics, and, arguably, was the main reason Democrats overperformed in the 2022 midterm elections and the 2023 off-year elections. And on Wednesday night, Trump didn’t just lean into the issue. He gave it a bear hug. There is perhaps no greater gift that Trump can give to his political opponents than trumpeting his role in overturning Roe v. Wade. One can fully expect to see this quote appear in millions of dollars’ worth of campaign ads this fall.”
I’m not exaggerating when I say this is one of the stupider things I’ve ever seen a presidential candidate say. The irony of Trump’s unforced error is that he’s previously said that Republicans should play down abortion because it’s such a motivating issue for Democrats.
The thing is, this was only one of two idiotic gaffes from Trump this week. On Monday, “his criminal lawyers went to federal court and argued that a president has near complete immunity from crimes committed in office. Only a president, they asserted, who has first been impeached by the House and then convicted by the Senate can be charged and prosecuted for a crime committed while in office.
This led to an inevitable question from one of the three federal appellate judges conducting the hearing: “Could a president who ordered SEAL Team 6 to assassinate a political rival and is not impeached, would he be subject to criminal prosecution?”
According to Trump’s lawyer, D. John Sauer, the answer is only if he were impeached and convicted first.”
From a political standpoint, a presidential candidate saying he has the right to kill his political rivals and not be held accountable unless 2/3rds of the United States Senate agrees is insane.
The problem for Trump is that this kind of thing will keep happening. “Trump is a politician and man of such poor impulse control and so prone to self-aggrandizement that he simply can’t help but make dumb, politically inadvisable statements.”
There are two ways for an incumbent president to win reelection: they can either run on their record or against their opponent. Biden is so unpopular that the first path will likely not work. But Trump and his idiocy make the second one a very viable option.
Haley-mentum!!
Remember how, a couple of weeks ago, I suggested that Nikki Haley had some growing momentum in the GOP presidential race? Well, lookie here.
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