The 8,529,148 Truth and Consequences Post About Joe Manchin
All I want for Christmas is to never have to write about the Senator from West Virginia again.
I’m Michael A. Cohen, and this is Truth and Consequences: A no-holds-barred look at the absurdities, hypocrisies, and surreality of American politics. If you received this email - or you are a free subscriber - and you’d like to subscribe: you can sign up here.
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Someone Is Being A Pain In The Ass … Again
As some of you might have heard, Joe Manchin killed the Build Back Better bill on Sunday morning. I have a few thoughts on this!
First, (as I wrote in my subscriber-only post on Monday), his move is a complete FU to his fellow Democrats and President Biden:
On Sunday, “Manchin could have reiterated his concerns with the BBB bill or perhaps called on Democrats to rebuild the legislation from scratch. Or he could have kept his mouth shut and kept negotiating. Instead, without warning, he pulled the plug dealing the White House and his fellow Democrats a grievous political embarrassment. Manchin not only screwed over President Biden, but he is screwing over the entire Democratic Party. BBB already passed in the House of Representatives and is supported by 49 out of 50 Democrats in the Senate. Think about all the moderate House Dems who voted for BBB and now have left out to dry by Manchin. They will now be dealing with Republican attacks for voting “yay” on nearly $2 billion in new spending that didn’t become law. I honestly don’t know how Manchin shows his face in the Senate cloakroom after this.” (you can read the whole post here and my seven takeways from Manchin’s announcement with a paid subscription to Truth and Consequences).
Of course, what’s even worse than Manchin’s betrayal of his fellow Democrats is his disregard for the millions of Americans who would have benefited from BBB and the future generations who are relying on politicians today to deal with the consequences of climate change tomorrow.
As I noted in my MSNBC column yesterday, what is so frustrating about Manchin’s actions are the nonsensical and incoherent explanations he is offering as justification for them.
According to Manchin, “Build Back Better would ‘reshape our society in a way that leaves our country even more vulnerable to the threats we face.’”
What are those threats, you might ask?
“… a staggering debt of more than $29 trillion and inflation taxes that are real and harmful to every hard-working American.”
“… COVID-19 cases ris(ing) at rates we have not seen since the height of this pandemic.”
“… increasing geopolitical uncertainty as tensions rise with both Russia and China.”
Of all these lame excuses, the increase in the national debt seems to be Manchin’s biggest concern. It’s why he’s demanding that every provision of the bill have permanent funding and insisting that it reduce the deficit. In Manchin’s view, America’s ability to “quickly and effectively respond to these pending threats” will be more difficult if America’s debt burden continues to rise.
Here’s the problem: there are real threats at home — ones far more serious than the national debt) — that will go ignored if BBB fails.
Without the Build Back Better plan, Americans will soon stop receiving the monthly child tax credit, which in just a few months significantly cut child poverty and hunger rates. It’s estimated that if the child tax credit becomes permanent, it could reduce child poverty by as much as 40 percent.
One might argue that child poverty — and the inability of millions of parents to provide food, shelter and sustenance for their children, thus reducing their upward mobility — is a serious threat to America’s future.
What about universal pre-kindergarten? According to a recent survey by the National Bureau of Economic Research, 3- and 4-year-olds in universal pre-K programs are more likely to graduate from high school and go to college. Other studies have shown that attendance in pre-K programs makes children less likely to be arrested, go on welfare and be unemployed as adults. Pre-K participants also make more money as adults.
One might argue that having a generation of kids with poorer life trajectories is a threat to America’s long-term future that the country’s politicians, including Manchin, should address.
Then, of course, there’s also the issue of climate change. BBB would allocate close to half a trillion dollars to mitigate the effects of a warming planet and reduce US greenhouse gas emissions. There is nothing more vital to America’s future than spending this money.
Without Build Back Better, American child poverty will continue to be among the highest in the developed world. So, too, will infant and maternal mortality rates. Life expectancy and educational outcomes will continue to trail those of peer countries. Climate change will get worse, and the U.S. will be largely unprepared for its inevitable impact.
Manchin’s concerns over debt are not only misstated and overwrought, they will prevent the country from dealing with the actual threats to the American people that are happening right now.
Keep Hope Alive
As bad as things seem right now, I don’t think progressives should give up hope on BBB. According to the Washington Post, Manchin offered a counter-proposal to the White House last week, “saying he would accept a $1.8 trillion package that included universal prekindergarten for 10 years, an expansion of Obamacare and hundreds of billions of dollars to combat climate change.”
This proposal leaves out an extension of the Child Tax Credit (CTC), which as noted above would reduce child poverty by 40 percent (and ends in a few weeks). That would be a very difficult pill for Biden and progressive Democrats to swallow. However, Manchin’s proposal would fully fund a universal pre-K program, maintain climate spending from the original legislation passed in the House, and also expand and extend Obamacare subsidies. All three would represent huge policy wins.
