Sweet Little Lies
Herschel Walker can't tell the truth; Rep. Barry Loudermilk got caught lying about his side business as a Capitol tour guide; and the polls don't lie -- nobody likes Dr. Oz.
I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality of American politics. If you received this email - or you are a free subscriber - and you’d like to subscribe: you can sign up below.
Today is one of those days where there are no big themes I’m looking to address, so I’m going to do a round-up of some of the more interesting political and foreign policy stories this week.
Pennslyvania Polka
It’s one poll, so don’t freak out (always look to polling averages), but this is a slightly unexpected result for the Pennsylvania Senate and Governor’s races.
Senate:
Fetterman - 46%
Oz - 37 %
Governor:
Shapiro — 44%
Mastriano — 40%
I assumed that Shapiro would be doing better than Fetterman, considering the latter’s health issues, Mastriano’s extremism, and Shapiro’s popularity in the state. But I hadn’t fully considered this: While Mastriano’s favorabilities are 36/37, for Oz, they are 28/50. That is simply dreadful and is likely a by-product of all the negative ads run against him by his Republican primary opponent David McCormick. In contrast, Fetterman and Shapiro have virtually identical favorabilities — 45/27 for the former and 45/28 for the later.
Part of the problem for Oz is that he’s not viewed all that favorably among Republicans, but check out his numbers among independents: 17-57 (-40). In contrast, Joe Biden is at 35-60 among independents in Pennsylvania. Ouch. When you’re viewed more unfavorably than Joe Biden these days that’s bad news.
Of course, election day is a long way away, and there are still questions about Fetterman’s health, but Oz is facing a steep climb. As for the governor’s race, Shapiro has yet to unleash his campaign war chest on Mastriano in the form of negative ads. I would expect that when all the votes are counted, he does better than Fetterman.
Herschel Walker Has A Truth-Telling Problem
This Daily Beast story is just a gut punch for Herschel Walker:
For years, former football star turned Republican senatorial candidate Herschel Walker has expressed an enormous pride and love for his adult son, while taking a principled stand against fatherless households and deadbeat dads—specifically in the Black community.
“And I want to apologize to the African-American community, because the fatherless home is a major, major problem,” Walker said in a September 2020 interview, adding that he had been “like a father to some of those kids that had never had fathers.”
The month before, Walker—who co-parented his 22-year-old son, Christian with both his ex-wife and current wife—told right-wing internet personalities Diamond and Silk that if you have “a child with a woman, even if you have to leave that woman… you don’t leave the child.”
What Walker hasn’t publicly acknowledged is that he has a second son, who has apparently been estranged from his biological father since his birth a decade ago.
While I suppose this falls more in the hypocrisy category than lies … Walker’s inability to tell the truth is nothing if not impressive.
He’s lied about being a member of the Cobb County Police Department AND an FBI agent.
He lied about graduating from the University of Georgia and being class valedictorian.
He lied about running a non-profit for veterans.
He’s exaggerated his success as a businessman.
He’s claimed to own businesses that don’t exist.
You get the idea. And I haven’t even mentioned that Walker once threatened to kill his ex-wife or that he seems to have no understanding of how the Senate or federal law-making works.
Voters in Georgia may not be completely aware of Walker’s liabilities since he ran unopposed in the GOP Senate primary, but there is a lot of baggage here. Georgia is going to be a tough state for Democrats this Fall, but I have to think that Walker’s endless list of mistruths and exaggerations — and his completely lack of qualifications — will become a serious problem for his campaign.
The Story Of The Day
So I’m not entirely sure what to make of this story:
There are a couple of reasons why this is a big deal. First, Rep. Barry Loudermilk of Georgia denied that he gave anyone a Capitol tour on January 5, which pretty clearly appears to be a lie. Moreover, he led people through areas of the Capitol that are, as the Committee said, “not typically of interest to tourists: hallways, staircases, and security checkpoints.” Moreover, one of the people on that tour was later recorded making threats against top congressional Democrats. So you add all that together and it paints a pretty damning picture for Rep. Loudermilk.
Does this mean that these individuals were doing reconnaissance of the Capitol? It sure looks that way, but I suppose there could be other explanations (though honestly I’m not sure why else you’d be taking pictures of security checkpoints). Does it mean Loudermilk was aware that members of his tour group intended to attack the Capitol? That seems a lot harder to prove, but it is suspicious that Loudermilk lied about giving a tour the day before January 6 — or that so far he has refused to speak to the January 6 Committee. I don’t want to jump to conclusions about what this video means, but suffice to say Rep. Loudermilk has some serious explaining to do.
Things Are Getting Ugly for Ukraine
I’m working on a longer piece about the situation in Ukraine, but it’s becoming increasingly clear that Kyiv is losing its war with Russia.
Now that Moscow has limited its territorial goals to the Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine its military has shown far greater effectiveness. Unfortunately, Ukraine lacks the weaponry to hold off Russia’s military advantages and is losing soldiers at a rapid and potentially unsustainable clip. This doesn't mean all is lost for Ukraine. But we’re getting closer to the point of Russia achieving its latest territorial aspirations in the Donbas and the land bridge between Russia and Crimea — and I struggle to see how Ukraine can reverse that situation. At this point, their strategy remains focused on not losing more territory — and rightfully so. And it also remains an open question of how much longer the West is willing to sustain its support for Ukraine as it bears the economic costs of the war.
A couple of weeks ago, people were talking about Ukraine winning the war — including a spokesperson for the National Security Council. That never seemed realistic and now we’re seeing that the opposite was always more likely to occur. Russia would prevail militarily, albeit in a much more limited fashion than they had initially hoped. A lot of folks in the West are not going to like this outcome (and frankly none of us should be happy about it). But there needs to be a greater recognition that Ukraine is likely going to be forced into some painful compromises with Moscow; and it' may happen sooner rather than later.
What’s Going On
This is a pretty damning piece by William Neuman on the Biden Administration’s poor job planning the recent Summit of the Americas. I’ve largely defended Biden’s foreign policy performance, but that’s becoming increasingly difficult. The evidence of drift and inattention is becoming too much to ignore.
More than 100 Republican primary winners have endorsed Trump’s false election fraud claims … which is sub-optimal.
Michael Kofman and Ryan Evans talk about the increasingly difficult military situation for Ukraine.
“Barry” might be the best show on TV today (if “Better Call Saul” didn’t exist).
Musical Interlude