Is it unfair that one myopic and attention-crazed Senator gets to dictate the details of a major spending package? Is it political malpractice to excise a direct monthly subsidy to low-income families? Is leaving child care subsidies and paid family leave off the table a historic missed opportunity? Unfortunately, the answer to all three questions is a resounding yes. Yet, as painful as it might be for Democrats, they would be absolute fools not to take this deal. And as Jonathan Chait argues, pass the bill and then see if you can strike a deal with Mitt Romney to pass an alternate version of the Child Tax Credit. Listen, I don’t like it either, but right now, getting a deal — any deal and especially one that focuses on the threat from climate change — is vitally important. As I noted the other day, the clock is ticking on Democratic dominance in Washington, and anything Democrats can enact in Congress — even flawed, inadequate legislation — is a major success.
Manchin Tidbits
I’ve received a few emails and comments on social media about Manchin’s announcement on Sunday, so here’s a quick take on some of the more prominent questions.
“Progressives shouldn’t have voted for the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill because once they did, it took away their leverage with Manchin on the BBB.”
It’s not hard to see why people feel this way, but I don’t find this argument credible. One throughline in Manchin’s approach to BBB is a consistent refusal to allow liberals to pressure him. If progressives had refused to vote on the infrastructure, I imagine Manchin would have called their bluff and allowed both bills to die. Standing up to the left seems to be more important to Manchin than any policy accomplishment he can achieve, Bottom line: if one Senator is willing to be the Stay-Puft Marshmallow Man (i.e., the destructor of worlds), there’s not much that can be done to persuade him.
“Biden should simply bypass Congress and issue executive orders to further his agenda.”
Amanda Marcotte makes this case at Salon, and on one issue, in particular, I strongly agree with her: Biden should act more aggressively on forgiving student loan debt. But her other suggestions don’t necessarily move the ball forward, and, ultimately, that’s the problem with executive orders: they have limited effectiveness. The name of the game is legislation, and that’s where Biden’s focus needs to be. Of course, there’s no reason why Biden can’t be aggressive on both fronts, but one tool is a heck of a lot stronger than the other.
“Manchin is fundamentally corrupt, and his opposition to BBB is all about feathering his nest.”
Don’t get me wrong, Joe Manchin is a selfish jerk, and his refusal to compromise with his fellow Democrats is malignant behavior, but the corruption argument does not persuade me. Manchin has significant interests in the coal industry, but every West Virginia senator will protect coal whether they have financial interests or not. My go-to explanation for why politicians do what they do is that they perceive their actions to be in their political self-interest. I think, in the case of Manchin, he’s looking out for number one. And from a political perspective, his actions make sense. As long as he’s been in national politics, Manchin has cultivated the image of a Democratic senator who stands up to the left. This is yet one more example. It also seems increasingly clear that what prompted Manchin’s announcement on Sunday was his anger over a White House press release that specifically referenced Manchin’s opposition to the BBB bill. This is yet another political truism that serves as one of my go-to explanations: personal pique trumps everything else.
Of course, if there’s no deal at all I’m not sure it helps Manchin politically, which makes me think that BBB will eventually pass.
One interesting wrinkle to the coal conversation is this article by Grace Segers in the New Republic.
Tucked away in the version of the Build Back Better Act passed by the House—Section 138502, to be precise—there is a small paragraph extending an excise tax that funds a trust providing benefits to certain coal miners with coal workers’ pneumoconiosis, commonly known as “black lung disease.” The current rate for the tax, the primary revenue source for the Black Lung Disability Trust Fund, is set to expire at the end of the year; the Build Back Better Act would extend it through the end of 2025.
Interestingly, the United Mine Workers of America put out a statement on Tuesday urging Manchin to support the BBB bill. If anything is going to get him to reverse course, it would be this kind of pressure.
What’s Going On
Read Azmat Khan’s magnificent reporting on the true story behind the US air war.
Musical Interlude
I haven’t done one of these in a while, but in honor of my youngest, who turned eight on December 18, here’s a fantastic Grateful Dead show from December 18, 1973. It’s tough to go wrong with a ‘73 show, though it’s a year that tends to get short shrift compared to ‘72, ‘74, or ‘77. The playing that year was crisp, clean, smooth, and generally smoking as the band added several new songs to their repertoire. The major highlights are a great “China/Rider” at the end of the first set, a gorgeous “Weather Report Suite” —> “Dark Star,” and an early 70s “Wharf Rat” is generally always a winner. While they are not the best songs from the show, check out “Brown Eyed Woman” and “They Love Each Other” for some delicious, funky greatness. I only mention these because it’s a good reminder that when the Dead were on, even shorter numbers in the first set would kill.
If you’re not yet tired of hearing the sound of my voice, check out my conversation with Pete Dominick about Manchin et al.
I agree with you. Half a loaf of bread is better than no bread at all.
Manchin vs. Christie for Prez in '24. A contest for the ages!